What if... the US becomes an autocratic state (following some kind of provocation/ruse) - Does it partner with Russia, China, and India to divide up the world, destroy the EU, capture the UN, rule over N&S America? - Does it become a religious, rural, gated Gilead or Silicon Valley techno-fascism?
I think there’s more danger of Europe becoming Orbanized.
European Union has many more veto players and layers, which makes this much more difficult.
I doubt it. In fact, this may make Orbanization more popular and thus easier. Look what happened to the Supreme Court candidate in Germany recently.
Could be, but I did not provide an estimate of likelihood. This is just an exercise to ask „what if, then what“. How about combining those two scenarios: an autocratic US aiding the rise of Orban and his kleptocratic and populist friends to real power…
Well, that's what the US is doing right now.
You might laugh at this, find it ridiculous. Fine, but please take a minute and play it through in your head. What does it mean for you, your organisation, your country? If you are powerful: how can you prevent this? If you are not: how can you prepare?
Background: - www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/o... - www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/w... - carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
During the first term, I still laughed, but now, with all that has already happened, none of your points seem to be totally unrealistic. I am really curious to see how the midterms will play out.
The ideology that seeks this has too many contradictions -destroy a federal system and substitute a confederation that allows a band of technoaristocrats to rise. This will erode institutions, and if you can resist economic influence, the US' ability to affect events will diminish over time.
It's far more likely that the US becomes a dysfunctional non-entity whose military and economy becomes a reflection of a broken society: hollowed out by complete mismanagement.
I guess dysfunction and authoritarianism come together, but, again, not dabbling in likeliness thinking here. US as non-entity: a tapestry of small corporate entities in @nealstephenson.bsky.social Snow Crash, a decaying society like in Children of Men, or a total collapse, a la Mad Max?
US conglomeration of many different regions, seems balkanized hybrid of all the above, corn belt survivalsts palo alto metropole, global order in shambles all the plans of escape luxury communism unsustainable
America’s complexity keeps my code looking simple.
No matter what happens, we're screwed in Europe.
Nothing here is physics, not even climate change or AI are set in stone. All of it is manageable, if we get our act together and play it well. But yeah, seeing how we act at every stage of this spiral, we’re in danger. Anyway, „die Lage ist aussichtslos, aber nicht ernst“.
??? It is happening today already !!! US is already trying to split up the world with Russia and Israel. China and India are coming next. The destruction of international organizations like WHO, UN, WTO is in full swing and progressing relatively fast. North Africa is already their battlefield
I would not say the US is already authoritarian. It has most of the hallmarks of Orbanism, checks by Congress and the rep. party are off, but the press, judiciary, civil society and states are still resisting.
The Handmaid's Tale comes to mind
Let's focus on keeping democracy resilient instead.
Yes it does, with everything mentioned above