there is zero longevity to this regime like as soon as he goes that's it, Vance will crumble and lose any hope of not holding elections
Replies
i've said this recently before but honestly i really do worry that we might be wrong about at least some of this Vance's favorables jumped after his debate with Walz. he's pretty cringe and also out of touch but that's all i can say for absolute certain
sep 1, 2025, 4:28 am • 17 0 • view
i am aware that verbalizing this here makes me sound like an idiot, and that several people will reply accordingly, but i am trying to use the part of my brain that went "what if we lose" all year last year some more
sep 1, 2025, 4:30 am • 12 0 • view
It’s a solid thought exercise that literally didn’t occur to me
sep 1, 2025, 6:24 am • 0 0 • view
to be clear it is just that - a thought exercise. it's not a prediction. my actual prediction is that i have none, because i have no clue what happens if Vance becomes president, I really don't
sep 1, 2025, 7:21 am • 4 0 • view
I think the thing that makes me most confident Vance will flounder is that he isn’t Trump and the people who that matters to aren’t us. Dems are incandescent at the whole lot of them, undecideds don’t know who he is, and he needs to keep together the GOP without the aura and fanatical base of Trump.
sep 1, 2025, 4:55 am • 2 0 • view
Vance is much smarter than Trump, he has a far more defined ideology and goals, and is extremely dangerous, but he also hasn’t spent decades becoming a synonym for wealth and success and business cunning to the general populace. He doesn’t have 30% of the GOP set on voting only for him every time.
sep 1, 2025, 4:55 am • 4 0 • view
my only real counterpoint: how do we know that for sure? this all sounds like conjecture to me.
sep 1, 2025, 5:03 am • 1 0 • view
We can't know, and we shouldn't count on it, but I will say this: none of my Trump fan relatives ever talk about Vance. They forget he even exists. When he was picked they thought he seemed too weird and punchable. So. Idk. He definitely doesn't have as wide of an appeal, that I can tell you.
sep 1, 2025, 5:58 am • 6 0 • view
well that's good to know. i don't have any diehard Trump relatives, so i don't really encounter that perspective
sep 1, 2025, 6:02 am • 3 0 • view
Fair point, although Trump barely has enough magnetism to get other Republicans elected. I don’t know if any version of Vance could carry the GOP. Plus, Walz was instructed to be nice to Vance, not sure he will get away with his human-appearing act once he’s in charge.
sep 1, 2025, 6:23 am • 3 0 • view
electorally I think they're kinda fucked either way, this is more of a 'vance as president' line of thinking. I don't think vance could recover the GOP enough to somehow win in 2028, even if he reversed course on all of Trump's excesses (which he won't because he's a true believer)
sep 1, 2025, 7:25 am • 5 0 • view
like the GOP's policy platform is unpopular as it is *before* you add in Trump's chicanery, which he has converted some amount of them on anyhow. a 'Generic R vs Generic D' election in 2028 would probably 19 times out of 20 go to the Democrat basically regardless of who it is.
sep 1, 2025, 7:25 am • 5 0 • view
I also feel like Trump benefits from people liking him and hating his policies - literal “love the king, hate the king’s advisors”. Vance presumably won’t have the same protection and will be forced to own this broadly-unpopular agenda.
sep 1, 2025, 7:33 am • 5 0 • view
trump doesn't have any true policies and he benefits from that. he believes in 2 things (racism and tariffs) and improvises the rest, which means voters can basically pretend he believes anything. this does not filter down to Vance or whoever because they *do* have policies and bad ones at that!
sep 1, 2025, 7:47 am • 3 0 • view
Yeah totally, Trump is more of a Rorschach test, he’s so unreliable and flaky that people believe whatever they want about him. Vance is definitely an ideologue and his potential ability to communicate clearly could make him easier for voters to pin down.
sep 1, 2025, 7:54 am • 2 0 • view
vance is *also* an ideological chameleon, though. he went from opposing from in the first term to... whatever he is now. though, he's definitely become slightly brain poisoned enough to believe at least some portion of what he says. and the Thiel money helps.
