anyway this is just an idle theory i have but i think reagan's 1984 landslide and Bush's 1988 repeat convinced a lot of conservatives of the time that they had won politics and that they were the natural governing party of the united states, and those who remain have not let go of the fantasy
I mean they basically and immediately treated Clinton like he was illegitimate.
As Chris Rock himself said, "They treated him like a Black president."
I grew up in that world and they felt so cheated in 1992 by Perot's candidacy, which they saw as robbing them of an otherwise deserved victory (Clinton got >50% of the vote in only D.C. and Arkansas, and won some states with <40% of the vote).
Not a coincidence that the current gerontocracy leading the Democrats came of age during the Reagan-Bush era and have undiagnosed or untreated political PTSD. They're like beaten dogs.
Or you think that because you want to think that.
Convinced much of the media as well -- the NY Times bought in, and saw Clinton as a trashy interloper...
Sometimes I suspect that more than a few of the older Dem pols were convinced of the same thing.
Gen X ruining it for everybody yet again
Kinda explains why they hated Clinton so much. He’s the rightmost Democrat since WW2 at least, and the GOP absolutely loathed him and Hillary. That’s from wounded pride more than any specific policy of the Clinton administration
Basically, I agree. The concept is that Dems can only sway people by trickery, and Republicans are the rightful and pure stewards of the nation. Based entirely on vibes. And they are morally justified, because it's for the greater good. No deed is wrong if it's in service, etc. It's chilling.
2004 cemented this delusion
And a LOT of Dems of that same vintage feel that, at the very least, Dems must follow the Reagan model to succeed even today. Essentially, they, too, feel conservatives won politics (94 only confirmed this) and deserve to rule forever and always.
Ostensibly smart people somehow can’t (refuse, really, because it imputes responsibly) connect the dots between their “respectable” conservative jurists of the 70s/80s and the current domination by Trumpists and FedSoc reactionaries
Many of whom clerked for those "respectable conservative jurists".
I've had similar theories over the years. When the Republicans were claiming Obama wasn't a legitimate president and did everything they did to block his agenda, I knew racism was part of the reason, but I told people the other reason was the GOP saw the White House as their birthright since 1980.
quite so. but it wasn't just a wind at their backs, but a shiny golden goal buoyed by the lewis powell roadmap. after the civil and voting rights bills, Rs knew they'd never win another election w/o propaganda &/or cheating. all that created considerable momentum, as well as savage self-delusion.
I knew this was about Bork without even seeing the rest of the thread.
Reinforced with the "silent majority" propaganda starting in Nixon's time.
I’m not American, but I am just old enough to remember the unholy shame and scandal about Watergate. What really stopped me in my tracks, was that when the whole Iran-Contra mess came out, it was pretty much consequence-free for the perpetrators.
Convinced a lot of Democratic politicians and consultants too
Reagan broke the nation's brain on this subject. Bush/Dukakis was closely fought because neither candidate was very popular, but I guess when Bush won the narrative was solidified that Republicans should have the presidency by default, even though it's gone 50/50 ever since.
Entirely possible, but I think it might be more accurate to say that conservatives have always felt they were the natural governing party at all times. After all, they are the party that most believes in natural hierarchy and most celebrates unequal distribution of power.
Similar dynamic coming from the Cuomos, Schumers, and Gillibrands IMO. Obviously it's not as horrible but it's worse than what we need
I'd say that Clinton's triangulation and the repudiation of Bush II were the other side of that coin: conservatives were pissed that Democrats were stealing their donors, and really mad that after having it all their own way after 9/11 they were kicked to the curb for sheer incompetence.
The reason they went full Nazi was a) a way to distinguish themselves from third-way Democrats and b) resentment about how they hd everything their own way, failing hard and getting turfed as a result.
I agree with the comments below that its not a theory but a fact that Reagan/Bush landslides: 1. convinced conservatives that Rs are the natural governing party. 2. convinced D electeds and so-called thought leaders of the same thing. It's 40+ years and US political system has not recovered
It also explains why they hated Clinton so much even though he arguably did more for the right than the left.
Balanced the budget, cut welfare, deregulated banking. BUT was pro-choice and put RBG on SCOTUS. The economy was humming and he felt like a liberal to them even as he governed from the center. They hated him for all of that.
It's important to remember the tax code under Clinton. Taxes used to be simpler for most people, and there were punitive taxes on businesses and business owners who did not put money back into employee pockets and R&D. GWB blew that up. The GWB tax cuts, really a tax realignment, got us here.
Slashing taxes and starting billion dollar wars is a great way to wreck the balanced budget you inherited.
