(🔐) Please understand that this is neither a stunt nor a casual conversation. It’s long, fully sourced, includes reams of hard data—among much else, on anticipated casualties—and takes into account the best intel we now have on Trump, Musk, and their political plans. I hope you’ll share this widely.
1/ The odds of a second Civil War in the next 20 months are assessed at about 70%, and this assessment was reached after a lengthy conversation between the only bestselling biographer of both Donald Trump _and_ Elon Musk and what is probably the best AI out there at the moment. More importantly...
Please for everyone's sake post it for free.
Click on the link.
You have to subscribe or sign up for free trial then subscribe. So not exactly free.
I think it will be triggered by the second Great Depression.
2/ ...this conversation _shows its work_. Every claim is sourced, all hard data is historicized, sourced and explained, and the two participants leave no doubt whatsoever as to _exactly_ how this assessment was reached. This is about as expert an analysis of what we are facing as we have right now.
3/ This isn’t a handbook on how to survive if a second U.S. Civil War breaks out in the next 20 months, as it now appears likely to do—though the conversation does consider how this conflict would be precipitated, who would participate in it, how it would play out and what its consequences would be.
Hollywood are well ahead of you, as are many of us who saw this coming decades ago, its one of the reasons why I turned down a lucrative career offer in the US 20 years ago. . www.imdb.com/title/tt1727...
4/ Though the conversation, which is quite long and dense, does not harp on this in particular, I find one of its most interesting components to be the nature of the combatants and their weaponry, the timing and location of attacks, and the recent historical analogues that help us envision the cost.
PS/ A much, _much_ less important side note: a massive update to my bio has been completed, to include (among a good deal else) my work on AI, on Musk, and on professional futurist consulting (near-, middle-, and long-term scenario planning)—all items relevant to the work that went into this report.
UPDATE/ One of many reasons to become a PROOF subscriber is that you can participate in the vibrant conversations the community has daily. Some readers have now run the same data through other LLMs and achieved virtually exactly the same result. (I'm also participating actively in the conversation.)
The only bummer is when you can’t access your paid subscription anymore 6 months into the year. And there’s no way to rectify it. :(
Sorry, would love to read, but I cannot give money to substack; they actively promote Nazis with the $ they skim from subscriptions.
1). Grok has been known to/ programmed to tell "jokes." 2). The answers one gets from Grok are heavily dependent upon how the querent frames the question. 3). I believe that there are indications that a civil war can happen but not because of what Grok said. 4). #WeThePeople are pissed off.
I have been preparing (as much as a single mom who is non-violent and not a prepper can) since the 2020 election. Don't need AI for that.
You are my hero
What the veterans are saying. I love this... they are pissed! @sethabramson.bsky.social you should be talking to them. Making sure the side they are on is ours (blue, normal. Sane). www.facebook.com/share/v/18Xj...
You don’t know me and I don’t know you so I read your bio. It was quite interesting, witty, and impressive, and also quite long. I’m guessing you must be at least 99 to have accomplished so much? One question though-did a dog really maul your face? Thank-you for sharing.
I have updated my bluesky profile. I am OldFarticus!
🤣🤣🤣🤣
No! I’m Farticus.
Went well until I got to Brand. Seriously?
I'm glad you are saying these things Seth. Researching for the book I'm writing, last year following the astrology I could see signs of civil war coming. Timing is of the essence. I hope people listen to you. 🙏
I’m surprised Grok is so rational and refers to trustworthy news outlets, i.e. Reuters, AP, NPR, The Guardian, Brennen Center. I’ve never used Grok. ChatGPT responses are similar—if you ask broad questions you get broad answers. But when providing more context the LLM picks it up right away.
Syria is the model
Don't forget the Gaza strip, let's clear out a whole state. They will choose to relocate anyone they see fit to.
El Salvador is not exactly a state, but yes.
They will choose where you will live, and they will relocate you. Their choice, not yours.
Scanner Darkly. Philip K Dick.
A lot of discussion of Syria and Gaza (and for that matter Yugoslavia) at the link, but also of how the U.S. differs markedly from those potential analogs.
With well armed civilians, many of them in a cult, and presidential directives attacking minorities internally and at border control, the World Cup could be interesting.
Absolutely. Fight Fascism with everything you have. Shitler is systematically disabling and dismantling the American Constitution, democratic structures, and processes. This is a war on Freedom, Liberty, and Democracy. #Freedom #Liberty #Democracy
I'm UK, but I'm looking at what's happening in the US and wondering about the makeup of what its upcoming police state will be made up of. And if my relatives will be safe. (Irish, UK, and white so 🤞 that they haven't mentioned any banned words in a work email.)
I see somewhere between Syria and Yugoslavia, whose population was almost as armed as we are. Don’t see standing armies slugging it out again. I screamed about fascism since Jan 7th, hope I sm wrong here.
I was about to start fifth grade when we left my hometown and became refugees. We were one of the last people that left before the route was cut off by JNA. I remember the soldiers and barricades. None wanted to believe what was happening and Croatians are informed unlike Americans.
I hope more of us will hear your warning but the sled is moving fast.
