honestly this was very predictable if you could a) accurately recall the political consequences of the 2020 protests and b) take public opinion as it actually existed in 2025. impossible difficulty for a non-trivial portion of the professional political commentary class
It's because most of us are not monsters.
The fact that the protests didn’t break out into violence - despite Trump’s best efforts - screwed up all his plans.
If dems won't gum up the works in Congress, it doesn't really matter what his polling is.
Trump is fragile enough to go to war with Iran as an excuse for pulling the military back out of L.A. and not sending them into other U.S. cities. Never underestimate the lengths he'll go to when he feels unloved and embarrassed.
It’s having an effect in the middle of nowhere too. My MAGA neighbor is mad about what they are seeing too. And I got him to agree yrump is probably a false prophet. Haven’t gotten him to the anti christ but yrump keeps this up we may get there soon.
Gotta convince them the MAGA hat is the mark of the beast too
That’s the next nail lol. Everyone is mad but confused on the targets. I did ask him why he was ranting about Democrats when Texas has been in the hands of the GOP for 30 years. And then asked him what he was going to do if Jesus turned out to be an ET instead of a white man. His head was 🫨
Important though that they feel free to say this much.
Or don’t but are being brave. People are being killed. And lives ruined. But media and individuals in and apart of it have been braver than given credit for sometimes. Or a good deal. But it’s all of our right to free press that has been and is being impaired.
When we remember that most of the political commentary class relies on corporate media for their jobs, and then we recall that corporate media are owned by millionaires and billionaires whose interests align with Trump and Republicans, then all of their inability to understand things makes sense
HEY AMERICA! LA IS JUST FINE! WE JUST NEED TO GET ALL THE PERFORMATIVE CLOWNS OUT OF HERE!!!
Somebody should draw a dick on his face
🏆🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Perfect!
🏆 nice! 🤣
Perfect addition!
I'd like donate to the defense fund of the Legend who pulls off Operation Taco-Gets-A-Forehead Dick.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Donations to the #WildHornets are always welcome...😜💙💛 bsky.app/profile/wild...
A politician or activist who takes public opinion as unmovable is an incredibly bad politician or activist.
I'm not telling you new stuff when I say that the opinion on "should slavery be ended by constitutional amendment" shifted quite a bit from 1860 to 1865...
Don’t think anything’s inevitable abt this tho. Normies really don’t like the masked goons as cops, the deployment of Nat’l Guard etc., glaring abuses like shooting the Aussie reporter. Protests were overwhelming peaceful, & massive No Kings protest underscored that. Trump wrecked his own…
optics by overplaying his hand. But things cd go differently if protests turn violent on large scale and if (big if) Trump is smart enough to dial his violence & intimidation way down.
I don't think he is that smart, though. His playbook in 2020 was escalate, always escalate. The only political move he knows is to play to his MAGA base
I think yr right. And he has a powerful instinct to bully, which he can’t keep down. Plus, to the extent there’s rational calculation involved, he’s prbly betting he can suppress voting one way or another in 2026.
You know they're friends right? Co-hosted a podcast?
True statement there
american political pundits’ exegesis of news items reminds me of the most rabid KJV-only fanatics, but with “my priors as of 2010” in place of the king james bible
idk it's still hard to square this with the 2024 election result. If we are going to say "yes you did vote for mass deportations and you held a sign saying so" then why is a backlash obvious? Why would a political pro see it as obvious?
It’s so weird to me that the commentary class really thought we had turned hard right in a very close election
They are buffoons.
im confused when NYT daily interviewed Governor of California they kept telling him how can you not support the raids the people love Trump abducting people??? someone help explain this like I am a very small child (or a host of the The Daily)
The thing is the Media is going to start focusing more on Iran in the next couple weeks and I bet Trumps numbers start to get better. That happened after Kilmar Ábrego García started to lose focus on the MSM.
Show this on Fox so they’re aware!
I would say deliberate amnesia, not difficulty. The pundits yearn for the fascist mines.
