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Avery M @averym.bsky.social

This is simple geopolitics. Israel came to Trump crying for an intervention because they were losing the war they started. Trump accurately intervened and ended the war much earlier than Iran expected. 130 House Dems are saying thank you to Trump for saving Israel.

jun 26, 2025, 2:09 pm • 1 0

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Mike Jones @mikepjones1.bsky.social

Fascinating. Can you offer a source for ‘Israel was losing the war’, or indeed one that says that Trump’s intervention was worth a bucket of warm spit?

jun 26, 2025, 2:12 pm • 0 0 • view
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Avery M @averym.bsky.social

Israel was hoping the war would be over in a few weeks: www.haaretz.com/israel-news/... Iran was prepared for a 2-6 month war: www.iranintl.com/en/202506228... Israel had aimed for swift regime change using allies inside Iran and was caught off guard when this didn't happen

jun 26, 2025, 2:17 pm • 1 0 • view
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Avery M @averym.bsky.social

Israel had air dominance... in the western third of Iran, a country with 90 million people. They were limited in targets by their professed regime change mission. Meanwhile, Israel air defenses were unable to stop Iranian bombs from taking out chunks of downtown Tel Aviv. This will cost billions

jun 26, 2025, 2:22 pm • 0 0 • view
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Mike Jones @mikepjones1.bsky.social

Air defences can never provide a 100% shield against anything. Especially not ballistics. And Israel knew very well that Iran had thousands of missiles available. If they really expected the war to be short, they are indeed profoundly stupid

jun 26, 2025, 2:27 pm • 1 0 • view
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Mike Jones @mikepjones1.bsky.social

> Israel had aimed for swift regime change Wow, thank you. I had no idea they were dumb enough to expect that (or material damage to the nuclear programme either)

jun 26, 2025, 2:25 pm • 0 0 • view
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Avery M @averym.bsky.social

I think there was an intelligence failure involved. I don't know what Mossad thinks, but ordinary Zionists and Israelis I know believe strongly in an imminent Pahlavi takeover. Israel deployed 700+ domestic agents to decapitate the regime, who were mostly caught in flagrante delicto.

jun 26, 2025, 2:43 pm • 1 0 • view
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Mike Jones @mikepjones1.bsky.social

October 7th was an intelligence failure. Not really seeing that this time. I suspect both would *prefer* to call a halt now and that both are *capable* of sustaining the war indefinitely, but I’m not seeing that as indicative of who has ‘won’, nor any sign that US involvement has had an impact

jun 26, 2025, 3:01 pm • 0 0 • view
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Mike Jones @mikepjones1.bsky.social

Israel has killed a fair number of pretty senior Iranian officials at the cost of rallying Iranians to the flag (& done negligible damage to the nuclear programme). Against which Iran has killed an few Israeli civilians, using relatively expensive weaponry (Correlli Barnett would not be impressed).

jun 26, 2025, 3:01 pm • 1 0 • view