We are much more careful about statistics than our opponents so we find it hard to express in numbers the human impact. And we can't in fairness say "deaths caused" by cuts, rather "deaths not averted." Plans were made for lifesaving work which are now cancelled. A pledge not fulfilled. 3/n
The "deaths not averted" figurenow runs into the tens of millions. It's impossible to look at this maths without some kind of mental breakdown. Which is why these figures are useless for lobbying leaders like Keir Starmer, they will not look at them, I am sure. Nobody could own that decision. 4/n
I then looked at research on impacts on the donor country itself: loss of trust, loss of international support/soft power, and the domestic impacts of future conflicts and pandemics in terms of costs, addressing refugee movements and ill health. All well argued but too future facing for govts. 5/n
Finally, positively, I looked at plans that countries and regions are making to build their own post-aid financing for the social sector, like the new Africa Health Sovereignty Conference. Nobody expects aid to come back, and if it did it would take years to rebuild the broken delivery systems. 6/n
How countries build systems if they are spending more on debt service than health, education (as 20 countries in Africa) is a question, probably reliant on regional solidarity or yet more debt. Mutual insurance systems for natural disasters. In 10-15 a world without aid will feel normal. 7/n
Civil society will continue to have a role around inclusion of marginalised populations, accountability, and keeping alive the spirit of human rights. In humanitarian work there will probably still need to be some regional or international surge force as by its nature, crises overwhelm coping. 8/n
Where I find myself disagreeing, nervously, with powerful men, is how to support that change. I don't agree with David Miliband, Bill Gates, etc that what global north allies need to do is pick a few interventions "to go to scale". That's still the old way. I can't agree, small as I am. 9/n.
Local, national, and regional institutions are everything now. Supporting emerging institutions even if they are flawed. Finding networks to keep alive human rights, equalities. Looking at the cost of financing. But the era of scale interventions, good and life-saving as it was, is over. 10/10