It was more than that. He completely realigned the code. He line item removed tax penalties for companies not investing in R&D, reordered inheritance taxes to favor the ultrawealthy, made exemptions and filing tougher and more opaque for average people.
Wow didn't know those details. Awful. I was struck by how quickly they gutted public filing recently, which would benefit lower income workers so much. It's ludicrous how they are able to get away with their populist poses while legislating for the super wealthy.
Unfortunately a very specific arm of Democrats came to see the same thing about Clinton specifically (Gore should coulda been the heir). All of this nostalgia has left the door wide open and all of these people, right or left, handwringing with little to show in results
And it really became true when they stole the 2000 election.
They also believe they are the Christian Party and the true patriots. Delusional.
see also bill clinton only winning pluralities in 3-way contests as an unfair interruption
I feel that the 1994 election had much the same effect, as has the 2024 election Of course, their shining Thousand Year Reich didn't last very long after 1995
💯
Hmmm… it’s the end of the Cold War and the Gulf War that tips it? Bush’s stratospheric numbers convinced many not only that they must win but that they deserved to win.
Back in 2000 Karl “Turdblossom” Rove was blathering to anyone and everyone about creating a “permanent Republican majority.” Many of them really do believe that is their rightful (and righteous) destiny.
Really felt like Rove was right after the 2004 election. Then the economy imploded and made President Barack Obama possible. Every permanent majority can be upended by the economy. See also 1928 and 1932.
Bush was in the dumpster well before the crash. The 2006 midterm wave election was a bloodbath for Republicans.
Also fears about Bush’s privatization plan on social security.
Oh for sure and Iraq backlash kicked in then. But economy was already sputtering and was a big factor too.
I dunno man, 2007 was the hottest economy I've ever seen in my life before the big crash came. All sugar high based on the banks writing bad paper for sure but there was lots of money flowing and tons of work.
That sounds right. I was still in college. My red southern district ousted a long term Republican for a Dem and the ads were constantly hitting the Republican over gas prices and the like.
Ironically unless there's some exogenous supply shock going on* high gas prices mean the economy is booming. *which maybe a little bit, Iraq war and all, but I don't recall it as being a supply problem in 2006.
This was typical of a lot of Dem messaging that year. Hit big energy, big insurance, trade etc. It was pretty effective, just from voters' feeling that things weren't going well and needed to change. Many GOP candidates, of course, have run that same horse since. www.youtube.com/watch?v=G19e...
And my idle theory on the flip side is that a lot of the current Democratic leadership came up during this period when Dems were getting absolutely crushed at the national level, and so they operate as though it’s always 1972/1984/1988.
2016 and 2024 (especially) brought them right back to that headspace too
Convinced a lot of Democratic leaders and especially a lot of political journalists and pundits too
Yeah sadly these were the formative years for the fucking 80 year olds running the party
This. So many older Democrats concede this as though it's a fact rather than a fight
By a lot you mean 99.99999% of political journalists, who to this day do not think of Democrats as fully human let alone equal citizens.
Geriatric Democratic leadership's seeming death pact with Clintonian triangulation and not actually standing for anything makes more sense when you realize they're still terrified of the ghost of Ronald Reagan
And still believe that public opinion is fossilized in the early 1980s.
I think they're also terrified of Trump's armed mob. J6 hit different than anyone is saying.
How many election cycles will we cower in fear?
As I said on the show today, it's past time for the gerontocracy to end. I sure don't want to be a part of it.
Sighing as I currently sit in Mitch McConnell's Kentucky, which votes to stay ignorant and struggling. Mitch made out like a bandit, increasing his wealth over $60m from 2018 to 2022. All this after his wife's (Elaine Chao's) father died, leaving her the proceeds from his shipping business.
*The Bob Cesca Show.
Bill Clinton certainly thought so.
The thing is, he won elections.
And then reinforced for another generation after 9/11 when everyone who opposed Bush was with the terrorists
The 2006 midterms were a seminal movement in Democratic politics, in a good way. You can trace back nearly every positive achievement the party has accomplished in the last 20 years to the politics that came out of that rebellion against capitulation to the Bush regime.
And for me, is why Bill Clinton and his team are still held as the leading voices in Democratic politics because they upset this order in 92.
Yes. I was 24 that year and hadn't seen a D president since I was 12. It's hard to explain how liberating it felt when Clinton won.
I get it. But also, I feel like this is why the James Carvilles of the world still have a lot of pull. Because they pulled off a truly surprising and big win. But important to remember that was 33 years ago! It's the 1992 equivalent of a strategy from the late 1950s.
