11. Still Trump isn’t really pushing too much on the Palestinian issue and is giving the Israelis free rein in the West Bank while pushing a Gaza plan that displaces millions of Palestinians. It’s the near exact opposite of where Democrats have been.
12. But this dichotomy isn’t going to hold. If Israel doesn’t reverse course there is a good chance that Trump starts breaking with Israel on the Palestinians and democrats break with Israel on security.
13. Trump is going to hear from the Gulf states they’d love to do more with Israel, but the Palestinian issue is a headache & stands in the way. as he focuses on regional deals and a future based on AI and major financial investments, Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian will just be an irritant.
14. Trump will either just press Israel to deal with it. Or he and the Gulf states will just move on without Israel. After all, the real money is in the U.S. and the Gulf. It’s great to involve Israel but not absolutely necessary if it’s too much of a headache
15. Meanwhile, Democrats aren’t going to continue to support unlimited security cooperation as Israel moves away from them on the Palestinians. 18 senators already voting to withhold certain weapons & Biden withholding the 2000 pound bombs. On the current trajectory this fissure will only grow.
16. Ultimately, Israel will find itself neither special in Republican or Democratic eyes. The U.S.-Israel alliance will become a shell of its former self.
17. There is a way out for Israel with both Dems and Republicans. End the war in Gaza, get the hostages out, and get aid, pursue an Arab supported post conflict plan that becomes the first step towards normalization and an eventual Palestinian state.
18. Democrats and republicans will both embrace this vision. For Trump Israel is no longer a headache but instead part of the regional deals and integration he is looking for and a pathway for a Nobel peace prize.
19. For Democrats regional integration and a Palestinian state removes the biggest barrier they face in their relationship with Israel.
20. Unfortunately, Netanyahu Smotrich and Ben Gvir will never do any of this. But the next Israeli government over the next year and a half must begin this process. The alternative will be the end of the special relationship as we know it. Maybe not immediately but centrally over time.
Normal Dem-voting American here. I used to be reflexively supportive of Israel, but no more and likely never again. This must be how the rest of the world feels about the US. Once you damage that friendship, it is gone.
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