depends on product category and retailer because stockpiling varied. but we will absolutely see visible shortages within two months.
Replies
Layoffs and not hiring is already happening.
may 2, 2025, 4:05 pm • 4 0 • view
IIRC from my time in grocery retail, holiday shippers and pre-seasons start arriving in May/June too. I’m excited to see how the American people react to having to put the Christ back in Christmas this year because there will be fuck-all else under the tree.
may 2, 2025, 8:19 pm • 1 1 • view
I would note that in TEU (shipping container) terms, freight bound for the US from China has slowed sharply but is NOT at extreme lows yet.
may 2, 2025, 3:53 pm • 143 16 • view
Thanks for sharing that chart! Is there a way I can look that up myself to keep an eye on it? I tried searching Bloomberg, but I couldn't find it.
may 2, 2025, 5:02 pm • 2 0 • view
TRVSDLVW Index on Bloomberg.
may 4, 2025, 5:59 am • 4 0 • view
There might be something similar here www.bts.gov/ports
may 4, 2025, 5:41 am • 2 0 • view
That’s a relief
may 2, 2025, 4:57 pm • 1 0 • view
Any sign of any of that traffic being replaced by traffic from other countries like Vietnam?
may 2, 2025, 3:57 pm • 3 0 • view
So I am being cautious about over-reading the near-term ports data out to goods availability, because 1) there's still flow, it's just smaller 2) it's going to take a while for all this to play out
may 2, 2025, 3:54 pm • 104 2 • view
Those incoming containers are going to move their cargo out at 145% tariffs? A serious question, what’s going to happen with all this pile of stuff?
may 2, 2025, 4:21 pm • 5 0 • view
The chart shows 15-day rolling averages, so the current situation could be worse than what the chart shows.
may 2, 2025, 5:10 pm • 15 0 • view
Yes, but the whole 15d period is after the tariffs took effect. Also, it's bounced in the last couple of readings.
may 2, 2025, 5:11 pm • 14 0 • view
Couldn’t it also be slowing because of the stockpiling that took place?
may 2, 2025, 5:16 pm • 8 0 • view
yes, definitely part of it, question is how much.
may 2, 2025, 5:17 pm • 19 0 • view
This is some weapons grade counter-narrative- maybe it’s a good thing. People need to stop relying on the economy to tank trumps approval and double down attacking him other ways as well.
may 2, 2025, 5:05 pm • 1 0 • view
it's a correct assumption that most people are not strongly motivated by much besides their pocket-book, despite appearances and polls otherwise.
may 4, 2025, 6:37 am • 2 0 • view
... yet.
may 2, 2025, 3:56 pm • 1 0 • view
(Idk how to interpret these charts) Is it right to read comparable dips in the recent past as being demand-driven, where this current one is tariff induced, so there could be a bigger gap between what’s wanted and what’s available, even though imports are similar in absolute terms?
may 2, 2025, 3:59 pm • 2 0 • view
*demand-driven at normal market prices, I guess
may 2, 2025, 4:00 pm • 2 0 • view
Anecdotal, by my sibling has a management job in logistics, and they were telling me many of the big shippers (like Maersk) are doing significant layoffs while also raising their rates, presumably to cope with decreased volume.
may 2, 2025, 4:26 pm • 9 2 • view
This is basically what I’ve found from my reporting as well
may 2, 2025, 3:53 pm • 15 0 • view
There were a bunch of people on the Bozeman reddit yesterday being all excited about our renovated mall. "It's going to have a Sephora!" Buzzkill that I am, I was like, "Yeah, an empty Sephora."
may 2, 2025, 3:58 pm • 12 1 • view
should we laugh or cry
may 2, 2025, 4:00 pm • 1 0 • view
Apologies for plugging my own work, but I wrote this earlier in the week to try and explain the situation in as approachable a way as I could manage (i.e. for people who don't look at spreadsheets for a living).
may 2, 2025, 4:00 pm • 66 14 • view
The railroads, BNSF and UP, won't fail, but I do wonder what Uncle Warren will say tomorrow morning live on CNBC, since BNSF is near to 20% of $BRKB
may 2, 2025, 5:35 pm • 1 0 • view
What about the trucking industry, which seems to be highly leveraged and operates on razor-thin margins? Can it remain afloat with a sharp reduction in business and the price war it will provoke in the industry? Could trucking go bankrupt, bringing the economy to a standstill?
may 2, 2025, 4:30 pm • 4 0 • view
I would assume we see layoffs in that sector at some point which then turns into defaults on the loans for the trucks. Not sure what percentage of truckers are all just 1099 contractors versus W2 employees, but pain is coming. These things domino quickly.
may 2, 2025, 4:46 pm • 5 2 • view
Even the trucking companies may be highly leveraged due to fleet expansion in recent years. www.thestreet.com/breaking-new...
may 2, 2025, 4:53 pm • 3 1 • view
nah this is very clear and useful, thank you
may 2, 2025, 4:14 pm • 9 0 • view
Appreciate the feedback! I'm working on a follow up about how we probably shouldn't expect prices to go back to where they were in March either. Short version, take prices back to a bit above where they were before, cite "inflation", move on and hope consumers just accept the net increase.
may 2, 2025, 5:01 pm • 5 1 • view
Here is that next piece. Unfortunately a real whoever wins we lose sort of situation.
may 4, 2025, 9:39 pm • 40 9 • view
📌
may 2, 2025, 5:22 pm • 1 0 • view
The timing is perfect. It’s all going to go to hell just before the parade he’s planning for himself.
may 2, 2025, 5:50 pm • 0 0 • view
Reading this. Thanks. Tiny copyediting miss in case you want to fix: (unless this is weird spreadsheet syntax:))
may 2, 2025, 4:18 pm • 1 0 • view
Thanks! Definitely missed that one.
may 2, 2025, 4:43 pm • 0 0 • view