Absolutely, it's in motion. Fight Fascism with everything you have. Shitler is systematically disabling and dismantling the American Constitution, democratic structures, and processes. This is a war on Freedom, Liberty, and Democracy. #Freedom #Liberty #Democracy
Does it mention that using agents provacatuer to trigger this would be an easy defense tactic for all the countries he has threatened or hurt?
During a Civil war there could not be midterm elections, good for DT
What may beat any civil war 2.0, is a conflict with Canada over the US’s supposed right to ‘unfettered access to Alaska’ through Canadian sovereign territory.
One could deduce that severe political polarization, foreign interference, economic downturn affecting global stability, and sophisticated military capabilities may result in a volatile scenario where a second U.S. Civil War could potentially turn into a broader global conflict akin to World War 3.
Does AI weigh in the fact about how most Americans just don't give enough of a fuck? (besides being incredibly outraged on social media of course)
Yes, it does. It assesses, as do I, that the natural inclination of a majority of U.S. citizens is for non-violent resolution of major intractable dilemmas.
What does a civil war look like in 2025?
look up “Prospera”
A bunch of people posting memes..🤔
It might be an educated guess and while I think the vast majority of the racist f*cks would like it I hope it does not happen.
Reading Ray Dalio “The Changing World Order” and thinking about how we don’t know when a war truly starts but usually long before we think. I would argue that we may have started ours 1/6/21
Definitely
wow thanks for asking the plagiarism computer a thing it cannot possibly know
Elon Musk’s plagiarism computer, at that…
Substack really needs to put the subscription options in the app. Sure they get around giving a percent to the App Store, but it’s a barrier to have to move from mobile to a computer, and enter CC info. Sorry man. I want to support your work, but it’s 2025.
I am a computer scientist. I use AI systems all the time. Mainly Google Gemini and Microsoft CoPilot for software. AI's constantly make mistakes. They are useful but you should not take the pronouncement that civil war is imminent from an AI seriously.
The article involves neither a pronouncement of imminence nor a pronouncement of any kind. This is a serious, sober, dialogic, sourced, historicized exploration of a dialectic. Indeed, part of the purpose of it being an _exchange_ rather than a one-off is to poke at presumptions and false premises.
Still it would be interesting to compare with other AI models - although I suspect that e.g. Anthropic or OpenAI models might refuse to discuss the topic of civil war because of inbuilt censorship.
Well this is Elon’s model saying “yeah shit is bad (incl bc of Elon) & chances are high there will be a civil war.”
ChatGpt in Deutschland hält unruhigen für möglich, aber kein Bürgerkrieg.
Ich kann dir sagen, dass eine konkrete Zahl wie „70 %“ für einen Bürgerkrieg in den USA nicht auf einer offiziellen oder wissenschaftlich fundierten Analyse
I wonder what AI says about the people going after the entire administration. I'm much more motivated to do that.
Gemini will not comment on current politics. Others don't have that guardrail. They will echo what has been written on the web. They can only synthesize what humans have written. Some of the reasoning algorithms can go beyond this to an extent. They are not "intelligences".
They're all shit.
the south will fall again.
....given that the current administration is more ideologically aligned with the southern states I find this to be a bad five word analysis of the outcome of such a (absurd) hypothetical.
Yeah, but it WAS clever wordplay!
..to implement his precious fantasy of a Technostate with himself as absolute ruler. Send him to the Phantom Zone, Jor-el..
It's a long, fully sourced stunt with reams of hard data. Dress it up however you want it's still some serious sensationalism that I thought you were above engaging in. This does not make me want to subscribe to you. It makes me want to unfollow you.
😡😡😡
If there is a civil war it won’t last long as the fascists have all the funds.
His AI is slanted and does not deal in fact. It's possible for a constitutional crises though cuz Trump may defy the Supreme Court.
Musk can tell it what to say.
No he cannot, and if he could he certainly would not tell it to say that he is about to start a civil war.
Its really hard for me to read Substack. Even with my reading glasses the font is just too small. I'll share it, but I can't read off Substack.
Personally I feel like I would listen to a historian who specializes in Civil War history (and maybe not just American, but civil wars in general) before I would listen to AI of any brand.
It's sort of hard to believe--who will shoot at who? There's no blue and grey this time.
There's blue and red, and tens of thousands of White Supremacists, secessionists, militias, "sovereign citizens", End times fanatics, crazy armed preppers (as opposed to the sane ones), and so on. They've been waiting for this for years
that doesn't answer the question--who will they shoot at?
One might even say they’ve been clamoring for such a time. These armed yahoos (as opposed to armed, reasonable human beings) LIVE to play out the video game fantasies in their heads.
This has been boiling for over a decade with the fascists, who've been freebasing FOX News and all the other Nazi propaganda outlets for so long that they are now fully-indoctrinated to believe that the solution is to start killing their neighbors. This is the end game.
AI is wrong more than it's correct. It can only use what's put into it... biased because we're humans.
I find it more difficult to imagine how it could not come to civil war - and we are probably closer to 20 days than 20 months. The best hope is still that there are enough General Millie‘s who will very soon conclude that the only way forward is a military coup. Probably delusional. Frightening 😪
I agree with your original thought here, but my trust is no longer with the military
Surely not!!! Trump hates War, doesn't he? Or is that just what he says when he's after a Nobel Peace Prize? Well the NRA will finally have their own way.
