Post by George Pearkes / Redsky

George Pearkes • Feed

“Businesses went to the sidelines and are coming back but we should assume hiring in those months was a true representation of trend employment growth” is a terrible argument!

I have heard the argument that declining labor supply due to lower immigration means that low jobs numbers aren't as bad as they look and that the

aug 28, 2025, 11:13 pm • 26 2

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Back half of the speech has some very good discussion of how the jobs report is constructed and this ultimate conclusion is reasonable (though I disagree with it).

While I judge that the FOMC should have begun this process in July, based on the data in hand, I don't believe that a cut of larger than 25 basis points is needed in September. That view, of course, could change if the employment report for August, due out a week from tomorrow, points to a substantially weakening economy and inflation remains well contained. I think there is a growing consensus that monetary policy needs to be more accommodative, and even some recognition that it would have been wise to begin this process in July. I don't believe that policy has fallen substantially behind the curve, but one way to signal that I don't intend to allow that happen is to talk about where we go after September. Like other participants, I will be updating my economic projections just before the next FOMC meeting, including my assessment of the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at the end of this year and next. The totality of the data and the outlook will determine how quickly I believe we need to move policy to a neutral setting, but as I stand here today, I anticipate additional cuts over the next three to six months, and the pace of rate cuts will be driven by the incoming data.

aug 28, 2025, 11:18 pm • 16 1 • view

quite interesting he is direct responding to Powell on "unemployment rate is a good indicator" and "breakeven" job growth is lower" fronts but then advocates the same prescription as Powell

aug 28, 2025, 11:50 pm • 0 0 • view

Yeah this whole speech is just trying to refute each argument hawks have used point by point. Some of it is reasonable, much not.

aug 28, 2025, 11:52 pm • 4 0 • view

It must be hard to thread the needle of "we need more cuts, but Trump's economy isn't bad".

aug 28, 2025, 11:33 pm • 1 0 • view