Getting good data on what exactly is going on is very difficult. But we can determine that it’s not good, and that debt is a problem.
Getting good data on what exactly is going on is very difficult. But we can determine that it’s not good, and that debt is a problem.
There is another Central Bank Meeting in 12 September. The key rate has been reduced twice since the beginning of the year 21% to 20% 20% to 18% The general belief in Russian publications is that the key rate will be reduced at the next meeting.
But there’s a problem. Rates on Deposits have now dropped BELOW Inflation expectations which have INCREASED. Deposits in banks are already dropping for a variety of reasons. Further reductions may make this situation even worse.
And 21% vs 18% already isn’t enough of a drop to provide the relief needed to save companies buried in debt.
I’m struggling to find the point where I’m providing too much vs too little information. But when discussing the total situation with Russian Railways which is linked with the total economic situation of the country, it does become all encompassing
There are already reports that the price drop expected in the fall as a result of the harvest coming in over, and that inflation will only go up from here. As a result, weakening of the ruble to boost exports may cause food prices to skyrocket.
The government is continuing to push for stronger price controls on food products. These controls will generally only impact domestic products, further killing domestic production and increasing reliance of imports.
The government is trying to deal with a ballooning deficit. They are moving toward trying to increase taxes on small businesses.
Everyone has already had their taxes increased significantly. As I’ve said before, this isn’t the beginning of a crisis, it’s the middle of one. Feeding this war is unsustainable. You can only tax so much, you can only cut so much.
And they’ve been aggressively working all of the angles since 2023. (Cutting costs on things other than the war, increasing taxes, etc)