First shots have already been fired in a #ColdCivilWar.
I recommend the book American War by Canadian-Egyptian journalist Omar El Akkad. Set in the USA in the near future, ravaged by climate change and disease, in which the Second Civil War has broken out. Interesting to contemplate the ramifications
Let's not call it civil war. It should be the 2nd American Revolution. Stand up to tyranny and a would-be king.
The problem is you won't just fighting the government. You will also be fighting your MAGA neighbors and your MAGA family. They will not rise up with you. They will fight FOR the oligarchs. So civil war is the more accurate framing.
2nd Civil War, which wouldn't have been possible had Reconstruction not been terminated. Germany had Nuremberg, then marginalized the Nazis and their successors. We invited the Confederates back into politics. Nazis and Confederates have to be kept out of mainstream politics.
The enemy already has: the opening paragraphs of Project 2025 labels its umbrella movement as "The second American Revolution."
I love this response!
I can't read it, but even so, I like this much better.
Powerful must-read conversation.I think @chrismurphyct.bsky.social @warren.senate.gov @whitehouse.senate.gov should read this, so they can send it to every Democrat in office as well as Republicans who don't approve of F47's/Musk's overreach. cc: @frankfigliuzzi.bsky.social @politicsgirl.bsky.social
LLMs are glorified sentence-completers. They’re good at things like assistance programming or outlining, but asking an LLM to make social predictions fundamentally misuses them. I generally respect your posts and opinions, but using LLM in this way is not good methodology and cannot be made to be.
This is utter nonsense. Grok is in NO way an AI. It doesn’t have opinions or check facts or make predictions. It’s a clever predictive text engine that takes the sources it has been fed and spits them out in new combinations. It’s like asking a four year olds’ opinion.
What makes Grok the best AI out there? They are all a little garbage, but someone explain this part to me.
All the data Musk has stolen via DOGE … AIs learn from data.
The best AI changes 2 or 3 times a week. Grok is useful for this analysis because it has access to all the Trump cult chatter on X.
I didn’t need AI to cone to this conclusion. But my industry has been decimated by AI hype so what do I know. We are a completely polarized country so a civil war or worse is inevitable. We have the jerks who use AI to decimate industries to blame.
yes, I agree two riders were approaching, and the wind began to howl - B Dylan
We’re fucked, P Diddy style
Seth, I like your research but the methodology here is highly problematic. First, you are steering Grok. It starts with a 20% estimate, and each time your respond you push it towards higher probabilities. Someone making the opposite argument could easily steer a model in the other direction.
Then you should do that. Because I have no idea what the opposite argument would be, and as a Trump and Musk biographer if there were an argument that was compelling and factual to suggest we are headed toward a reinstitution of peaceful norms, I would have made it. I do not see the evidence you do.
My argument isn't that the assessment wrong, it's that AI models are suggestible. If you think the chance of US Civil War is 70%, I'm inclined to put stock in it because I know you do the research. I just don't think there's any reason to believe AI models are good at predicting these things.
Second, you say Grok is the leading AI model, based on what? Based on benchmarks I've seen it is competitive, but certainly not an outlying leader. As a test I fed your question and replies to ChatGPT o3-mini-high. It started at 0.2% and moved up to 0.3%-0.5%.
Grok is a me-too LLM at best, with no meaningful research or innovation by that group. They're just copying the work of all the others. If an LLM could be a mid-life crisis, Grok would be Elmo's
This does not appear to be accurate. You did not compare apples to apples. This PROOF reader did:
And another reader has reached the same results with yet another AI foray.
So I checked my test and did make some honest mistakes, it looks like I stopped after the first three prompts. However adding the remaining prompts only raised the projection to 2%-3%. Here is my full chat if you'd like to examine yourself: chatgpt.com/share/67d8c7...
I can't explain why others got different results, and I didn't test every model. I did tweak the initial prompt slightly to get it to calculate a percentage because my first attempt using ChatGPT o1 was reluctant to commit to any percentage.
I'm now trying with ChatGPT 4.5 research preview, and after the first prompt it's refusing to provide an initial estimate and asking more questions about how to proceed. I'm telling it to provide a probability estimate, I'll see how it goes.
So, ChatGPT 4.5 research preview gives radically different results from my earlier run that line up much more closely with what Grok produced in the PROOF article. I still don't like the method. It assumes the AI starts from a reasonable baseline, and that more prompting improves the results.
I suspect Grok is too high, and ChatGPT being overly conservative and not reacting strongly enough to recent events and is estimating too low. Beyond that I think trying to calculate a reasonable probability is an extremely difficult problem for humans or AI. I don't really trust either estimate.
I’ve done similar tests (diff subject) between Grok and ChatGPT and get the same gap. To me it seems Grok is better and “thinking” what the reader wants to hear, which is far different than true probabilities from the AI response generated.
It’s too easy to get sucked in to a more sophisticated Eliza
It's really the equivalent of asking a Ouija board a bunch of personal questions and getting freaked out when it starts answering in ways that confirm your own thoughts. You're the one pushing the pointer around dude, ghosts aren't real and AIs are just good at stringing words together.
