It doesn't mean WWIII is inevitable. But to deter war one must prepare for war. To not prepare is to lose.

That's prisoners dilemma for you.

As long as there's no obvious weakness to exploit, cooperation is the rational play.

Not a bit. You see, I believe in humans, not countries. So I'm not even sure if it is a war that is worth actually fighting. Trying to deter - absolutely. Fighting - I'm not so sure.

Your weakness will be China's opportunity. Weakness is the problem. It provokes aggression.

>Weakness is the problem That's only if we are stuck in this tribalist mentality. Humanity as a whole might not make it if instead of spending resources on survival we spend them on wars. But I understand that it takes 2 to tango, so unless everyone accepts this - no one will. Coordination problem.

Weakness invites aggression. Welcome to the jungle.

Rules of the game determine possible range of the outcomes. Playing jungle game on a planet with limited resources does not suggest good outcomes. We need a better game, but I know, we don’t get to pick it

Note how the US keeps cooperating eventhough russia keeps betraying them. Because if they start betraying eachother the outcome could be much worse. russia effectively broke the game. And they're stuck playing betrayal.

Confrontation is required but no one wants to do it. Because they fear the consequences. Meanwhile russia continues due to a lack of consequence.

As soon as we allowed nuclear brinkmsnship to run cover for unprovoked invasions, we gave away the game. Now russia gets to pick us off one by one.

This is where I strongly disagree. I think russia got all the consequences possible and then some. Economy, population collapse is not a joke.

Ukraine fights alone. 100.000 men short. Losing territory. Relentlessly bombed. The West its credibility and deterrence in shambles. And the war isn't over yet. It's the West scrambling for peace, not russia.

It's not merely fear of consequence, it's also lack of capability. Europe is too weak. That's what invited russian aggression in the first place.

no, don't get me wrong. I totally get the game. But I would also say: in a world of great power competition, it was all but inevitable, sooner or later.