sep 1, 2025, 8:10 am • 2 0 • view
I understand the concern, but if Trump's health really is circling the drain right now, we may well be locked into the timeline where we get to find out how Vance does as Pres sooner or later anyways. Might as well hope for the best while we wait to see if we should be worried or not.
sep 1, 2025, 6:13 am • 1 0 • view
i hoped for the best in 2024 and didn't get it, so i'm trying to be more pragmatic now. i'm not for sure declaring that Vance *can't* eat shit (as president*) - he absolutely can - but it's more of a 'wait and see' for me right now. *= he's eating shit in 2028 regardless, that much I do believe
sep 1, 2025, 7:19 am • 2 0 • view
Yeah, I keep reminding myself not to get caught up in making predictions after last year. And Vance is definitely dangerous in his own way; but a different danger than Trump, maybe lesser. And honestly just the idea of a major shake-up feels like an opportunity. It's been nonstop Trump for so long.
sep 1, 2025, 7:25 am • 4 0 • view
yeah i agree that all of this is a massive opportunity, for sure
sep 1, 2025, 10:49 am • 0 0 • view
Also, in much the same way as repeatedly manifesting "Trump is frail and dying" is wishcasting that punctures their illusion of invincibility, making "Vance would be a weak and floundering President" the common wisdom might be advantageous. We can't actually determine that but we can set the tone.
sep 1, 2025, 6:16 am • 5 3 • view
i'm not really big on manifesting, again, i tried that before and it didn't work. time to be realistic instead. Also, it's not my job to 'set a tone'. I'm just a person online expressing my opinions. I don't have that kind of power!
sep 1, 2025, 7:20 am • 1 0 • view
"Vance is measuring the drapes and looking where to stick the knife," which that USA Today article is *ample* paranoia fuel, he did that to himself.
sep 1, 2025, 9:29 am • 1 0 • view
He’s very good at knowing what face to present to the media and I worry he could catch a lot of Dems off guard
sep 1, 2025, 4:29 am • 8 0 • view
i mean i don't think he's good at much of anything but he's not Trump and i'm concerned that is enough to cause some people to go "oh, okay, we're good now"
sep 1, 2025, 4:31 am • 7 0 • view
That’s my big concern and why we need to be highlighting his most negative traits (fascism, gasping for advantage, being Peter Thiel’s rentboy, probably creeping on tween Nazis, being willing to throw away any convictions if it gets him power, pettiness)
sep 1, 2025, 4:35 am • 7 0 • view
i still think he's toast in the general election in 2028, but part of that is a result of all of the crazy unpopular shit they're doing and that they're actively destroying the economy in various ways it's a Voltron of different crises and not all of them are self-inflicted
sep 1, 2025, 4:37 am • 3 0 • view
Well see
sep 1, 2025, 4:39 am • 1 0 • view
are there really rumors that Vance is gay?
sep 1, 2025, 4:54 am • 5 0 • view
No but him being in group chats with (at the time) teenage groypers is actually real bsky.app/profile/shar...
sep 1, 2025, 4:58 am • 16 1 • view
Not that specifically but it’s snappier than calling him Thiel’s whit-headed boy
sep 1, 2025, 4:56 am • 3 0 • view
Vance screams egg to me
sep 1, 2025, 5:09 am • 4 0 • view
Ok you said it out loud
sep 1, 2025, 5:11 am • 3 0 • view
I generally adhere to the prime directive but he’s beyond saving
sep 1, 2025, 5:28 am • 4 0 • view
His favorables need to drop at least ten or twenty points before Trump is pronounced dead imo
sep 1, 2025, 4:36 am • 1 0 • view
On the topic of his being Thiel's rentboy, worth remembering that the thing that allegedly pissed off Thiel the most about the Great Recession was that it wasn't another Great Depression
sep 1, 2025, 4:41 am • 0 1 • view
Man remember when the left was supposedly the “immanentize the eschaton” faction
sep 1, 2025, 4:43 am • 3 0 • view
I feel like, if there is a recession, Trump could gaslight some (most??) of his base into thinking things were fine. I can't see JD doing this, let alone if he makes things noticeably worse
sep 1, 2025, 4:56 am • 0 0 • view
why would Vance make the economy *worse*? I could maybe see him at least maintaining everything going on, but I could also see him (and other Republicans) being smart enough to understand that if there's a recession, they're going off the cliff too
sep 1, 2025, 4:59 am • 2 0 • view
JD becoming the first incumbent president to lose their party primary, at the hands of Trump Jr for "killing my dad AND the economy"
sep 1, 2025, 4:57 am • 1 0 • view
not that trump is really sitting pretty there either but so much of this is about Trump - the GOP will revert to pure grift and niche grievances
sep 1, 2025, 4:12 am • 85 2 • view
the challenge of red state tyranny and the captured courts will remain, to be clear. but federally it's going to fall apart
sep 1, 2025, 4:15 am • 86 5 • view
you need the plausible deniability of being everything to everyone Trump has mastered over the years, Vance has none of that
sep 1, 2025, 4:16 am • 77 6 • view
Vance is the guy who crashed into your parked car explaining why it’s your fault.