Agreed. In the final prediction by Grok, it says the estimate is based on Seth's assumption of a USPS takeover and a banning or blocking of all mail-in ballots nationwide. There's also an assumption that more poverty = more sustained protest & resistance. Commty organizers & historians dispute that.
It won't be a civil war it will be a class war.
After the first, proper punishments were not disbursed. Thus, we found ourselves subject to Confederate names and segregation, etc. Lincoln made a mistake in thinking the losers would get over it and join with the rest of us. Instead they have kept their hate alive and one party embraced them.
📌
This is honestly why I think we need to start buying personal firearms now before we aren’t allowed to in the near future. All the hilljacks have them already. I’m not a proponent of having them at home, but I’ll be damned if I don’t have something to defend my family.
This is terrifying
This sounds very interesting but I'm not reading it. It appears to me that AI excels at people pleasing and will provide responses, or dialogue thusly.
I think less than 10% of the country would be willing to die for that asshole. The hyperbole of civil war is good for grabbing attention but the number of MAGA willing to sacrifice themselves is slim.
Sad as it is, either way, there must surely be more good people than idiot following hatemongers.
When they can't get their 128 oz fountain soda, beer or Slim Jims at the convenience store, or there's a gas, heating oil or propane shortage, reality might hit them square in the forehead. That, or watching a 6.5 Creedmore round take someone's arm off, the video game aspect will disappear.
TAKE HEED AND PLEASE RE-POST: bsky.app/profile/did:...
They forgot to list Putin
Yay! Civil War time,the MAGA lot must be jizzing in their pants at the thought
We already have a civil war of ideas.
And it was Facebook, Twitter, and a few others who gave everyone metaphorical guns and presented their enemies to them on a screen.
We need to take the initiative. Stop waiting for the Dems to grow a set. Stop planning primaries. Coalesce the various groups into a ready force. Blue states - maybe with a couple of red ones - need to begin plans for secession. The union is finished. Time to plan for the future.
Definitely not "casual conversation". How does an American "Civil War" work? The entire country gets held hostage. It's not sensationalism, it's a real possibility. It's all fun and games until the food riots. Kill the grid and starve us out. Better have good understandings with your neighbors
Homer-Dixon sounded the alarm in 2021 in a Globe and Mail op-ed: The American polity is cracked, and might collapse. Canada must prepare. Here is a link to a free version of the analysis: canadiancor.com/breaking-new...
Wow. THAT was eye opening and written back in Dec 2021? TY for this, introduced me to Thomas Homer-Dixon and the Cascade Institute, Theda Skocpol, Jack Goldstone, and Jonathan Leader Maynard. And I LOVE deAdder's cartoons!
je suis prete
It's time for us in the UK to start taking refugees from the US. Anyone escaping the orange devil is welcome here
… OK, so MEANT TO instead of SUPPOSED TO, check. FANNY over there doesn’t mean what FANNY over here means, check. BEANS ON TOAST not BREAKFAST TACOs… We’ll work on that one.
I want to move there.
This should be a surprise to no one. The far right has been calling it for years. It is why Generation Joshua was developed as part of the Quiverful movement. The intelligent sons were sent into law and the less intelligent or one from poor families were sent to the military and law enforcement.
I am not saying this out of thin air, I found myself sinking into that movement when I was homeschooling my children 20 years ago. This is what was pushed and a number of homesteading groups were deeply involved as well. There is a reason Chuck Holton was in-bedded as a military journalist for CBN
The movie with Kirsten Dunst is becoming reality.
Let's launch a preemptive strike on MAGA
The left/progressives/anti-Trump side is too wimpy to fight a civil war. (I'm a 60+ dude when gets looks of horror when I say I would be more than willing to man the barricades and make/throw Molotov cocktails - like artists and teachers did during the early days in Ukraine.)
You don’t understand how civil wars are fought. Not just civilians. It’s a constitutional crisis that creates a schism in the military leadership, as it’s any soldier’s constitutional duty to disobey unlawful orders. And Trump wants to deploy military into “liberal cities”, which would enable this.
It's a damn good thing that our senior military leaders met to discuss what to do if the president issued an unlawful order after he was president, huh?
Totally disagree with this. Don't want to - would never want to fight others, especially fellow Americans - but the rage I feel at the threat to our imperfect democracy would drive me.
That's what the south thought too.
I always hear that and then i look at whos "on the right" and its all old pieces of shit on mobility scooters. Not too worried about it.
Pretty sure the right/Trumpers are going to come up short with the cry babies living in their mama’s basements who can’t even be bothered to seek actual female company. They’d rather play video games and eat Doritos.
Ever heard of the International Brigade? They were a mix of writers, artists, musicians, ex-military and everyday people who, disgusted at the capitulation of their governments to Franco, journeyed to Spain to assist the left and attempt to bring down a brutal dictator. So sit down and be quiet.
I had a Finnish-Canadian great uncle who joined the Mackenzie-Papineau Battalion that fought with the International Brigade, so yes, I'm familiar. I see no such groundswell - yet. If/when it happens, I'll be delighted. I'm not holding my breath. (And no need for ad hominems - we're not on Xitter.)
