Something funky just hit USTs, yields spiked across the curve on no news. Big steepener, and most of the curve price action has already reversed...somebody might have gotten a shoulder tap.
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If they did this then they got some seriously terrible execution from whatever dealer got the mandate. (There's no evidence this is what happened, just saying)
aug 6, 2025, 3:50 pm • 36 0 • view
is there any evidence we did anything in april? i am memory holing something
aug 6, 2025, 4:01 pm • 3 0 • view
no some guy wrote a substack about Carney weaponizing it but the flows data...does not support that conclusion lol.
aug 6, 2025, 4:02 pm • 3 0 • view
Right i remembered the conspiracy, just double checking. Love the idea of Carney purposefully doing market manipulation while we still hold a fuckton of US debt
aug 6, 2025, 4:04 pm • 2 0 • view
Oh! I missed that spike--I was taking the garbage out. Was it in cash bonds too?
aug 6, 2025, 3:52 pm • 0 0 • view
everywhere
aug 6, 2025, 3:52 pm • 3 0 • view
That would be illegal, George.
aug 6, 2025, 3:43 pm • 5 0 • view
I think he may have meant someone who was leveraged and on the wrong side of a trade just had to cover. Maybe.
aug 6, 2025, 3:46 pm • 2 0 • view
Very strange. $40B US 10YR auction today. Maybe related, but doubtful.
aug 6, 2025, 4:13 pm • 1 0 • view
Maybe: weak $40bn 10yr auction with high primary dealer takedown + Thursday’s $100bn 4 week / the refunding package saturated the market. Then that dovish fomc headline in the morning followed by the tailed auction caused some weird hedging & rebalancing for etfs and delta hedged auction books.
aug 6, 2025, 8:35 pm • 0 0 • view
Yeah except the auction was over an hour later.
aug 6, 2025, 8:59 pm • 0 0 • view
Yeah, I guess the quarterly refunding release must’ve foretold some weak capacity. Not that the sizes changed, but it does show $35bn of new cash that needed to be absorbed right after the $58bn Tuesday/ $25b tomorrow. So was probably pre auction hedging and some very tepid bidding.
aug 6, 2025, 9:11 pm • 0 0 • view
There should be an anonymous place for "hey this trade just blew up" so we can all know about it
aug 6, 2025, 3:44 pm • 6 0 • view
TLT volume shot through the roof. 5mm+ shares (400mm or so) in about 15 minutes.
aug 6, 2025, 3:47 pm • 1 0 • view
Better make that about 10mm+ shares. Someone with a terminal can put a finer point on it.
aug 6, 2025, 3:53 pm • 0 0 • view
Maybe some tariffed country decided to pull a Canada in April and put some pressure on.
aug 6, 2025, 3:49 pm • 1 0 • view