Random 2028 thought not tied to the news cycle: I think the kinds of candidates I'd probably be more inclined to support are going to be fighting the last war and trying to optimize for South Carolina Black voters, but they'll miss a young/energy/progressive candidate smashing through in NY/CA.
Dem voters will go along with the dem candidate. I think we should do that fretting about predicting who would win in what places and just go with who we like. No matter who it is, the dems base will vote for them
I googled to see if Beshear has had any SC activity of late and this was a top result and now my soul is dying that I have knowledge about this whole subreddit. www.reddit.com/r/YAPms/s/Or...
That's not anywhere near enough delegates. Those aren't tipping points states.
Democrats are fighting the young with all they got right now. The party chairman is silent as democrats attack Mamdani, the parties nominee for mayor. He reassures those doing the attacking though.
cuz you are now a boomer :)
You’re still acting like 2028 is going to happen as usual
Yep
If they were going to take over wouldn’t it be right now?
But they can't help that NY or CA are not where the first primaries will take place. It will be Iowa or South Carolina.
Bernie got 36% in California, Warren got 13% -- what if someone like AOC just gets 50-60% there, changes the delegate math/strategy.
AOC's problem is that Newsom's political chops are probably just as good.
I think Newsom will be a huge dud
I think places like our respective neighborhoods would also flock to that sort of candidate.
Sort of related: the only 3 Dems with futures in politics who are really compelling podcast guests are AOC, Pete, and Mamdani.
Shapiro needs to hit the podcast circuit to prove his chops
I think of him as high energy but not interesting.
what about Beshear
cant see podcasts being his forum, same with the Ga Senators. Perhaps Gallego? Wes Moore needs to get out and try his hand at it. NC AG Jeff Jackson is a sneaky candidate. More I think about it, more it is strange Colorado (Gary Hart?) + Oregon + Washington have not produced a national candidate.
Way too boring imo. My gut feeling is Dems want to fall in love in 2028.
yeah le sigh
Hillary, Biden, and Kamala were all compromise candidates. You can’t keep telling hyped-up voters to eat their vegetables.
Feels like Beto came at the wrong cycle.
Yeah, the F-bomb thing would play better now.
The Dems will want someone who promises to stomp on Trumpism. That's not really Pete. Shapiro, Pritzker, etc.
Pritzker I am tbd on. Its for sure not Gretch.
He's a great governor for us in KY, but I personally don't even enjoy listening to him talk. The poor guy has no real speaking skills and even less charisma. I don't see a national audience getting behind him.
I haven’t listened to Beshear’s podcast. Seems he is having people come to him via go on others. He has had Cuban, Walz & Moore on recently.
I think you could expand this list to include Pritzker if Pete is on it.
How about Ossoff or Warnock?
Maybe I’m just anti-Pritzker. I don’t think the big boy Chicago guy vibe plays, but I know others disagree.
I feel Pritzker might be a well suited VP choice, add gravitas and experience to a younger Pres. candidate. We should have had that the last time but then we silenced Walz, this go-around let Pritzker be the bulldog.
An AOC/Pritzker ticket makes sense to me as one possibility.
I don't want to be "that guy" but honestly I just can't abide putting up another woman this time ... haven't we learned anything from the past 2 times?
I have to agree. After the last two times give me a middle aged white man from Midwest and or South. Both white men for P and VP on ticket. Sadly almost half of this country may still NOT be ready for a woman President.
Nah, it's glass cliff time.
While I see your point, I'm thinking things may be so fucked by the next election it may be the time to swing for the fences
It sucks, but yes it's true.
Perhaps. I think he could also fit into the category of jolly and straightshootin' Midwest dad vibe, and it helps he can be seen as a wealthy egalitarian
I worry about that too and clearly I'm a fan but he's authentic and a fighter, it might work better than we fear
I have historically had a spotty record at these things so when it comes to specific candidates I don’t trust my predictions much.
Yeah he’s pugnacious. For the purposes of “who would be interesting on a podcast” that’s enough IMO.
The governor who fights off ICE best will be the nominee.
I think people are heavily influenced right now by his bad convention speech, but people have come back from those before. (It sure was a puzzling speech though! In more relaxed settings he's affable and laid-back; what he was thinking bellowing every word I'll never know.)
I think the tough guy image may work with some Trumpers.
to me Pritzker gives off Chris Christie vibes circa 2010-ish. Not sure why. Maybe it's the body type :)
Please take my much needed like for putting out an opinion that will be wildly unpopular in the BlueSky cesspool, but is one that we need to hear. They don't call Chicago the Windy City for nothing.
Pritzker's path is leaning the hardest into the "I will put Trump and Stephen Miller in prison" lane
I don't think that's a problem at all, we elected the biggest asshole in NYC twice. The "billionaire scion" thing is a far bigger issue.
Walz is boring on paper but did great on every media appearance, mainstream and alt, he was on
It’ll depend heavily on which states are voting when on the primary calendar tbh
2028 seems primed for a very different order than in previous cycles
Analogous to legacy/linear TV having a shrinking but still large share of profits, aside growing streaming with more and more eyeballs but still-uncertain ROI. It’s basically institutional vs. entrepreneurial strains.
I think that the clearest signal right now is that none of us has any idea what the political landscape will look like in 2028.
I spent 2020-2024 saying that if Trump won in 2024, everyone should expect President AOC in 2028. It was mostly a joke, but after seeing Mamdani I'm starting to wonder.
Gavin and Cuomo are different politicians but I think the failed Cuomo mayoral run is bad for Gavin's chances.
Newsome's biggest problem isn't the whole footsie-with-anti-woke stuff, it's authenticity. The guy just oozes that fake, overly-calculating, part-of-the-establishment attitude that's kryptonite to voters right now.
Voters seem to want three things right now: authenticity, an acknowledgment that the status quo sucks, and to a lesser extent, novelty.
Based on that, with the possible exception of AOC (who as of this moment does not have the same presidential momentum Obama already had in 2005), I really can't envision any of the current names being bandied about (Buttigieg, Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsome, Harris, Moore, Beshear) winning the nom.
I suspect that like Mandani, whoever wins the Dems nomination in 2028 will come out of nowhere (relatively speaking).
He also looks like an actor hired to play the politician who is the bad guy in a movie.
Gavin comes across as Bill Clinton’s heir. We’re in a totally different paradigm right now though.
The dipshit podcast is what’s bad for Newsom.
At this point, the only things that could stop AOC from a legit bid for the White House would be 1) she doesn't want to or 2) Trump declares her candidacy illegal Because Reasons and the courts affirm it.
how do Shapiro and Pritzker fit into this?
They both feel like tweener candidates to me.
still a long way to go until 2028, but neither fit in your heuristic.
The long drawn-out primary process needs to be reformed. It favors some states over others, and gives way too much power to the big-money donors with pockets deep enough to fund marathon campaigns.
If Zohran were eligible he'd almost certainly be in the mix, right?
Probably yeah
I mean over all the good news is boomers are dying off and hopefully at an accelerating rates with the Medicaid cuts and Millennials are becoming a bigger part of the voting base. We are being left a complete burning trash heap of a country to fix but it is a matter of time.
