avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

Prediction: a year from now, US computer science departments will find their enrollment at 50% of what they have been the past few years. I'm willing to bet a peppercorn on it for someone who really wants to hold me to it. (-:

jul 19, 2025, 8:49 pm • 43 2

Replies

avatar
noelwelsh.bsky.social @noelwelsh.bsky.social

I'm ready to take that bet but I think you are correct

image
jul 20, 2025, 9:14 am • 1 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

Wow, a peppercorn here, a peppercorn there, and pretty soon you're talking an Empire! (-:

jul 20, 2025, 11:36 am • 1 0 • view
avatar
boarders.bsky.social @boarders.bsky.social

I’m assuming there will be rebranding as CS + AI degrees

jul 19, 2025, 8:57 pm • 3 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

Yes, that makes formalizing the bet very hard.

jul 19, 2025, 11:06 pm • 2 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

PS: OBVIOUSLY there are lots of definitional questions here (eg, what does "enrollment" mean). Think of this more as vibe than prediction. But if you really insist we can try to drill down into a specific prediction that I will stand behind (but may be too narrow to please you).

jul 19, 2025, 8:53 pm • 3 0 • view
avatar
Sebastian Benthall @sbenthall.bsky.social

I just heard that ag school and vocational programs are going way up.

jul 20, 2025, 2:17 am • 1 0 • view
avatar
singletoned.bsky.social @singletoned.bsky.social

Worldwide or just in US?

jul 20, 2025, 7:05 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

"US computer science departments"

jul 20, 2025, 8:07 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
singletoned.bsky.social @singletoned.bsky.social

Why do you think just in the US?

jul 20, 2025, 8:22 pm • 0 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

Oh, now I understand your question. I don't know about the 200+ other countries. So the correct answer is neither: US yes, other countries no idea. (Sorry, too many replies.)

jul 21, 2025, 2:04 am • 0 0 • view
avatar
Pradeep Gowda @btbytes.com

CS departments (in reduced capacity) of non-elite CS programs will continue to exist because couple CS classes will be made mandatory credits for passing a STEM degree, and they will be as popular as machine class and drawing class - which were hosanna* for Mech and Civil depts. * read as ಹೊಸ ಅನ್ನ

jul 20, 2025, 11:51 am • 1 0 • view
avatar
Pradeep Gowda @btbytes.com

*predicting after the next 10 years... *(mostly wrong, i hope)

jul 20, 2025, 11:52 am • 1 0 • view
avatar
skeet shooting @saemg.bsky.social

between all the AI doomsaying and the attack on students from abroad it's not hard to imagine more

jul 19, 2025, 8:16 pm • 1 0 • view
avatar
Carlos Baquero @xmal.bsky.social

It might happen. But we know it is a perception mismatch. We have 280 places for the computer science course and 60 for the AI and Data Science course. Curious to look for changes in application numbers.

jul 20, 2025, 8:12 am • 2 1 • view
avatar
Thomas Dietterich @tdietterich.bsky.social

Cyber continues to be a growth area, and because AI exposes new attack surfaces, it will continue to be a great place for students to study and work

jul 19, 2025, 9:20 pm • 2 0 • view
avatar
Clément Canonne @ccanonne.github.io

What do you think the main reason would be? (There are two I can think of at least, one US-specific, that could have motivated this statement.)

jul 19, 2025, 8:52 pm • 2 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

Both of your reasons are valid. I don't have any special insights you don't, in the abstract. But I do have some data (that I can't discuss) from which I am *wildly* extrapolating, at least for the fun of it!

jul 19, 2025, 8:54 pm • 6 0 • view
avatar
Leftover woman @rosactrl.bsky.social

You know this prediction makes me feel better 😅

jul 20, 2025, 9:25 am • 1 0 • view
avatar
Srikumar @sriku.org

Is the basis for the prediction immigration issues and student safety? .. Or is it good ol' Al? Am more interested in the why than the prediction accuracy.

jul 20, 2025, 4:52 am • 1 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

All the reasons you can guess. (-:

jul 20, 2025, 11:35 am • 0 0 • view
avatar
Benoît Fleury @benfle.com

Do you have a prediction about where this drop will be transferred to?

jul 19, 2025, 9:20 pm • 2 0 • view
avatar
Shriram Krishnamurthi @shriram.bsky.social

Some of it may be because of visas/US apprehension, which means "other countries". Some may go towards applied math/stats for AI prep. Some may just revert to where people went for good-paying jobs, like econ/business/management…

jul 19, 2025, 11:07 pm • 2 0 • view