Generally this was a good report for the doves, with durable goods prices falling in a surprise swing and continued rent disinflation. That said! Services PCE ex Energy/Housing (proxy for trend inflation ex tariffs) is firming. Stripping out imputed categories, it keeps running above 2%.
On the trade data, record capital goods imports. Consumer goods imports rose sequentially but remain very weak...treat supply chain still working through inventory. Total imports may have been driven by gold (included in industrial supplies).
Real income and spending have both softened this year. Both of these metrics rose ~4% annualized MoM in July.
So inflation is cooling in some areas but not others, the trade deficit suggests strong domestic demand but that can create future inflationary pressure, and consumer spending is tepidly encouraging... Would you imagine this would code as "wait and see what happens next" to the Fed?
Pls stop asking me this bsky.app/profile/dmbm...
OK, but can I get a mulligan?
I never asked before, but considering everyone is resigning or being fired, I think it’s a fair question every month. There will be an inflection point where the numbers are off and was just wondering if we are there yet.
Pearkes has explicitly said when some event (like the firing that followed the bad jobs report) starts to erode trust in the verity of the numbers, or lays the groundwork for possible future erosion!
It's less that there's literally no chance it can happen and more that, when it does, he'll tell us without people needing to ask in his mentions, I think is the thing
correct
Fair enough.
Fwiw your phrasing ("waiting for your cue") seemed much more reasonable than many. But I don't blame him for being rubbed raw on that particular topic. :)
I worked at a soup and salad buffet place once. People would look for spoons by the salad, at the beginning of the buffet. We had spoons by the soup, further along. There was a certain customer who would find this irritating, insisting spoons should be available sooner! 1/2
No amount of discussion or explanation mattered; we wound up putting spoons with salad to stop the annoyance. What I am saying is, you may need a disclaimer at the start of your skeets about the quality of economic numbers; get out ahead of the crowd early.
A lot of us are not fluent in this kind of stuff and as someone who teaches a lot, I genuinely think it’s bad form to bite people’s heads off for being curious. Anyways, I will shut up now as I don’t want anyone to block me as I found @peark.es posts extremely helpful in navigating this mess.
It's fine Meg
I really hope I did not come across as biting people heads off!
No not at all. Just seeing a few people who I rely on getting (understandably) frustrated at people in their mentions. Everyone just very stressed right now (also understandable)
Yeah, I'm surprised my hair isn't falling out again, tbh. And everyone else's hair, too!
For those at home: watch for hysteria at BLS akin to what happened at CDC yesterday. Personally I think it’s coming, but it ain’t here yet.
THAT is what I was asking. Thank you.
Read this one in a Stephen A Smith voice.
3% is the new 2% but they won't say that of course. (and I think 2.5-3 should have been the target all along)