Did Trump really think China would cave? It’s a dictatorship they don’t care if their people suffer. The more I think about this tariff war with China the more I think this maybe his biggest mistake ever. Watching the US decouple economically from China has got to be making Taiwan anxious.
China doesn’t need us. People in China know how to be poor. Americans don’t. It’s a disaster.
We have millions and millions of poor Americans who "know how to be poor." The difference might be that the white middle class thought they were exempt and are finding out they're not; THEY might be group that picks up the pitchforks and start demanding their "right" to not be poor.
I can see how my words can be misunderstood. There are many poor ppl here too, but they know that have (or had) rights. What I meant is that in the communistic regime ppl don’t have any rights to disagree/ complain. The party says you will suffer because of the country’s pride, they suffer.
Folks can't complain in China...I hear you, but where has "complaining" (asking the govt for a bit of help against corporations, for ex) gotten poor Americans? This country has generational poverty for millions, plenty of complaints about it, and 0 change. In fact, inequality's increasing.
China isn't the only one. There's a strategy to this. It was Japan's dump that panicked Bessent and Lutnick. open.substack.com/pub/deanblun...
I follow an expert on China, not just on econ but society, traditions and culture. China today isn't a Maoist dictatorship the way it was under Mao's red guards. Xi has to consider public opinion and keep his people content. The Chinese were deeply insulted by JD Vance's remark.
Trump has no understanding of other countries' cultures. Trump is strongly disliked across the world because he is the archetypal “ugly American” - obnoxious, uncouth, boastful and duplicitous. He's also an uneducated and dangerous buffoon.
Who has Trump lifted out of poverty again, remind me.
I think he thought it would be an easy negotiation, yes. What he doesn’t realize is that China has most of the leverage here. All he’s managed to do so far is weaken the dollar, and if he doesn’t cut the bullshit, China will be in a position to make that even worse.
Not like they own a ton of our debt or anything.
China, Japan, Canada and the EU all hold a lot of Bonds and a slow bleed sell off is disastrous for the US
Did he ever hear of "saving face".
Maybe they should, to send a very clear message to the US.
So this time, China has all the cards. Karma!
Exactly what I was thinking.
A la @ruthbenghiat.bsky.social , possibly “national sabotage for the benefit of foreign autocrats”? After all, musk wants china happy, or am I wrong? It’s Russia trump wants to please.
There's a surging nationalism in China becuz of 🍊💩 trade & economic aggression. Do you think China will make a move during 🍊💩's stupid term to take over Taiwan?
He also ignores China’s high value on personal honor. A Chinese-American friend said China would sooner grind their economy to a halt rather than lose face to Mad Lord Yam. China has existed long before the US and they believe they will still exist long after.
open.substack.com/pub/deanblun...
While the dollar is impacted, the big killer will be when the Chinese dump bonds requiring the US to hike the bond return rate (because of the increase in the risk profile) and the federal deficit is driven up billions in interest payments to China, Japan, Saudi Arabia.
He really drank the Kool Aid that he was the most powerful man in the world and could leverage everything to make people bend the knee. He’s the laughing stock of the world and he lost the country’s status on Day One. All those tech bros already have deals with China directly. Just a fool.
I think part of the China standoff is to put Elon in his place - he was getting too much attention. The sycophantic cabinet meeting also diluted Elon’s power.
Wait until they cash in their treasury bonds.
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Foreign nations own $8.7T in U.S. debt (Japan $1T, China $759B, UK $723B). Mass sell-offs could spike interest rates, hurt mortgages, and stall construction
Canada used it as leverage so Donny wouldn’t add more tariffs.
They did well and simply stopped listening to his ridiculous
China has the bond leverage. Then add all those shipping containers that have tariffs due on them that are more than 140% more than the buyer has already paid will go unclaimed. Small business owners will fall and fail. Walmart isn’t going to pay another 145% either.
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I read that Canada may be considering the same although their leverage is less. In the same article, it suggested Carney traveled to the EU to bring some of the allies into the fold, a unified leverage defense against Trump.
I can’t see Canada cashing them in yet. Since yes it is leverage but we’re fifth in terms of owning.
All that cargo will be stuck in US Ports.
That's a great point. There's going to be a huge traffic jam soon.
They quietly added an “on the water” deferral. I think 27 April? Or so before the new rates are levied.
Target is pooched too.
Trim says the $6.9 trillion in treasuries held by the US in exchange for the Social Security surplus are fraudulent and is setting up the stage so that he can walk away from it and default on nearly $7 trillion in USA debt. Battle put the rest of the $28 trillion at risk.
I saw Chinese cancelled 90% of soybean contracts w US farmers and 50% (maybe? can’t remember exactly figure) of wheat contracts. That basically puts Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas ag production off line for a year. Imagine downstream impact on towns, schools, retail, taxes. Brutal.
Imagine ‘be' the measure official opts! #sixwords #vss
I wonder how many of these farmers voted for the 🍊💩 ? Here in Ky (my area) they voted for this. I have zero sympathy anymore, they brought this hell storm on everyone.
Maybe the farmers will finally get their heads out of their butts with all of this MAGA bullshit.
Somehow they will blame the Democrats.
They'll try and they are admittedly a very gullible bunch. But I genuinely believe it will be a tough sale.
I am totally cool with magical people suffering if they will finally get their heads out of their butts.
I thought disappearing the dollar is part of their plan to go full "crypto".
How bad is the damage to the US dollar?
i think trump is so used to getting his way: from not paying people he owes, to the courts, to legal cases, etc etc. he didn't realize that he can't bully EVERYbody. all of a sudden countries are fighting back. i don't think he thought that was possible. the dumb a**.
So Xi has the cards.
He doesn’t hold the cards. Almost instant karma, but I’m tired of suffering the consequences of his actions.
anyone want to bet how long before we're at war with China? #DictatorDonold needs a new distraction
He doesn't have the cards? China has the cards?
They literally and figuratively make the cards.
He's so detached from the American worker, he hasn't got the foggiest clue how working class Chinese live or their relationship with their government. They will own him on this. Not to mention the huge swath of U.S. small business owners he will destroy.
Another BRICS win
He’s a fcking twit
What about the +/- 100 patents Ivanka got in China? Is Trump trying to get out of repaying the $200,000,000 he borrowed from Bank of China?
China is playing the long game and tRump is playing tic-tac-to
Trump and the USA think China needs exports otherwise there will be unemployment but China has money and internally there are still many construction sites and tasks for solar expansion etc. However, the USA cannot replace deliveries from China
You think it's bad now, wait til China decides they can survive the pain (or its the lesser pain) and dump their t bills/bond holdings.
Yup. Over $700 billion. Better hope the US doesn’t piss off Japan. They hold a trillion.
Iirc Japan did liquidate some and that is what prompted the overnight (us time) bond panic that spurred Trump's word salad semi tariff retreat.
Yeah they did. But not the full trillion. The US would be insolvent.
Oh shit. I didn't even think of that🫣
Yea. I have thought too much about this crap. I think we end up with an alternative pay system that mostly replaces SWIFT, and the dollar is no longer the default world currency as Trump erodes 80 years of regulation that has kept things like the Fed independent and our banks safe.
Watching western empires rise and fall has been China's national pastime since the Han dynasty.
China, in the past, has had no issues with having millions of its people die. This is the 21st century, but history is history.
If not caring about your people suffering is the definition of a dictator...
Trump already caved by exempting smartphones and electronics. After Lutnick said that we were moving that manufacturing back to the US.
If we actually decouple from China monetarily, Taiwan won’t be the only big problem.