*(Based on polling, just saw some returns came in but I know nothing about them)
Replies
Looks like the polls pretty seriously overestimated Cuomo, he’s gonna lose the first round. Betting markets have Mamdani at 98%+
jun 25, 2025, 1:56 am • 1 0 • view
You're way behind on the evidence then. Returns aren't matching the polls at all.
jun 25, 2025, 1:52 am • 10 0 • view
Which is maybe not surprising. The 2021 primary was notably high turnout and was still only 26.5% (my quick math says this one is only hitting 22%) There's just so much room for turnout effects that it's probably real hard to model the electorate with any accuracy.
jun 25, 2025, 1:59 am • 9 0 • view
fwiw the early returns are really good (he seems likely to win the first rank vote), and betting markets have snapped to 99% chance he wins
jun 25, 2025, 1:54 am • 2 0 • view
I was boarding a plane when all of this happened, so
jun 25, 2025, 1:57 am • 3 0 • view
You missed the good times
jun 25, 2025, 1:57 am • 6 0 • view
I did. About to miss all the gloating too!
jun 25, 2025, 2:00 am • 5 0 • view
Safe travels
jun 25, 2025, 2:01 am • 2 0 • view
Travel easy in the knowledge that Andrew Cuomo is having a terrible night.
jun 25, 2025, 2:17 am • 1 0 • view
It's certainly *possible* Mamdani loses on preferences, but given that Ladner* cross-endorsed with him... *Who's third with 11% or so.
jun 25, 2025, 2:01 am • 0 0 • view
Um, the returns have been *very good* for Zoran Mamdani thus far- he's leading the initial count by over 8 points with the vast majority of the vote in.
jun 25, 2025, 1:58 am • 0 1 • view