I think that's probably right. There are absolutely MAGA chuds in the northeast who would be copperheads but I suspect most would either shut the fuck up once bloodshed started or would be {REDACTED} by their neighbors.

How does this change when you factor in control of water/electric infrastructure and agriculture?

It mostly means that the fighting would be incredibly desperate and very, very bloody.

So…war

More like the Penninsular War than Ulm campaign but war

We just don't have any analogy for what a civil war within the US would look like. We have so much infrastructure now that we are really not able to handle life without. War in the US would look like the Taping Rebellion but 10x worse, as bad as WW2

Tbh it also depends a lot on where it starts and what the antebellum political divide is at kickoff

A disruption to the US food system also causes global famine

Yep which probably means one or more great powers intervening which probably makes everything even uglier

And possibly spillover into Canada if Alberta fafos

Something that seriously disrupts internal transportation or external shipping has much bigger ripple effects than eg something that is comparatively regionalized or restricted to economally marginal areas

Also I think STL could be a monkey wrench-red state but on the border with a blue state (albeit downstate IL) and with cross-border transiy