sep 1, 2025, 5:26 am • 0 0 • view
he's also not creative, a thing Trump has in spades even if most of what he comes up with is stupid
sep 1, 2025, 4:17 am • 67 3 • view
Trump keeps people on their toes with a firehose of bullshit and stuff that's so old it sounds new. can you actually see Vance doing that? he cares way too much about how he's received
sep 1, 2025, 4:19 am • 70 7 • view
yes, it's completely impossible to imitate even if you aren't a weird freak like Vance bsky.app/profile/king...
sep 1, 2025, 4:21 am • 78 6 • view
I disagree, in that I think Trump's apparent magic in 2024 was a combination of the media running interference for him & willful self-deception on the part of the electorate; no reason those things can't help Vance. But I agree in that Vance doesn't have a decade-old personality-cult around him
sep 1, 2025, 4:34 am • 13 1 • view
And he won't get an easy landing, either; the GOP isn't the outparty, Americans really aren't happy with it, and he'd have to have rather more political talent than I give him credit for to turn this situation around
sep 1, 2025, 4:34 am • 13 2 • view
self-deception that has served no one since Trump since Dobbs
sep 1, 2025, 6:51 am • 9 0 • view
a reasonable point, although i believe the willful self-deception from the media and electorate does stem from trump's unique qualities. reporters think trump is more 'fun' (bc of his chaos) and low-info voters believe he's more 'moderate' (bc businessman). vance won't necessarily inherit that.
sep 1, 2025, 6:03 am • 9 0 • view
How much of the machinery in place will be enough though to just push the movement forward? How much does it rely on Trump at this point? How much could he serve as a sort of dead prophet figure?
sep 1, 2025, 4:27 am • 5 0 • view
The simple fact that he tries to think through his bullshit while his lips are moving and presents it like a pedant totally devaluates it. Most especially among MAGA.
sep 1, 2025, 4:25 am • 0 0 • view
i also think he will not be able to separate his online and offline personas in public image in a way trump has
sep 1, 2025, 4:32 am • 2 0 • view
going from the guy who spent 40 years playing the character of America's id on TV to a juiceless twerp is not the thing that sustains cults of personality actually
sep 1, 2025, 4:19 am • 6 0 • view
They'll just realize they really liked being able to just bitch all day, bitch on Fox all night and fundraise off how shitty the other guys are. It's a dream life in many ways.
sep 1, 2025, 4:18 am • 2 0 • view
the coalition is already collapsing and the only thing holding any of this together is his rapidly failing heartbeat
sep 1, 2025, 4:13 am • 7 1 • view
Incredible yet terrifying power to give us tbh
sep 1, 2025, 4:16 am • 2 0 • view
Even beyond Vance, we have enough evidence to show that it really is just Trump the person. People who have tried to imitate Trump (even really good approximations like Lauren Boebert) just fail miserably
sep 1, 2025, 4:47 am • 3 0 • view
I'm also skeptical of the longevity of the GOP at the federal level at this rate. The absolute soonest that I can imagine another Republican having a chance of being elected president is 2036, and that's assuming that they don't just run Don Jr. in every election after Vance loses.
