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WE TRIED TO WARN YOU @cogenteur.bsky.social

Monthly "jobs created" is a wobbly signal. Estimate total "jobs" by compiling error-laden mis-timed survey data, then seasonally adjust. Subtract last month's rough estimate from this month's, for a delta ~1/1,000th of total jobs. Longer-term measures are a bit more robust.

aug 1, 2025, 5:37 pm • 0 0

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WE TRIED TO WARN YOU @cogenteur.bsky.social

Aaannnddd ... there goes the neighborhood of estimation! www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...

aug 1, 2025, 7:01 pm • 0 0 • view