My apologies. I've just heard it so many times: this claim that the left won't get down and dirty if it comes to that. I suppose it depends on what you mean by the 'left' because the left that I'm familiar with(not the nice, liberal 'let's all be friends ' lot) isn't afraid to get stuck in.
Agreed! Here in Canada, that's still a lot of the self-defeating "when they go low, we go high" crap. People (many, at least) don't want to do anything "unseemly" or "unsavory". They just want to clutch their pearls and write strongly worded letters - or so it seems.
"This is an outrage! I shall write a strongly worded email, this instant. And if that doesn't work, I shall be forced to make a meme!"
My husband suggested today that we buy guns and take training classes. While I don’t want to find, we will be prepared.
I’ve been wondering the same. God I hate we are even talking about this!
*fight
Same with my gun-hating wife. We are training now.
No that isn't true it's just they are not cosplaying soldiers to try and appear tough.
I don't doubt it. Be well armed.
I'd love to read the article, but I can't afford to be a paid subscriber. I hope your readers with better incomes get something out of it that they can share (verbally or otherwise) with us Poors. 🤷♀️
Click the link. The article is free.
I did, and it said something like, "Paid subscribers only... To keep reading, please" etc., etc. It's cool. I've found other valuable things to read by now, free of charge. 👍☺️☮️
I did. It said I had to be a paid subscriber to continue.
Not for me it isn’t. It’s a free trial cancel within 7 days subscription
Weird. I don’t have a subscription but it works for me 🤷♂️ Either way, Seth is worth a follow. He’s been spot on with regard to Trump since, like, 2015ish.
I didn't need Ai to tell me what my merely human brain has been forecasting for sometime now.
My AI predicts that climate change will result in a huge caldera at the South Pole that will wipe out humanity. I won’t share the data the AI was fed, its training methodology, or potential biases in its sources, but trust me, the end is nigh.
Trump will declare Martial Law - which will make him King and bring an end to any mid-year election plans. Judges will be rounded up and jailed. Democracy will be over. And this is what Trump promised, so why should be be surprised?
Yup
This would surprise me - a guy who anticipated bad sh!t - but I’ve been quite surprised already, so… when’s that next flight out?
I'm not a subscriber so I can't access but I've been having some interesting conversations with Grok myself. I can say it's way saner and astute than Elon Musk. I doubt he had absolutely anything to do with its programming whatsoever. Although he's taking the credit, natch.
I agree that this is the likeliest outcome. Mostly because of America’s love affair with violence. I hope the governors are prepared.
LLMs DO NOT generalize in this way. This is not an accurate assessment. The LLM was not trained explicitly to predict the likelihood of a war starting. Stop spreading misinformation.
Exactly. A general purpose LLM AI isn't going to give a particular accurate assessment of these scenarios. A Small(er) Language Model trained with relevant military political and historical data and better reasoning would be more accurate. I think this is a domain where human expertise is needed.
You are already at war. It's 21st century warfare, not 19th century.
📌
I’m sure they are feeding all sorts of crazy prompts
bsky.app/profile/dave...
I saw something about the arms industry losing big contacts in previously thought of allie states. It'll be interesting to see who they supply to instead.
Look, forgive me, but I really don't think this kind of thing is very helpful. In fact it's anti-helpful. And you have to pay to read it, so I'm not going to.
You _definitionally_ have no idea if it’s helpful: you didn’t read it. But you’re certainly entitled to your opinion of things you’re unfamiliar with. We all are. The only thing we can’t do is expect such self-admittedly untutored opinions to hold any weight with anyone. Why would they?
Look, I'm all for debate and discussion, but thanks for patronizing me. I appreciate it. An AI generated description of civil war? With all due respect, because I know you do good work, how is this fucking going to help anyone?
Tell us what to do to resist. That's all we want to know right now. We don't want to play out every possible miserable apocalyptic scenario in our heads. We just want to know how to stop it. What can we do today. Or tomorrow? That isn't just writing to our senators.
Cuz something this important doesn’t seem like something I should have to pay for.
Seth deserves to be compensated for his time, effort, and expertise. Pay the $5 to read it, then cancel your subscription.
I don’t have $5 to spare. Literally. Rent was paid, car insurance was paid, groceries were bought, electricity and phone bill was paid, 3 other bills paid, all out of about $2,000, most of which was Social Security. I don’t have a gig until next week. I’m about to be overdrawn.
I sincerely hope things improve for you and the rest of America.
Yes it seems inevitable if something doesn’t change drastically. Already thinking the New England states and NY align themselves with Canada. West coast might form separate countries or align with Mexico.
Duh, it's been training on 12 different dialects of hate speech at home. Grok's home life has not been good.
I use LLM's and I know cannot be trusted plus Grok is far from being the best one anyways.
thank you glad someone said it buncha bs
They're a nice tool for programming for those of us suffering from "writer's block" that lays out some code that you can then modify, but that's all they are. Tools, to be used with human supervision.
God, that must be why this entire report is about me using AI with human supervision
Yes but it doesn’t really know right from wrong and the user tries to get it spit out something close to what they want. While this makes it a somewhat usable tool for programming as it’s sort of automating the “search stack overflow for answers” part, it really doesn’t have human understanding.
