I dont wanna be sanguine on this bc Trumps a v real threat to our democracy, but he will not be president as of 12:01pm, 1/20/29, so all "he's not gonna leave" commentary really needs to have an answer for that specifically. I will however say that the midterms are vitally impt to this specifically
The last time he didn't want to leave he tried to murder Congress. So the issue/fear isn't that he'll continue to act with authority as president and the country will just let him, it's what's he going to do to try avoid having to leave office.
We have only just barely begun to feel the economic consequences of his policies. It's going to be ugly in a few years.
Will there be fuckery? No doubt. But the legal and constitutional end time of Donald Trumps presidency is not up to him.
I think the point being made is that legal and constitutional terms are only the worth of the paper and ink if they're not enforced in some way. What is the guarantee that the actors at play in January 2029 will faithfully execute those laws.
Yeah this is the point - we're well past constitutional solutions, now.
If he was thirty years younger I’d be pretty worried. Not resigned , but worried. As it is, nobody should count on it but I’d bet on him sitting in a pile of his own shit over him sitting in the Oval Office in Feb. 2029.
My feeling is that the blue wave of the midterms will be so overwhelming that logistically trying to wish it away into the cornfield simply won't be feasible.
It's really about whether people roll over and let him. Let him run, let him fudge numbers or let the Senate certify him. Let him send in troops to enforce this, etc.
I mean sure, but thats a host of steps more than what a lot of ppl are saying which is "Trump just stays put" & in that scenario its like...ok how? I think what youre describing tho, as I noted elsewhere, is probs crack up territory bc whose gonna force D controlled states to put him on a ballot?
Yeah if he pushes this far enough we are in a state of war. Competing claims of legitimacy, etc. which is why it's very good and important that he is deeply unpopular because law is just words in a paper if people don't care.
*whispers* we're already in a state of war
Oh there is always the struggle for legitimacy and for putting pieces in place.
The Constitution is, at best, in abeyance, at worst, totally nuked and unable to be salvaged at all. Even under the best case scenario, you have an illegitimate federal government that possesses no true sovereignty; under dual federalism, that alone is an act of war.
The point isn't that there isn't a perpetual struggle for legitimacy - of course there is - it's that we're well past the point where nominal politics or constitutional solutions are even close to sufficient
People are going to get very squeamish with how much illiberalism will be necessary to get us out of this; I know I am
This is really the rub - whatever we want to think about what he will try or won't try or what SCOTUS won't or will bless the strategy is basically the same. Make him unpopular and get as much support as possible to make that hard or impossible
I think this debate happens so much on here because it impliedly involves whether we need to do stuff or so much stuff to stop it, and the answer is just we need to go full throttle in peaceful resistance, insulting him, state-level levers, etc. regardless so let's just focus on that
I fully expect him to try if he is alive/able even if it is clear he will face effective backlash. Guy makes this driven mistakes all the time.
I expect some form of fuckery, to be clear. I do not think, for a variety of reasons, a serious attempt will happen but what will largely ensure a serious attempt not happening will be the GOP not controlling congress or battleground states, so 🤞 for next year lol
Yeah this and I just need the military to look at his approvals and say to themselves, going down with him ain't gonna be good or fun; he doesn't have the juice, etc
Like I said elsewhere, what some people are saying without saying is "he'll launch a civil war to stay in power" and even in that situation you gotta explain how the entire military stays on board and itself doesnt immediately crack up into fighting itself over a brazenly illegal order.
If Roberts' court approves whatever the mechanism is, it will be a difficult for the military to disobey. And we know how his court calls the balls and strikes.
But what they do is also endogenous to public opinion. If he has 30 percent approval and there are people in the streets that's a very different world than 60 percent approval, for example.
Even there the guy vacillates between I'm gonna do stuff and musing about who will succeed him. I think it's more likely he wants to help rig the elections in favor of GOP forever because it will glorify him (lol)
They hacked this election and no one bothered to investigate. Why would the next election be different?
I’m organizing a poker game next week. Having read your analysis, I’d like to invite you to be the guest of honor.