New paper on climate & food security in sub-Saharan Africa generally expects yield *increases* (with some exceptions and a whole lot of spatial variation). The panel below shows total mean yields and relative yield changes compared to baseline 1981–2015, for a) SSP2‑4.5; b) SSP3‑7.0; and c) SSP5‑8.5
Link to paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
"Moreover, we failed to comprehensively account for non-climate factors, such as armed conflicts, pests and illnesses, and technical improvements, which are significant variables that impact food security." Seems to be a key point in their Discussion.
True. The following line seem important too though: "In particular, our simulations did not consider potential increases in research investment and technological innovation driven by economic growth (e.g., GDP), which may enhance future yields beyond what is projected here."
Very interesting, and perhaps not unsurprising.