I do actually have a fair bit of confidence in Waller's ability to conduct independent monetary policy, but if he does then they just use the Cook playbook on Jefferson, Barr, etc.
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Also I've made this point previously but when Powell exits the Chair position in May, he is NOT obligated to leave the Board. And I think the effort to remove Cook actually raises the odds he doesn't. But the optionality isn't reflected in the @robinwigglesworth.ft.com piece Caley was riffing on.
aug 26, 2025, 1:48 pm • 80 8 • view
good point that is another step along the way, although (as you said) if we get to that point it means the Cook firing went through and so the Fed Board is probably lost anyhow
aug 26, 2025, 1:54 pm • 3 0 • view
Yep, I increasingly think that this is what is going to happen — perhaps becoming a “shadow chair” with a twist. on.ft.com/4fHufYa
aug 26, 2025, 2:36 pm • 11 2 • view
this move is called "reverse shadow Fed chair" (please coin this term~ please coin this term~ )
aug 26, 2025, 2:41 pm • 0 0 • view
I assume you mean if Cook's fate is still undecided by May ? If Cook is gone then why even bother?
aug 26, 2025, 1:53 pm • 1 0 • view
Waller shouldn't be assumed to be a "do whatever" vote on the BoG. That would leave Bowman, Miran, Cook's replacement.
aug 26, 2025, 1:58 pm • 3 1 • view
I still can't fathom them abstaining from the appointment of Goolsbee.
aug 26, 2025, 1:49 pm • 0 0 • view
Yes. Fed independence is gone. Probably from the very first time Trump threatened to fire Powell.
aug 26, 2025, 1:48 pm • 0 0 • view
You are being *far* too definitive. Lots of contingency left, though of course it depends on SCOTUS and we shouldn't assume it is delivered.
aug 26, 2025, 1:49 pm • 3 0 • view
Whatever SCOTUS does, how confident do you feel that board members will be making their rate decisions for the *right* reasons? By the time Trump is done, I except there won't be a single American institution left beyond reproach.
aug 26, 2025, 1:55 pm • 0 0 • view
I remain confident in all the BoG members except Miran and Bowman at this point.
aug 26, 2025, 1:59 pm • 2 0 • view
(assuming Miran is confirmed, which, IDK)
aug 26, 2025, 1:59 pm • 2 0 • view