This is a very strangely-worded contract but is basically a pure play on the thing:
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13% betting markets on Trump being dead by years end is wild!
sep 1, 2025, 12:17 am • 4 0 • view
I was looking for this scenario but didn’t see this one…
sep 1, 2025, 12:31 am • 1 0 • view
Looking at history, the odds are surprisingly decent on this bet. 2 VP resignations, 7 VPs passed away, and 9 VPs ascended to the presidency.
sep 1, 2025, 12:18 am • 6 0 • view
In the next 4 months though…
sep 1, 2025, 12:19 am • 5 0 • view
6 month default actuarial is ~8% so it’s a hefty premium
sep 1, 2025, 12:32 am • 3 0 • view
Yeah, 13% isn't based on a bunch of VPs in the 1800s passing away from illness.
sep 1, 2025, 12:21 am • 6 0 • view
Guessing the first hump is Epstein related?
sep 1, 2025, 12:19 am • 0 0 • view
Most first humps from this administration are Epstein related
sep 1, 2025, 3:00 am • 2 0 • view
Wonder how that 13% compares to an actuarial table
sep 1, 2025, 4:49 am • 0 0 • view
the way its worded suggests it was original meant to cover vance being assassinated
sep 1, 2025, 12:19 am • 1 0 • view
So there betting Vance is gay?
sep 1, 2025, 1:50 am • 3 0 • view
I need to get back on the Kalshi app.
sep 1, 2025, 1:32 am • 0 0 • view
I find prediction markets have a 15-25% "sucker bet" penalty so this tracks
sep 1, 2025, 1:50 am • 1 0 • view
Interesting that you can't wager on a person's death, but here's a bankshot.
sep 1, 2025, 12:23 am • 11 0 • view
I think this wording actually gives a ton of free optionality as well! Trump gets rid of him, something ut oh’s JD or the thing it actually means. Can’t be a part of this type of bet despite a wry smile at what it implies….but the gambler in me loves the edge!
sep 1, 2025, 2:59 am • 0 0 • view