He’s at his most vulnerable right now. He’s broken every promise, his lackeys are overreaching everywhere, his brain is failing. Go after him tooth and nail, all media!
Take the polls in Klan Land USA, and the it's 100% Not Far Enough.
It’s been his “best issue” because he had cnn and every other major news organization amplifying his white supremacist spiel. Fuck all of the them and stop giving them oxygen
that's right: bsky.app/profile/gell...
Did you overlap with Enten at 538?
Already a subscriber!!
Lmao deserved shade.
Only matters if we get to hold a fair election ever again.
Call off the troops trump. You sck
That press class is solely interested in horseraces. The rest they consign as boring. Anything for attention and they've decided that politics must be sports
It’s why they tell us about the implications after elections instead of informing us and educating us prior to them We’re considered the audience, not the participants
Consumer vs citizen :/
We don’t even get product reviews, lolsigh
Well actually...
Miller helped Trump get elected with hysterical bs coverage re the border. Trump was never super ideological and rarely listened to anyone. But Trump’s manipulative puppet master (Miller) is an extremist. Many Americans see the injustice of targeting and harming innocent people. #immigration #ice
I would add you also need to c) trust your own instincts and bullshit detector
Yeah, but could you swipe a vaguely vertical then horizontal line on a monitor while talking?
Why poll something that is obviously wrong? Do we poll if it is ok to eat shit? Just say it is wrong damn it! Smh.#stupidmedia
It's a symptom of our national disease that we allow such people to remain gainfully employed as political commentators.
Damn I only ever heard his voice before, Harry Enten is beautiful...
the great thing about this business of course is that there is no particular relationship between “being right” and “being influential”
Yes this sentiment really hit home when it was discovered that everyone in the Biden Admin read Matt Yglesias’ newsletter.
what I find particularly insufferable is the “my position is moderate/reasonable and therefore correct” and no matter how many times they are proven wrong they are unable to adjust.
I am sure this will somehow be wrapped around to attack or blame queer people, or women ( from Democrats, natch). I don't know how, but they definitely seem to try to find a way
See also: everyone who was wrong about Iraq saying the exact same things about Iran and still being taken seriously by the mainstream press.
This was always Nate Silver's philosophy, until it wasn't. Enten is basically picking up the torch.
There are also no consequences for "being wrong" or "causing harm"
And that makes it all the more dangerous when wizened Dem party leaders worship this commentary class, insisting the party must follow "who's influential." It goes beyond Trump: Schumer and MSM can convince each other that supporting Netanyahu is essential for Dems, even if most Dems disagree.
Schumer literally called for Netanyahu to be replaced and refused to shake his hand. I would maybe scrutinize why you made the assumption that of all the senators, it would be Schumer who convinced everyone to support Netanyahu. Most Reform Jews support Israel but hate Netanyahu.
You can also see this with Bernie. He’s a Zionist (so is anyone who believes in a two-state solution), but hates Netanyahu. The only reason I could tell when the Knesset elections were was by my friends’ parents complaining about Netanyahu.
(...And even if most Dem *voters*, including Jewish voters sick of seeing Israel run by the hard right, *overwhelmingly* agree.)
It’s a right-of-center take so it’s got to be correct. That’s what right means
i think there used to be a link, but it’s essentially evaporated at this point.
Well, being wrong about every single important issue (and a lot more besides) worked out for William F. Buckley. I think maybe some people took that as aspirational rather than cautionary.
Enten is the most annoying person on TV
What's annoying about him?
He has a 1940s Newark NJ furniture salesman vibe and gets really excited about polls in a way that grinds my gears
Him getting excited about his work is a plus for me, not a negative. I like people nerding out.
Yeah, I don't know if this is the case here, but I've noticed a lot of people are really uncomfortable with genuine enthusiasm or with people who aren't self conscious. "Try hard" or "cringe" or whatever- but I love watching people who are good at what they do having fun doing it. It's the best.
But he’s such a sweet guy. I’ll take him being a ridiculously enthusiastic cornball over 99.999% of commentators.
enten is right though!
this is how I found out Piers Morgan retired
If there is a relationship, it is inverse (see Tetlock 1990).
