Venezuelan government bonds (which are in default and trade for about a quarter of their face value, *with* a coupon near 10%) traded to session highs on the news that the US may* have started a war with them. *IANAL and we don't have all the facts here, don't yell at me pls
I will of course defer to @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social on all things EM fixed income (though Vene is sort of a special bag these days) but I think the logic here is that the US being willing to use force against Maduro is good for creditors, which strikes me as nuts but what do I know.
Eh, I think „regime change would be good for creditors” isn’t a wild way of looking at it if you don’t find the 19th Century style imperialism a dealbreaker
Doesn't it also raise "risk of catastrophic internal conflict that destroys capacity to repay anything for good" risk tho.
„A little bit of chaos to create order” is a strategy with a not exactly flawless history. But at low 20s c/$ I can see the investment case here
Could it be a relief rally after the “event” just being strikes against a drug smuggler?
No been climbing for over a week now
Something happening > nothing happening. See also: Lebanon.
plenty of natural resources to be diverted
Either this or Only destroying a single boat suggests that Trump is in serious about actually invading Venezuela.
Work w me;venz 10yr collateral for a sosocoin
why would the bonds go UP?
Weird example of hope that a war = regime change = eventually getting paid. But I think there’s a long way between now and that scenario esp as a new govt doesnt seem likely to want to pay bondholders soon. Seems like things will get worse before better
It's Venezuela's legal need to pay China first that got it into this mess, and of course it was commie anti-Americanism that caused Chavez et al to trust the US less than China.
That said, oil export volumes did go up last month as stuck volumes from the Chevron JV seem to have come to market… plus imports of diluent likely helped too bsky.app/profile/rezi...
Everyone laughed but these Iraqi dinars are going to pay off any second.
Iraqi dinars actually went up in value after the fall of Saddam because they stopped printing more of them.
The military threat to Venezuela has been largely exaggerated. Watch Chevron.