My rule of thumb for trump-putin conference analysis is if it doesn't mention how unusual it is for the meeting to not be held in a third-party country like, say, UAE, and specifically on why *putin* rather than just trump would agree to that, then the analysis is probably not going to be worth much
The problem here is that Trump sees having the meeting in the USofA as an advantage while Putin thinks Alaska still belongs to Russia so he sees the location as a win. My question would be: Are they there to discuss whether Putin takes Alaska or parts of Ukraine?
Wonder if Putin's will be the only translator ? Again.
🎯🎯🎯
Sarah Palin volunteered to host
Putin should send Lavrov in his stead at the last moment, who can then spend the entire pre-summit press gaggle making progressively bolder Epstein jokes.
Like if your frame of reference for it starts and ends through the prism of US domestic politics, without even spotting the glaring irregularity, *why* it's an irregularity, or why MFA/km would spot it and leave that unaddressed, you're not getting analysis, it's just arble garble fan fiction babble
My only thought was "Does Trump somehow think Alaska is courteously meeting him halfway?" which dribbled out into nothing because yeah, I don't know anything
Yes, all of this, but perhaps also the fact that the United States is not a member of the ICC and doesn’t recognize its jurisdiction when convenient.
As the stakes of American politics get bigger and bigger it really does feel like our collective awareness is diminishing that other countries have politics too.
Obviously there's a lot of sheer laziness in there too.
The tldr is the Alaska meeting is, to R, an sufficiently guaranteed material concession large enough to outmatch the cost of the asymmetry; the cost to russia is ~ a bit of flattery, and in return both undermines UA sovereign legitimacy, and locks-in opportunities to weaken US support to UA
If you don't spot the glaring irregularities you're only seeing part of the picture, which is *why* MFA/Kremlin are happy to overlook the irregularity and not insist on third party mediation. It's not a thing R didn't notice, it's a thing they are purposely eliding, because the payoff is worth it
R is just banking free concessions from the US, and the US foreign policy system right now is so hollowed out that it is selling itself, never mind UA, out for the sake of some photo opportunities and simple flattery
Flatery. Trump loves that! Gold trophy for Crimea? Nobel prize for Donetsk? Best PoTUS EVER!
domestically, Putin may also be able to sell this as "Alaska is Russian land anyway, only rented to the USA", as I've learned that is a belief that many Russian people hold.
Bit of an open question whether there will be domestic political consequences for getting absolutely played on the world stage.
I think democrats need to frame Ukraine as a nuclear proliferation issue Ukraine gave up nukes for protection If we can’t protect them, then there’s no reason for other countries to not have or keep their nukes
Since Obama gave up Crimea, that’s a tough sell.
Nope It being not even close to that simple is almost besides the point
When the people you need to change their votes are that simple? You sweet summer child!
No Obama tried appeasement with Putin and it failed, and it was also the right thing sd the time. Trump is trying appeasement now and it will fail too Also youre making the same mistake democrat leaders always make, which is assuming voters even know or care about history or consistency
LOL
Or Trump is in trouble and his handler wants to meet with him so discuss how to proceed
really really wants that Nobel.
I am tired of earth. These people. I am tired of getting caught in the tangle of their lives.
I think one aspect of the meeting is that Putin will give Trump (on the qt) instructions of what to do in his second term. I mean that. If there isn't a one-on-one with only RUS interpreter in the room, I'll be very surprised.
Maybe Putin promised he'd bring another soccer ball. And one for Pete Hegseth and one for Tulsi, too. www.cnn.com/2018/07/25/p...
Should Alaskans be worried?
Yes. bsky.app/profile/kdby...
Ok so what is a good analysis of why its happening this way?
Always good to invite a wanted war criminal into the country
I mean, we've had a lot of them in the Oval Office
That did strike me as odd. And he’s not coming here in prostration, but Trump believes it’s a strong signal of who’s dominant. I’m not so sure. I think Putin sees a gain, maybe underhanded in an interpersonal way.
Top of my mind is he has made Trump believe something is different now And he can befool Trump by letting him publicly say that for a few days and then pout because Lucy yanked the football again. But this time he’ll do it on US soil to add insult to injury.
Russia, a second rate power, wearing the pants in its relationship with Trump (even if he doesn’t know it) is already publicly humiliating. But this time they can send that signal from inside the house
“We’re going to have a meeting with Russia, start off with RU, and we’ll announce a location. I think the location WILL BE A VERY POPULAR ONE, for a lot of reasons, but we’ll be announcing that a little bit later.” Always for the entertainment value. That said, I'm glad you're making that point.
They would normally meet up for coffee or lunch, but Trump went ahead and invited Putin back to his place. So to speak. Just thought that and can't unthink it.
Plus Alaska with the history between the two nations … very weird setting. Someone mentioned it was a direct way to get to the U.S. without going against ICC rulings, but I don’t think those really matter in realpolitik.
If I recall the actual number of Russians in Alaska when they claimed it as a colony/ territory was low hundreds
I’m just hoping Palin shows up.
Short trip for Putin. Long trip for Trump.
Let's start with the fact that the ICC warrant for Putin is still out there. Now sprinkle in the last visit from sitting Russian/Soviet president. You it off with a few select pages from the Epstein files
if Putin thinks Alaska is the one place in the world where his personal safety can be assured during his travels, he could be right
I mean he 100% wanted to host him at Mar-a-Lago or the White House and got talked down, right?
I’m assuming there will be no complications because he’s giving it back before the meeting
That was the first thing I thought of, why Alaska instead of neutral or third-country territory? It certainly is VERY unusual. But then, I’m not a pundit or an analyst.
Putin is handing over his copy of the Epstein file in exchange for Trump handing over Eastern Ukraine.
He's going to give Alaska back
Putin should be detained as a war criminal and remanded to the custody of the ICC on US soil. I might respect Trump just a little if he did that. Or just shoot his plane down upon entering US airspace. That works too.
The US is not party to the ICC. That's why, for example, Netanyahu is not currently cooling his heels in The Hague.
I know that. We should do it anyway. Canada has agency here too.
"We"? Do you have a m̶o̶u̶s̶e̶ flight of F-16s in your pocket?
