if Sherrod wins it's probably an environment where we've won at least one of Alaska, Texas, or Iowa. that's not a hit on Sherrod, but his 1-3 point overperformance will be compared to the national environment
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his disapproves are distressingly high here - i think it's like 44/40 approve/disapprove - but he still did only lose by 3.6 in 2024, so at the very least there's some kind of chance
aug 24, 2025, 12:17 am • 6 0 • view
Husted is an empty suit DeWine-ite, but hasn't voted against Trump literally once, maybe enough to pin some of this shit on him, hard to say I think Beto vs. Paxton and Peltola vs. Sullivan are slightly better bets tbqh
aug 24, 2025, 12:18 am • 5 0 • view
Texas will be interesting if Paxton wins the primary. I don't know if that necessarily means more competitive than the electorate in general, because it's Texas, but also if those Hispanic swings against Trump are transferable...
aug 24, 2025, 12:46 am • 3 0 • view
it's really important that Democrats land multiple candidates in Texas, running a full slate will benefit them all, and maybe 1-2 of them punch through (Beto is very adamant this was the flaw in 2018, which is maybe the most comparable year to what 2026 could look like? certainly not 22)
aug 24, 2025, 12:48 am • 7 0 • view
and like, i struggle to see why the NRSC would be trying SO hard to save Cornyn unless they had good reason to believe Paxton was a serious liability
aug 24, 2025, 12:49 am • 2 0 • view
Sherrod could win and I hope he does, but he’s also trying to be senator of a state that doesn’t exist anymore.
aug 24, 2025, 2:03 am • 3 0 • view
elite candidates help you win the marginal races, they don't make a Likely race competitive by thenselves, ask Larry Hogan
aug 23, 2025, 11:36 pm • 52 0 • view
I still remember how in early 2024 there were polls showing alsobrooks losing the primary and the general by double digits. Was beautiful.
aug 23, 2025, 11:44 pm • 9 1 • view
I'm afraid Ohio is just Like That now.
aug 23, 2025, 11:39 pm • 9 0 • view
it's a Red state the same way Colorado is a blue state
aug 23, 2025, 11:39 pm • 15 0 • view
Husted was up to his eyeballs in the First Energy scandal. Republicans took $60million in bribes, and handed First Energy $2Billion in taxpayer money. DeWine was a leader, and he appointed his pal Husted, also on the take, to the Senate.
aug 24, 2025, 9:26 pm • 1 1 • view
And now we’re fucked with all the database energy horseshit happening.
aug 25, 2025, 9:11 pm • 0 0 • view
Totally fair but if there’s ever going to be an election where we win one of Alaska, Texas or Iowa, 2026 is it.
aug 24, 2025, 12:10 am • 1 0 • view