avatar
BCG @gawiseguy.bsky.social

Very few Jews voted for Trump. The ones who did aren't likely to be posting online on Saturday.

jul 5, 2025, 7:32 pm • 1 0

Replies

avatar
graham-o.bsky.social @graham-o.bsky.social

Got any facts to back that up ? Given voting is anonymous, I will assume that you haven’t. Money follows money and Trump has always let Israel so what it wants whereas Biden kept Netanyahu on a tight leash.

jul 5, 2025, 7:35 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
BCG @gawiseguy.bsky.social

www.google.com/amp/s/www.nb... Ask and ye shall receive!

jul 5, 2025, 7:37 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
graham-o.bsky.social @graham-o.bsky.social

Yeah. Exit polls mean nothing. People lie.

jul 5, 2025, 7:38 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
BCG @gawiseguy.bsky.social

Let's see if I've got this right, you believe that the stratified and adjusted final exit poll data means nothing. Out of curiosity, can you present any evidence besides your feelings to support your assertion?

jul 5, 2025, 7:46 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
graham-o.bsky.social @graham-o.bsky.social

Simple. I am really surprised you cannot work it out. What you put on a ballot, and what you tell an exit pollster are entirely unrelated. You can lie and nobody would know.

jul 5, 2025, 7:47 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
BCG @gawiseguy.bsky.social

When you've worked as many presidential elections as I have (5), calling races for a national network it's easy to forget that people don't understand the exit poll process. The final exit poll numbers are adjusted to fit the stratification of the samples. This includes demographics and vote ratios.

jul 5, 2025, 7:52 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
BCG @gawiseguy.bsky.social

While there absolutely still is an error bar on the numbers (it is a sample, after all), the numbers have always been shown, after adjustment, to be quite close after follow up studies.

jul 5, 2025, 7:54 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
graham-o.bsky.social @graham-o.bsky.social

But you still don’t know who voted what and so cannot work out how a specific religious subset vote.

jul 5, 2025, 7:55 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
BCG @gawiseguy.bsky.social

abcnews.go.com/Politics/ele.... This is a good primer on exit polls. Start there. You absolutely can make an estimate for subsets of the data like religious or racial groups.

jul 5, 2025, 8:08 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
graham-o.bsky.social @graham-o.bsky.social

TLDR just another estimate after estimate after estimate. That’s to say, anything you want it to be.

jul 5, 2025, 8:14 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
BCG @gawiseguy.bsky.social

Statistics is a wonderful subject to study. I promise you'll have a much better understanding of the world after taking a few semesters of it.

jul 5, 2025, 8:19 pm • 0 0 • view