I don’t know if people realize how much work has gone into this thread and just how many challenges there are getting this stuff. Just getting the data is much more difficult than it should be. They don’t want us to see it.

But even making the graphic was a lot to set up.

So I think I’m entitled to whine…just a little bit… MOVING ON!

‼️ The Russian Ministry of Finance has announced that it will offer 2 Constant Coupon Bonds at Q3 Auction Day 6 on 6 August 2025 👉 PD-26248 👉 PD-26225 www.interfax.ru/russia/1039750

I’ve outlined them in red on my table. PD-26225 is one of the old ones with the really low coupon rates, so even though there 100 Billion “in stock” we should expect big discounts on it. Both of the bonds have a coupon payment remaining in 2025.

I also want to point out that, here lately, those lower coupon rate bonds haven’t necessarily been selling. It’s sort of hit or miss.

We’ll just have to see what happens tomorrow! There are some coupon payments due tomorrow also

About 20 billion is due.

For reference: Here are the all bonds with payments due in August.

I’m addition, we should be getting the data on the National Welfare Fund soon. I think that covers everything! We’ll see what happens tomorrow. Per Usual… IT WILL GET WORSE ~ The End ~

So what you're saying is, in order to cover the deficit the straight line needs to be way above the bars (way more thannot has been to date), not just staying a bit above?

YUP!

This is a bit like working a logic puzzle because there are things that we don’t know and that we can’t see. So we’re working with what we can see. And even though I put their goals on the left side of the graph, that doesn’t mean that their goals are accurate in meeting their needs.

You can see the expenses on this graph on the right side, and then the revenue in the center. And then you can see the big difference between the Placements on the left and the revenue currently. I can forecast the number on the right, the expenses, for the end of the year, reasonably close.

That’s the 4.59 Trillion, and there’s a chance that total will go up by the end of the year.

So if they need a loan to pay for anything else other than their debt…. For example, A WAR Then they need borrow above that amount.

And we’re in the range that, it’s possible the liquid assets of the NWF will not be adequate to cover it all. So…they could empty all cash in there and still not cover the deficit. But we don’t know how bad it is yet.

Whine away. We'll just enjoy getting the behind the scenes peak at how you crafted this work of art.

A lot of work, a lot of time. Can't thank you enough. Your the best source for this type of deep analysis I've found. May the russian default come quickly.

'Tis the season.

I'm betting on cascading defaults.