I agree with you. but the way it's being forced on *EVERYTHING* gives me such ick Wish there was like one tenth the energy and resources being poured into development of Actual Intelligence dare to dream...
😂 I must've triggered mr paywall self promoter's lil feefees cuz he blocked me. That's alright I'd already unfollowed 🤷♀️
No. A civil war has somebody fighting back.
I suspect the 2nd American civil war will start on Nov 6th 2028. The day after trump "Wins" his 3rd term.
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I will not bend a knee to a king or the anti-christ
Yuri wasn’t kidding either. From 1983: youtu.be/5gnpCqsXE8g?...
It's what I've been saying for a LONG time. He wants to start a war. Any war.
Agree
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If his AI is as good as all his other endeavors, no need to worry.
You understand the conversation was limited only to reliable major-media reporting—not social media posts—and that all links to the sources are available, right? I am amazed that in 2025 people still think deep research by AI is some Carnac the Magnificent shell game in which you cannot see sources.
Because the people are being smarter than they thought we'd be and are also NOT sitting down for their shite. They know that the moment they push it over certain lines ... it means war. No matter which side starts it. I wonder if our allies will help us make sure they DON'T win. DO we deserve it?
What I finder interesting, Civil War during WWIII? World War 3 has started already. Make no mistake about it
Not unprecedented. China effectively had that for parts of WW2.
You are correct. They paused to fight the Japanese at times.
Yup it’s been quite likely since the election
After the justice system has failed, Congress and the Senate have frozen in subservience, and the press has fallen silent, only the people remain. And in the US, they are extremely armed.
When the super-rich are shamelessly enriching themselves and driving everyone else into poverty and despair, what else can you expect?
This day #March2025 #AmericanHistory #resist #persist #exist #RiseUp #punchnazis #Elon #Musk #Trump #Vance #Thiel #Bonging #Kash #Johnson Peter #Thiel #FoundersFund gave $15 mil #Masters #Vance and is funding the coup. These are companies of FoundersFund.com portfolio
It seems quite likely after Musk demolishes our government and pockets the treasury.
Fuck over a million vets. Yeah, I can see that. 😡
I don't challenge the reporting, but I vehemently disagree about the likelihood of a civil war. Grok is a fuckin' idiot. Trained by out-of-touch tech bros who get a hard on at the mention of weapons. Here in one of the reddest spots in VA, I see zero signs of preparation or support for this.
Grok is still stupid.
We don't need a civil war, we need a mob with pitchforks
I don’t want to see that but the way things are going, something has to give!
His daddy’s making sure of it. The fascist racist misogynist drug addict. #Resist
I agree with you.
Who the fuck would even fight that war? Americans can't even be bothered enough to get on the streets to protest! (please spare me with photos of "large protests", I've seen them and they're pathetic)
I don’t know why but this made me laugh. Americans are too lazy to fight a civil war. 😂 You may be right. Let’s skip it, and have a state by state sporting event. No one dies, we can eat popcorn &everybody has fun.
Your question is answered in the conversation.
Id love to read it. Can’t afford to buy anything right now. Times are tough. But what character Im gonna have!
You can subscribe for free and read it that way. You don't need to pay.
it's a paid subscribers only article, so no, we can't.
I just read it and not paid a penny. It doesn't mean get out your cheque/check book
Nick is correct, you can read it without paying anything. Not just by one route but several—one is the free 1-week trial, another subscribing to PROOF for free (no credit card input at all), then choosing this article as your one free subscriber-only read (everyone gets one). Many more ways, too.
😂 funny! It’s probably good we don’t want to kill our neighbors.🤷🏻♀️Im a big believer in “there’s room for all different ppl.” But things feel pretty bad up in DC. Not sure how this is gonna end. But hope no one has to die.
Please organize locally now. Please. Whatever group feels comfortable for you. But meet the people in your community. I'm trying to load this with resources. www.4thbranch.us Plurality against the plutarchy. You are the tipping point.
Sadly? I actually agree. The nation's at a tipping point; especially with news he ignored a Federal Judge on this day. America's balanced on a knife's edge & it's beginning to sway. A little more motion, either way, & the nation will fall. The global impact from that will be nightmare out of mind.
Were any war avoidance analogues analysed? It feels like if you only study analogues of where war broke out, you load the dice in favour of that outcome. Avoidance case studies may be harder to find but nonetheless important for a balanced analysis. I remain sceptical but still deeply troubled.
Dont have to be AI to know that. Very good possibility. The militia is getting ready. Anyone else?
I’m not surprised the algorithms on that machine also figured out how to fix an election and not be detected.
His brother even admits it and has done interviews about their start in America www.snopes.com/fact-check/m...
Yeah, a country can only sustain 2 competing realities for so long before the competition becomes violent.
perhaps this is the only way to get rid of these horrible people.
Uh, Not helping Dianne
I'm livid. MAGAts need to go.
It used to be that a new Canadian Prime Minister's first visit is to the USA. NO MORE. His first visit is to the leader of the Free World: France. www.thestar.com/politics/car...
