China wants russia to last against Europe until they move on Taiwan, as an insurance. The war weakens and distracts the US ofcourse and makes China alot of money, but it also insures the US can't go nuclear first, because not only China but also russia will simply go nuclear in response.

I do not believe this. Israel has own nukes, and iran is a rational actor. They would live like Pakistan and India. I believe bombing iran was a major misstep in US policy (real politic wise). It tells every nation: build a nuke and us won't touch you. It was in the short term interest of Natanyahu.

Clearly Israel and the US think differently.

I'll actually concede this point. I too don't believe Iran would simply first strike Israel. But you can look at North Korea and see how it would change everything. Like russia, Iran would use its nuclear shield to cover its offensive operations.

I do believe russia committed a suicide with this war, so I do not think this is a good example to follow.

Israel Iran is different. They don't border and Iran extensively deploys proxy forces. Israel and the US wouldn't be able to strike Iran directly if it had nukes. Iran would be emboldened. And we know what they want.