Russia’s oil & gas production, refinery, transport, & port export terminals are the targets Oil/gas 25% of their revenue.. govt spending on war ~ 40% of their budget. Another 32 % is national defense. Their liquid financial reserves will be exhausted in 6-9 months. Interntl reserves FROZEN.
If soldiers & govt workers don’t get paid, if there are runs on Russian banks, if oil & gas can’t be supplied to front lines, if Russia can’t pay N Korea/Iran… The war becomes unsustainable. Watch from Ukrainian deep strikes in Russia in next 30 days. Then ramp up in Oct-Dec as missile production ⬆️
Russia will run out of cash on hand before it runs out of money. Their central bank will be likely unable to prevent currency devaluations, making things worse . Putin will enlist Trump to help him obtain a cease fire will maintaining maximalist demands. Europe will have to push back hard on Trump.
Btw I hateTrump for MANY reasons including his Putin glazing & hostility towards Ukraine, but 1 thing done right (to help his terrible public opinion, not to help Ukraine) has been to keep oil prices down. This keeps Russian revenue from increasing. Thank god for that unintentional help from DJT lol