Oh, so wasn’t supporting the strategy by any means
Totally. I remember a pro-choice activist in 1990 saying she felt like the country had just decided that the presidency was Republican and the senate was democrat. This is part of why they hated Clinton so much and would do anything to take him down.
I was in high school and college during the Reagan/Bush years, and honestly I still have a hard time not letting those three straight landslides color the way I think about politics.
This convincing was not hard once Democrat leaders realized how vastly profitable it was to play the valiant hero who always falls *just* short of stopping those evil Republicans - but a little more money will get it done next time! We promise
the gerontocracy's permanent defensive crouch has a lot to do with when they came of age politically and remains one of the biggest reasons we should move past them
My god I just looked at Tom Nichols account and when he's not whingeing about Bork he's insisting that the original Road House and Face Off are the two worst movies ever made. What is WRONG with that man??
easy: he’s a Republican. ergo, he’s a dipshit
Face Off is a legitimately terrible movie, but there are certainly worse.
I always refer to his hatred of Indian food as a huge red flag.
he sucks all the way and has always only ever sucked all the way but he’s a Never Trumper so nobody was willing to gatekeep his stupid ass
It's like hea never seen Plan Nine from Outer Space!
like a pack of grown dogs cowering at a rolled up newspaper
To quote a famous Jerseyite, "end up like a dog that's been beat too much, till you spend half your life just covering up...Born in the U.S.A."
During the October 1973 Saturday Night Massacre, Bork became acting U.S. Attorney General after his superiors in the U.S. Justice Department chose to resign rather than fire Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox, who was investigating the Watergate scandal.
Following an order from President Nixon, Bork fired Cox as his first assignment as Acting Attorney General.
Not particularly damning now but then it was a big deal
Still particularly damning tbh
As i was raised, yes, it would be considered corruption of the law. But bribes and extortion seem to be a pervasive feature of the art of the deal...
We still shouldn't normalize it.
How do we turn jump scares into accepted political activities?
I feel like another reason for the defensive crouch was the 2010 midterms Think about it- the minute an earnest liberal gets in charge and tries to expand healthcare, he gets absolutely demolished in the midterms. Just cooked. Wouldn’t that be prior confirming for the older politicians ?
We got our ass beat in 1984 and 1988. Then we win in 92 and lose the house and senate in a landslide. Then we win a huge majority in the senate and house in 2008! Wooho!! Oops house is gone. Really reaffirms priors
exactly, the way I say it is 'see Reagan won 2 elections so we have to campaign and govern as though he has won forever, no other choice'
not a lot of utility in the leftmost party’s leadership believing, in their bones, that America’s voters are fundamentally conservative
I think the 2010 election looms VERY large in a lot of people's memory (including mine) and I think it makes it difficult to correctly judge some things. I just remember that the last time we tried to do something we got bit hard for it.
Or Biden making sure that we didn't pay for the covid crash with extended recession and years of mass unemployment, and being willing to tolerate a bit of inflation, rather than fucking over 5-10% of the population to keep prices down. Won't make that mistake again!
Yeah, i think one of the biggest political lessons of 2024 is that inflation is an.absolutely unforgiveable sin in the public's mind, regardless of the context of the inflation
And it's not good! It's been argued fairly convincingly IMO that an inflation-averse monetary policy that's willing to tolerate unemployment much more than inflation is one of the prime drivers of wage stagnation and expanding inequality.
Add it to the pile of self destructive/self defeating beliefs and behaviors i guess, sigh
And we’re about to see a whole lot of inflation and unemployment by the looks of it, though I hope I’m wrong.
Yep – I've been saying this for years. And it's infuriating, because the R wins of the '80s had way more to do with the exogenous factors of the '70s than it did anything inherent to our body politic. Reason A #1 why we need everyone who entered Dem politics before 2016 to go the F away.
I think it was actually @jamellebouie.net who made this point originally, but it's not the age of the Democrat, but when they got into politics that creates the attitude (compare Warren, for example).
Good point
100%
Pretty sure it was the defining belief of the DLC
Correct!
Yeah this was why they all thought it was brilliant strategy to take up the Republican outsourcing agreement (NAFTA) and pass it over and against a majority of Dems in both House & Senate with Republican help and couldn't understand why D's immediately afterwards lost Congress from 1994 to 2006.
And the 90s reinforced it because Clinton was able to win 2 elections by ruling and running as a Republican, completely ignoring that he never won a majority. His reign also lost the party lots of seats throughout the country, which actually reinforced this notion because they lost to actual GOPers
Have you looked at the popular vote margins in the elections preceding Clinton's first win? They are informative and not in the way you seem to imagine
However much true it is, the idea that what’s ultimately a racism dial has to be turned just enough by Democrats in order to win feels fundamentally bad.