According to both Supreme Court and legacy NYT insiders, the only measure of accuracy that matters is how it makes their Upper East Side dinner party guests feel
Being influential means people agree with you no matter what, so you find your information bubble to be increasingly inaccurate without any negative shaping.
Or even a background of understanding issues and being influential. The anti-expertise bias of the populace is stunning.
It’s a matter of what you stand for more than any calls you make.
…or accountable.
“Grrrrrreat” /s
If there was, about 80% of your opinion writer colleagues at the times would be out of work.
American voters want the millions of immigrant gang member rapists deported. When they don’t see these imaginary folks deported but do see their neighbor or the guy they mows their lawn deported instead they’re angry. Which is both obvious, and somehow impossible for (most) pundits to grasp
And by “great” you mean “terrible and disappointing,” right?
i would argue there is an extremely strong relationship between the two, and they are inversely proportional
One has to think that simple AI research could calculate the accuracy rate of Beltway pundits, seems like a useful gauge
Weird cuz my news says 2/3 of all USA support deporting people with no limits Hate that don’t know what is tell truth or not
"The BLM protests cost Biden the election. I am very smart."
We saw the footage of authorities firing on protestors who were just standing sound , we saw them vandalizing their own cars. So yeah.
My profound worry is the polls can go to zero; with Pettyman Smallcock in complete control of the government, it may no longer matter.
It always matters
Dictatorships are terribly afraid of public opinion. Even Nazi Germany had something called "dispatches from the Reich" for internal circulation to try and gauge public opinion...
I have no way to quantify this, but protests move people I think optics/strategy are important but there is a demographic that will be moved just by seeing protests, they either think “gosh I wish they wouldn’t be so violent but maybe they have a point” like this moved my grandmother in 2020!
she went from a life-long Republican to kind of apolitical never trump person because of the protests even tho she didn’t hold the protesters in high regard either Many people see protests as signaling something is wrong and impacts their opinion even if they don’t *like* the protestors themselves
like to an extent year I think optics/strategy matter, specially if a protest is specifically appealing to a a demographic, but the very act of mass protests has an impact on people, especially non-politically informed people, it makes the issue real even if they “have thoughts on violent protests »
It's about time!
If the Democrats regain the White House in 2028 and then lose it again in 2032, that non-trivial portion of pundits will assert (as given fact) that the 2032 loss was the fault of today's protesters.
Watching public polling change before their eyes with the shock and wonderment of a baby experiencing peekaboo.
Political commentator job postings be like "must not have reached the object permanence stage of infant development"
It’s either good for republicans or bad for Democrats
So... basically be representative of the American public?
Yep.
I still have my doubts the GOP will pay any electoral price for any of this. I dunno.
Only if the 36% who were DIDN'T VOTErs decide things are bad enough to vote again.
i’m happy to admit that i was thinking about this all incorrectly too. finally some hope that public mobilization against autocracy can be effective!
Public opinion is unimportant when you're a fascist.
a perfect example of why reading your horoscope, visiting a seer, etc, is meaningless. We say we want to know the future yet when the signs are right in front of us telling us what is going to happen, we pay no attention. We are the fools on a hill.
I hate this crap. It's all a game to these people. AND THE POLLS DON'T MEAN SHIT AT THIS STAGE. The people in charge are going to continue to do what they have been doing. They don't care what people think, and they have made that painfully obvious.
Give up then. The rest of us won't.
You completely misunderstood me. I hate these so-called pundits who turn all this into some sort of a game.
Guy was elected off the back of being perceived as good on the economy and immigration. People are gullible, in general, but Americans.... my god.
Come on PEOPLE! Who is making money from ICE detentions? This is where you should focus your attention (and other peoples attention). If it is unprofitable, then it will decrease. (Yes, that is sad to say, but it is the truth right now)
Negative is a rating!?!? I quite honestly didn't know this was possible!
