This view is wrong IMO. Wages look absolutely normal and are comfortably positive in real terms. There's no sign of rapid declines in labor demand, and if anything higher frequency data argues the opposite. And the supply side hit to labor means you MUST account for it in any analysis.
The only hiring happening, as far as I can tell, is for the Border Patrol(ICE). Anybody who actually works, knows this. We are in a shit ton of trouble due to this idiot and billionaire greed in general.
I'm personally not so convinced. But I'd say you have quite a few aspects of this report on your side: avg weekly hours, part time for economic reasons both suggest all the weakness is on extensive rather than intensive margin.
Well put
for the record I do watch the trends but idgaf about the individual report
you’ll get random ass noise or static
cutcels coping and seething at holdchads
bsky.app/profile/jona...
Exactly. The labor supply is shrinking. Cutting rates will not reverse that. The price-levels are still rising. Cutting rates will not reduce that.
The wage part is odd: Challenger showed a big (29% m/m; 140% y/y) increase in layoffs. Grads aren't finding anything and the government is getting hollowed out. But wages are rising? Hmm. Feels like there's some weighting issues in tech/AI creating distortion.
OOooohhhh, ignore the Challenger numbers. It's not good data.
Interesting. Too raw?
Just not particularly rigorous. Can be lumpy because it doesn't take account of _when_ the layoffs will happen, just when they're announced. And the layoffs aren't specific to the US - they cover US companies announcing layoffs overseas.
Thanks, mate. That's useful to know! Explains in part why, even with the Thursday release, it tends to get buired.
Waller's whole argument was productivity growth is 2%, which is going to be wrong
Weekly median real wages are at the highest point aside from Covid (which is anomalous data) in US history.
Somebody’s going to be eating a shit sandwich in a few months