I'm strongly of the opinion that Bush Jr's two wins (one stolen) did this for the next generation of conservatives. Everything since then has either been a reification or at best an insult.
Note that Nordlinger didn’t address why Bork was opposed. Of course, that might lead to honest discourse. Not their interest.
I have never once seen or heard a Bork apologist address the actual issues raised with Bork, and instead they just treat it as reflexively batting aside a conservative stalwart when Scalia was confirmed like maybe a year or two before.
Conservatives don't like being told "No"
Also, Bork's defeat was in a BIPARTISAN vote! Six (!!!) Republican senators voted against him! And he didn't even make it out of committee (the vote was 9-5 against), but Bork himself insisted that the full Senate vote. I guess he had a humiliation fetish.
That and the whole "no one ever really goes to jail for their political crimes" has really bit us on the ass.
growing up in Illinois really set me up for disappointment with the rest of American politics
Illinois is far better at sending their corrupt politicians to prison than the federal government!
"GASP, who are you?" "I am the ghost of Dan Rostenkowski!" "What do you want?" "To remind you, that although stamps are money, you're really not supposed to abuse access to an unlimited supply of them."
It seemed to have convinced Mr Triangulation Bill Clinton too.
Pretty sure that viewpoint was baked into the Republican Party vis-a-vi the Democrats since the Civil War. It’s just aged badly what with all that mid 20th century Southern Strategy stuff
It especially forged the certainty that when properly wielded, the religious right is politically unstoppable
You say many smart and insightful things, but this may be the best one yet.
100%
we must crush the republican fascists
🎯🎯🎯
goes hand in hand with the boomer generation ascending to power and never really letting go. as others have said below, it convinced a generation of *dems* of this, too
yes, this was the origin of Clinton derangement syndrome, and it has gotten increasingly deranged since. Even into Obama's term republicans kept talking about the 90s as the "reagan era"
Also explains why Gen-X, particularly Gen-X men are so often leaning conservative now. They were children at the time, some part of their impressionable brains got the message that this is the natural order, and they haven't unlearned it as adults.
Conservatives the world over think they're the natural governing party of their country. It's part of their schtick. Labour/leftists parties see themselves as being immeshed in a struggle/fight for power, conservatives see themselves as the natural/normalised/inevitable rulers
This fantasy is rooted in the "daddy complex" of conservatives. They fawn over the old white dude because... he MUST know what he is talking about.
And this shite makes me glad that I am no longer on twitter.
I think it's also related to the conservative rhetorical strategy of speaking entirely in symbols until the underlying referents are obliterated. That's why Trump's tweets look like nonsense: they're full of anchorless hyperlinks
I don't think its a theory. If you read articles written around Clinton's win you'll see tons of comment about how he stole their future.
I think this idea is also deeply embedded into every Dem politician who cut their teeth during this time frame. Schumer for instance. And the corollary "Dem = loser" mindset.
Unfortunately for the people, many elite Democrats have enabled Rs in that fantasy by seeming to believe it themselves.
I remember a lot of "The permanent Republican majority" talk after the '94 midterms as well.
It's not conservatives with that mindset that are the problem. It's the amount of folks who've worked in the media for the past 40 years who have adopted that mindset that've created this situation. News adopting that frame and turning everything else into "he said she said" at best made this bed
I've said for years now the problem among Democratic Party elite is it's always the day after the election in '84. *That* is their formative political memory and it colors everything they do and believe. They act like losers because they wake up every day having just lost 49 states.
The TV news media treats them this way no matter which party is in the majority.
won the Cold War, i'd say, and now they have to be loyal to good daddy so the value of their houses across the river just keep going up
(not actually crediting reagan and bush with that, tbc)
Bork was Bove with some polish and hair.
I mean your take is probably better than mine but I don't think the Republicans really needed any convincing that they were the natural governing party.
But…they’re spectacularly bad a governing.
Therein also lies the conundrum that is the mistaken perception that conservatism is the vanguard while progressivism is actually reactionary.
There is a longstanding argument in political historiography that Republicans started believing that they were the natural governing partyafter they won the Civil War and never let go of that notion.
Until FDR, the only Democrat with two conservative terms was Wilson, and the Dems only won four elections between 1860 and 1932, so it wouldn't be unreasonable for them to believe that. Especially when some blame Taft for not standing aside in 1912 for Wilson's win.
Which is why they lost their minds over Clinton and kept pursuing all kinds of nonsense to bring him down. People were tired of the Reagan revolution and Bush seemed out of touch with every day pocketbook issues. But instead Republicans ginned up the conspiracy machine and here we are.
But they can't govern.