MAJ prob with all this ‘Look at the NUMBERS!’, Hyperventilating? When those numbers don’t FAVOR him? Dumald has proven remarkably adept at IGNORING them/Pretending THEY DON’T MATTER/EXIST.* *CONFESSION: Personally? I haven’t put much meaningful significance/faith in Polling for YEARS.
You can tell who the smartest, savviest political thinkers are because they realize you gotta be really, REALLY cautious about how you attack a guy whose approval is 15 points underwater on an issue where everything he does is wildly unpopular.
And whose shelf life is less certain than some things currently in my fridge.
“JD” is here in LA now with what looks like the second invasion of Desert Storm: helicopters, rows of military tan fighting vehicles, ambulances, a phalanx of motorcycle cops, all for a 15 min. Pep talk to marines then off to a fundraiser in Bev.Hills.
But the consultants assured us the disapproving signs would go viral!
But Drumpf’s supporters still haven’t abandoned him and neither have the Rs in CONgress!!
RW Pols & Media spread the lie: OPEN BORDERS!! Pollsters: Majority opposes OPEN BORDERS!! Pundit Class: OMG OPEN BORDERS!! Trump was right.
as i will never stop pointing out, the "professional political commentary class" is mostly employed by the billionaire investor class, to work for their "respectable" news outlets, and this influence cannot be separated from the ideas these people put out
The political commentary class doesn't seem to know why people who hate Trump hate him.
Enten had decent commentary back in his 538 days. But he's been pretty disappointing since going to CNN.
Horse race reporting.
Dems need to make noise to the point the media can't ignore them, but in a way that gets the message across to that 10% of people who are still sort of on team Trump but aren't all in. It might get you arrested, it might get you shot, but you gotta do it. If you can't, step aside.
Most Democratic office-holders should be playing to the centrists, the "fiscal conservatives" who don't really pay attention to civil rights because it's an abstract concept to them. Make them see it, make them appreciate how fucked up it is, and make them understand how it affects their own lives.
Yet the democrats are so spineless they are still not sure how to handle it. Troops in the streets? People being kidnapped by masked agents? State reps murdered by MAGA fascists? Better not stir the pot too much! Some white guy in Wisconsin might not like it!
Dems are always trying to win the votes of conservatives who will never vote for them, it would be funny if it wasn’t so frustrating
Seriously, when the only effective opposition to the villain is the villain's own stupidity and impatience...
Especially (b). Talk about needing to get out more ...
Don't forget that he took his win, which was by about 1.5%, i believe, as a mandate which, in hindsight by everyone but Trump, it was obvious that it was not.
He is a moron
The only surprising thing about this to me is that CNN seems to be reporting on it accurately
Doubtful they care about losing an issue 45-55, every position they take is about that bad or even more lopsided. They are playing to win and don't care about political backlash, because they know with the two party system, they'll be back in power in 4 years anyway
But he still has the majority of the Republican who support his policies and his actions regarding immigration. He doesn’t care about polls until MAGA Republicans stop supporting him
So far, the only battle that Trump has won, has been subjugating the American oligarchy.
honest question, can you clarify what you mean in b) ? You're talking about the accuracy of polling?
Well, if anyone is capable of taking his supposed “best issue”, royally fucking up and turning the Court of Public Opinion against him, it’s President Asshole.
corporate media “pundits” should all be deplatformed
CNN is a particular kind of demonic entity
I think what you’re tying to say is, no shit!
If the Democratic Party was smart, and not completely Shor-pilled, they would have seen that immigration was Trump's strongest issue and the only thing keeping his candidacy and then presidency afloat, and then attacked him on it from every angle.
It's only really his strongest issue because Dems never really took a hard stance on immigration. They always kind of deflected and let Trump run with it.
Biden and Obama deported more people than Trump did. There was plenty of room if they wanted to go that route.
A lot want to relitigate 68
Props to Gov Newsom who was out there communicating and pushing back on the right’s talking points
For decades we've decried "epistemic closure" in the right-wing and neglected it in Democratic party leaders and consultants. To our (continued) peril.
