& control into them (that was the reason all Chinese 5G network technology was banned in NATO countries & their phones may not be used by military members or families, & the objection to ByteDance owning TikTok. Unlike the US, the CCP has a very well crafted & long range strategic vision & isn’t
run by toddlers who are bought & paid for, with little thought past manipulating share prices over the next week or two. What markets do you really think they will lose? If you actually look at the economic dependencies of various countries on China, the US is pretty independent- but the rest of
the world is very dependent. Worse, Trump’s insane trade war is simply going to drive ever more countries to do increasingly large amounts of business with the far more reliable & predictable partner (on the surface), China - Which doesn’t abrogate its international agreements, further isolating
the USA and increasing China’s power & influence in the world. China will take Taiwan & Trump & Hegseth will not do anything to stop it. I mean, they just expended almost half (14 out of 30-35) of our MOST important strategic weapon when it comes to a conflict with China or Russia, the MOPs
For an ill conceived attack on Iran which may not have been successful at destroying the 600KG of 60% UF₆ they possessed (it’s a gas, you don’t need trucks to move it, it can be piped away), nor destroying their centrifuge capacity (they are small and very easy to relocate or hide) & so wasn’t
certain to have accomplished what should not have been our objective to begin with, and which more than anything was a made up emergency created by Trump when he tore up the previous Iran deal in his first term So, in short - China has NOTHING stopping them from taking Taiwan except Taiwan &
EVERY strategic reason to do so. There is no true economic deterrence that will prevent it, in fact the economic realities favor them taking it, my opinion is they are only delaying to maximize their advantages there, to build up their weapon stockpiles, & as we have done -deplete many of ours in
the Middle East, supplying them to Israel, Saudi’s, Qatar, &other unpublicized deals which put untraceable crypto in people’s pockets (so much so we had to pause shipments so the DOD could assess inventory)-All while they await Trump’s new tariffs & how that will lock in new trade dependencies with
them which will prevent many other countries from doing much. So, perhaps in early 2026, when the weather is at its worst for us - but we can be sure they will take it.
Thanks for the long thread and now I do understand better the crazy thoughts around right now, thank you, but I keep to my original comment. Every market has its weakness and every country is dependent on its consumption so you are not fully right more than maybe in theory but not in practise