sep 1, 2025, 4:20 am • 8 0 • view
I'm skeptical of such pronouncements after what happened to Carter but I'm optimistic.
sep 1, 2025, 4:21 am • 2 0 • view
the secret was that carter basically made every mistake it was possible to make
sep 1, 2025, 4:48 am • 1 0 • view
I think the economic circumstances were like getting struck by lightning. I can't speak to the other stuff.
sep 1, 2025, 5:05 am • 0 0 • view
Bush was *supposed* to be the last Republican president for a while after he fucked everything up, and Trump is the main reason why that didn't remain the case for long. 2022 also feels like a sign that Dems might be able to survive a midterm under a Dem president under better conditions.
sep 1, 2025, 4:24 am • 10 0 • view
I think thermostatics plus the two-party bias of fptp will keep the gop afloat but
sep 1, 2025, 4:37 am • 6 0 • view
The biggest problem that the Republicans are facing is that once Trump is gone, this (and how much the senate favors them) is really the only thing keeping the party alive. The post Trump GOP is also going to go even more insane, cause they've learned all of the wrong lessons from him.
sep 1, 2025, 4:46 am • 4 0 • view
I think what happens if we rebuild a functional democracy with appropriate economic reforms is either a GOP that purges the far right and has internal cordon sanitares, a GOP collapse followed by a Dem fission, or a shift to MMP/PR creating a general party restructuring
sep 1, 2025, 4:41 am • 8 1 • view
I wouldn’t break out the champagne so quickly. I agree Vance will be in a super weak position but also everyone was saying exactly this when Chavez died and Maduro took over in Venezuela.
sep 1, 2025, 7:13 am • 1 0 • view
Or when Putin got appointed
sep 1, 2025, 7:54 am • 1 0 • view
Doesn’t matter which clown is out front entertaining the crowd, the rightwing agenda circus is going full three ring in the background.
sep 1, 2025, 7:58 am • 0 0 • view
I'm gonna go hold a sign that says "Resign Couch Fucker" on the South Lawn and I bet you within six months he does. My mans could be stuffed into a locker by a stiff breeze.
sep 1, 2025, 10:51 am • 0 0 • view
Trump picked Vance because: 1) he would enthusiastically enable another January 6th if it came down to it, and 2) Vance wouldn’t overshadow him. The fact that Vance has the charisma of expired milk helps with both of these.
sep 1, 2025, 4:23 am • 16 0 • view
I simply do not think Vance has the mental fortitude to order the arrest of the 2026 incoming class of Democratic Congress members.
sep 1, 2025, 4:21 am • 9 0 • view
it's not like trump does either, he balks at the slightest counterpunch
sep 1, 2025, 4:26 am • 6 0 • view
I hope you're right. He will have to be far more actively involved than in J6. Barring a catastrophe or significant escalation in the meantime (not sure if that's a good assumption), that's going to be a (the?) do-or-die moment for American democracy.
sep 1, 2025, 4:33 am • 3 0 • view
if it happens soon it'll mean the internet successfully cyberbullied two presidents of the united states out of office in a row
sep 1, 2025, 4:12 am • 31 2 • view
Wait, can he be cyberbullied into dying? Is it actually that easy?
sep 1, 2025, 7:17 am • 2 0 • view
It's worth a shot.
sep 1, 2025, 12:32 pm • 3 0 • view
when trump says anything to a group of 20 people they all hear like 20 different things when vance says anything to a group of 20 people they all go "I don't like this man"
sep 1, 2025, 4:19 am • 57 11 • view
The Universally Punchable Face we all thought Ted Cruz was the most unlikeable person in politics but
sep 1, 2025, 5:31 am • 5 0 • view
I want to be confident in this but i don’t think I can be confident until the current veep and the entire cabinet are dead, in jail, or blackballed from any elected office above dog catcher
sep 1, 2025, 4:32 am • 7 0 • view
The big benefit of Trump to the movement is his combination of shamelessness and showmanship. No one else has that, and all that have tried to fake it have failed miserably.
sep 1, 2025, 4:18 am • 7 0 • view