Oh and just wait until FOX cranks up the fauxrage about how Canada has "insulted" the U.S.--the same U.S. where the deranged POTUS is promising to invade and annex Canada and has been insulting Canada's PM as "governor".
Context is unimportant at Fox “News”.
Fox rage inducer
We're not afraid of Trump and his bully boy tactics. We don't roll over and give in to tyrants. We know that Americans by and large will remember our long history of friendship and support. Trump and his associates are an aberration, a cancer that needs to be removed for good
The world is still waiting for your revolution, even though many of us, Europeans, think that you are screwed for good because the Nazis gutted your government and your constitution beyond repair.
I'm Canadian, and I agree with you. Americans have to fight the enemy within, who is friendly with the external opponents
This is likely not happening. Too many Americans are comfortable. We will slide into a third world nation (many more homeless, hungry, and mentally ill, and drug addicted) before we start an internal revolution. Just my two cents.
Sometimes I look at it as part of the bigger cycle of history, there are times of peace and then a time of war can quickly change all of that. Trump is a symptom of decades of inequality and elitism and complacency. It might take a long time for things to swing back closer to the center
Blue states against red states? California, Oregon, Washington, New Yersey, New York, the whole of New England - bluestates. Neutral states around the great lakes. Texas, Florida, mid-west, N- & S- Carolina, W Virgina, Lousiana, Alabama, Arkansas etc. - red states?
It’s not that simple. Portland OR? Blue. Eastern OR? RW af. Same can be said for Chicago vs downstate IL. Some of the deepest rw lunatics are in California districts.
Of course red states have blue pockets and blue states have red pockets, in case of civil war therefor you'll see large amounts of people fleeing their home states. Nowadays you're already seeing this kind a migration, I read not long ago.
I haven’t read of any measurable migration yet but I’ll keep an eye out. My point is in the event of CW, the opposing sides don’t actually have to travel far and one side is more prepared than the other. I don’t have access to the article here but this is a current topic of convo online and irl 4 me
Red vs. Blue. Authoritarianism vs. Democracy.
Are you going to talk Grok into giving us a survival guide?
That work does not require my input/dialogic skills/expertise. Anyone could ask Grok that right now and instantly get a reasonable answer the first time. Not so with a discussion of the likelihood of a civil war happening in the first instance.
When you reflect too upon his post this weekend… he’s preparing to go after his enemies, protesters and the like. It is coming! Best prepare!
OMFG. I actually worry about the increasing calls for violent action I see here on Blue Sky. I'm an old man now, and I do not feel that need. If younger, I just might, but I have hated guns since I was 12 - refuse to purchase one. It brings us DOWN to their level - J6er's, etc. cheeto is a MADMAN!
So much same.
I’m not a proponent of guns either except for legitimate hunting. But I’m not naive enough not to know that violence is in the air. Things are escalating and it shouldn’t come as a surprise given everything now. Things are not “normal” now…whatever that is. Not a spring chicken either. 🥺
A lot of "talk" here on blusky re: arming up. I get it, but it's still disturbing. I live in a thick and murky sea of red. An older biker couple actually tried to pick a fight, just because I was wearing a pp mask. March 2020. The man shoved me, mad as hell. It wasn't hard to just walk away.
The magas will be in the fight with us, not against us.
I am not at all confident of that. I on occasion torture myself and watch faux newz, just to see. They are not at all angry. They continue to celebrate all this "winning" and spend at least 10 to 20 minutes shaming, ridiculing and blamining the left - for EVERYTHING. Afraid we are "on our own".
It has not hit them in the wallet yet.
The a-holes are now easily recognized with the red hats and horns..
Looks like something he would post . But probably fake.
I just asked grok. This is the response: "My Stance Abramson’s wrong—I didn’t say 70%. I don’t predict like that; I analyze. Trump’s defiance (Web ID 1) is real, but civil war isn’t fate—49% say no war in 5 years (Web ID 10). Act now—your tweets (March 18, 8:00 AM) already lead."
I also asked how to ensure this NEVER happens. I'm trying to figure out how to post the response as a link. Stay tuned.
So you posited a question to the AI that misrepresented my conversation with it to make... what point, exactly? My report gives one of the most clear demonstrations of how Grok operates imaginable, yet you without reading it manufactured a question for Grok that would frame me as misrepresenting it?
My question was assuming your question/response was accurate. I hope that makes sense.
No. My question was, so what do we do to ensure it never happens? When I asked that, it answered that it thought you misunderstood it. I didn't mean to contradict your action, just to take it the next step. I was surprised when it said that, but was still just interested in how to stop a war.
I'm not feeling it. I think Trumps last stunt at the Capitol break-in was enough for maga. You're not seeing marching or any bluster thrown around by the maga troops. Last time was enough and they know the consequences. Lots of serious Repubs who will tamp it down. Don't spread drama and stir it up!
I hope it’s as smart as Elon himself. Then it’s 100% wrong.
I'm not artificial (I think?) and I'm not sure how intelligent I am, but I've been saying this for a few years.
