oh that's a good observation. i think you could measure this to figure out when he's lying

A big clue is how much of the early text is loaded with nonspecific cliches about generic pandemonium and death threats, reasonable controlled discussion as the alternative and so on. It's junk food to set your mood correct for the last paras about the case at hand

He was a yapper even when I liked him the one time tbf but the placement is indicative

He's always like this, I don't think it says anything about whether he's lying. He has a knack for turning a thought that could be expressed in three 280-character tweets into a blog post of 5,000 words.

i do think he waxes way, way more poetic when he is refusing to state the point he is making directly

He does, but he also never makes a direct point, even when he says something random about statistics.

the questionable shit is near the end of the second 5,000 words and the closest he gets to a smoking gun is in the comments some of which he hastily deletes two weeks later lol