“"As for the deficit, we have already revised it (in the spring of this year - IF), it has become a little bigger - 1.7% of GDP. Perhaps it will be a little bigger. I mean that cooling is still underway, the economy is slowing down faster than expected.”” Let’s look at the original budget deficit

Far right column below is the original budget number 👉 1.173 Trillion rubles And people are talking about 8 trillion now.

“The source noted that due to lower expectations for GDP growth, the base for budget revenues will also shrink, which, in turn, may require the mobilization of resources.” FROM WHERE? They’re already “eating their seed corn”

“"The economy is slowing down. If earlier we expected a growth rate of 1.5%, now it is already 1.2% GDP growth. Accordingly, the resource base is also shrinking, so we will mobilize resources this year and, accordingly, we will prepare the budget for next year based on this," he explained.”

THEY HAVEN’T EVEN FIGURED OUT WHAT TO DO ABOUT THIS YEAR! How can you plan next year if you can’t even predict this year?

“The Ministry of Finance has not yet announced the preliminary parameters of the draft budget for 2026 and the planning period 2027-2028.” Or the next amended budget for 2025. They need to decide and have all the paperwork ready before the end of the month. TICK TOCK!

Mobilize already shrinking resources, that'll work for 2026 as well.

Fake it until you make it.

Or until you default

If you default when you only borrow money on your own market, it means that you throw your banks under the bus. If a single bank collapse and default to its customer, then all dominos are falling in a few hours.

We've discussed a possible hidden default where customers can't withdraw or spend their money but the bank pretends it's still in the account.

You speak here about individuals but they are not the most of the money a bank is managing. Most of the money is coming from companies. If a company can't use its money, the company collapse (they don't pay employees, can't buy anything,...).

Fake it until you fail it :)

'performative' governance. It's that rascist twist!

It's simple. They plan on Ukraine surrendering and the U.S. resuming normalization efforts. When that doesn't pan out, I dunno. Full state run economy? Mobilization 2? Print money, implement capital controls, and go full Zimbabwe?

What? Is every russian now going to sell their blood every month?

I'd say that it's quite unimportant what percentage of GDP the deficit is. But as I see the curent trends, the much more important thing is, that they'll be lacking roughly some 20% of complete budget income and the deficit will reach 25% of expenditures, I still can't see how they plan to cover it.

It looks my prediction, probably less than 24 trillion, but I hope I'm wrong, is still possible.

If that's what they're putting out now, it'll probably get to 10 trillion, especially with Ukraine popping alone or two refineries per day and gas export restrictions through end of October at least.