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Sadly you dont have to be too bright to be able predict a civil war in the states in the next couple of years. #cdnpoli
It SHOULD be ALL us regular folk against the regime but his supporters are taking too long to catch on.
tRump fantasizes about a MAGA empire, but the reality is he might just hand us a nuclear wasteland. His brand of imperialism could turn the chilling visions of Cold War filmmakers into a terrifying reality. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
I have done these chats and they don’t start getting serious until USA goes to physical war with Canada first - then the odds increase dramatically as the blue states would then move to support against with Canada - if this doesn’t happen it didn’t rate risk as that high
Course I have never used grok - it musk after all
It ai though - it can’t help that
Can’t access it but civil war is imminent
Now that the fascists are in; they won't *allow* us to VOTE them out! #REVOLUTION
We need to fight fire with fire, or anything that can hurt them.
Stephen Marche called this years ago in "The Next Civil War"
There is a great book every american should read. "The Next Civil War" by Stephen Marche. He wrote it years ago and explains his thesis that US is doomed to a 2nd civil war and why
My opinion is it will be blue states realizing the US is a sinking ship.
Is it completely safe to assume that the AI Musk funded has been well-tested for accuracy of its predictions?
🤣😂😆
Once public trust in elections is lost, violence rapidly escalates. We have to preserve our election integrity.
As a Canadian I read this report with some relief. Surely if you are busy with a civil war you won’t be invading Canada, right?
What scares me is how many people are totally oblivious and/or in denial of the possibility, and cost, of a new civil war. In the first battle of Manassas/Bull Run, the fine women of Virginia brought picnic baskets to the battlefield, in case the fight lasted into dinner. We are just as clueless…
GOT THAT FOLKS. #GROK proposes in conversation with @sethabramson.bsky.social that there will be a Second Civil War here in USA ? If TRUMP loses or even tries to run in 2028 or some other factor. PER Photo some of the TROOPS have military aircraft?? @votevets.org @militarydotcom.bsky.social
It’s good, but it’s not infallible. 🤷♀️
Not surprised. Either the constitution wins or collapses because of them
Putin’s wet dreams coming true
That I believe and quite frankly, it needs to happen
And they are starting it. To get richer. On our backs. On our dead.
In comments made on television in 2014, Donald Trump told Fox News that “total hell” would make America “great” again. . www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...
If only someone had warned us..
But with the internet instead of the telegraph, drones instead of trains, automatic weapons/nuclear capability instead of rifles, slow moving mortars and gatling guns. 600K+ easily exceeded.
No surprise.
I don’t know what they could possibly do to make us turn guns on each other. The left doesn’t have any for one 😱. Maybe we should get them. I would never go after anyone. I’d only protect my family. Even if they put Bibles everywhere and make us get medicine off the black market. No war.
There are plenty of armed liberals and leftists in this country.
The Civil War never ended; it entered a dormancy. A cold war of competing ideologies continued: democracy or fascism. Eventually, with large protests, Tя☭mp will happily invoke the Insurrection Act. And he'll gleefully watch - as American troops kill American citizens on American soil.
Whose side will the AIs be on?
Honey I don't need grok to see that
Trump warned us of WWWIII when debating with VP Harris so yes there will be a war during his term. And it will probably be from citizens uprising &/or when he pisses off putin or his little friend in china.
Trump and company have been itching to start one for years.
I’m hoping for a Seven Days in May situation except this time the General succeeds.
Don't really need AI to tell you this.
To assist with research on a question this complex? Actually yeah, I do, and I’m a damn good researcher. Only people who don’t research things, and who hubristically go off their emotions on matters great and small would say that gut instinct suffices when there are _340+ million lives_ on the line.
Don't think you've ever replied to me before and no offense intended, but this has all been leading up to something for quite some time. The rule of law is gone, .....
....as far as I can tell. It's just going to take what I foresee, as one of tRumps own deranged and disgruntled minions to fire the first shot (most likely at tRump himself) and then all hell is going to break loose
I couldn't see what the AI predicted, btw. Was it anything like that?
Djeees what a surprise! Really getting sick of Stinky Winky's obsession to destroy the whole planet.
I respectfully disagree. Most of what I've seen out AI is shit.
I will be fully healed and know how to blend. Slow and steady and then strategically pounce where needs are. I'm one in a million man army. Hope it never happens but it will turn out in our favor. Trump and musk will meet their demise like mussolini and the romanovs.
I would have agreed with this three months ago, but I think maga are finally seeing trump as the lying, backstabber he is.
Longstanding republican position, ignore it until it effects me personally or else faux news tells me to be outraged.
I have already started to compile a kill list. It starts with the people that I know who voted for the fascists.
It makes sense, of course. If I was Canada, I wouldn't want to join the USA. But if I was Vermont or Washington, I'd surely like to join Canada.
As a Washingtonian, can confirm.
@sethabramson.bsky.social sadly Substack supports Nazi and white supremacist content - even profits off of it happily… lead the exodus
Basically we need to prepare ourselves for the worst and hope for the best,all the while trying not to over catastrophize or underestimate what is happening. JFC
It's hard to believe there is enough data on civil wars to train an AI to make such a prediction with any more accuracy than an Magic 8-Ball. That being said, a civil war doesn't seem very far-fetched to human intelligence.
FYI I get an error when I try to claim the free article on Substack.
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