This is absolute nonsense. First of all, VCs don't do survey-based statistical sampling on this scale, where the error is somewhat inherent. Second, modeling errors on a much larger scale are a common and accepted risk in VC.
Replies
Also, can you imagine a VC/HF shop where an analyst reports to their boss that they improved their estimate of an important number and boss' response was to FIRE them for their first estimate being wrong?! It boggles the mind.
aug 4, 2025, 8:30 pm • 0 0 • view
Also, private businesses make much bigger errors all the time with no one being fired. And one reason the BLS has to revise their numbers is because they are relying on private businesses reporting data who often fudge or exaggerate or even lie and it takes awhile for the government to uncover.
aug 4, 2025, 8:32 pm • 1 0 • view
Meanwhile, I'd really love to hear David Sacks' response to Trump's latest nuclear threats against Russia, given his repeated warnings that Biden was on the verge of sparking a nuclear war with ... Russia.
aug 4, 2025, 8:15 pm • 132 9 • view
Furthermore, BLS revisions aren't about the survey getting the real number "wrong". They are about refining the survey result after additional responses come in. No one will ever really know what the "true" number for the entire economy was, all we will ever have is an imperfect survey.
aug 4, 2025, 8:21 pm • 117 13 • view
The key issue is that we want to hear how many jobs were created literally within days of the month's end, and we have no appreciation for how challenging that is. The answer is, we make estimates, and those estimates get revised as more information comes in.
aug 4, 2025, 8:29 pm • 65 7 • view
There are two camps of these people though: those who don’t understand how data works and those who can take advantage of those who don’t. The goal is propaganda and outrage on every level, not accurate data. Unfortunately neither group understands how they rely on accurate data either so…
aug 5, 2025, 6:33 am • 0 0 • view
The only way that you could have perfect numbers would be of every hire and fire required sending a form to the feds instantly Yikes
aug 4, 2025, 8:42 pm • 0 0 • view
Exactly, not to mention how hard it can sometimes be to get a Business to respond to a survey.
aug 4, 2025, 8:33 pm • 2 0 • view
Like, if you wanted to improve the accuracy - wait a month! Report July's job numbers on Sept 1st or 2nd instead of Aug 1st or 2nd.
aug 4, 2025, 8:38 pm • 20 0 • view
You know the answer is going to be "we fed the numbers through grok and prompted it to weigh in our favor" in two months time, right? And they'll argue it's *more* accurate because AI pulls from sources that the BLS would normally exclude or some other vaguely plausible hand wave.
aug 4, 2025, 8:34 pm • 1 0 • view
And the largest contributor is the revisions due to Federal Government employment (which has been down a lot due to DOGE) since the government is a late reporter.
aug 4, 2025, 8:27 pm • 0 0 • view
The relevant question is if having the earlier estimated numbers allows us to have better knowledge that waiting for more concrete numbers Because they absolutely can wait a year before publishing anything and not have to make revisions...
aug 4, 2025, 8:25 pm • 3 0 • view
Re this, was joking with a retired colleague about having to write mid-quarter progress reports (actually failure warnings) for 1st quarter first year language students. You're about five-six weeks in (and one of them was add-drop) -- but they're needed for fall sports academic eligibility....
aug 4, 2025, 8:37 pm • 0 0 • view
"Sure I can give you a number, but it won't mean much and by the time it's meaningful the fall season will be just about over." "Just keep everyone eligible through playoffs." We know, BLS, we know -- we've been there.
aug 4, 2025, 8:37 pm • 1 0 • view
Exactly. For several years the small aviation association I ran was among companies surveyed. We filled out a survey by the 12th of each month. The survey on the 12th is what’s reported the 1st Friday. The survey covers a sample of the economy. It’s like a political poll. Revisions are normal.
aug 4, 2025, 8:32 pm • 0 0 • view
a memecoin for his thoughts...
aug 4, 2025, 8:19 pm • 0 0 • view
The entire business model of VCs is that the vast majority of their investments don’t work out
aug 4, 2025, 8:22 pm • 3 0 • view
If I do the math correctly, the overall problem is that even 100,000 jobs is just too small to accurately gauge. In an economy the size of the United States, you're looking at .0005% marginal change. And every idiot clownmentator suddenly discovered and hated the BLS for this because MAGA.
aug 4, 2025, 9:01 pm • 3 0 • view
Okay but also they are saying an error of 100k is unacceptable out of 170 million? That’s a 0.06% error in total employment. Seems good?
aug 4, 2025, 8:30 pm • 0 0 • view
lmao can you imagine comparing the BLS revision behavior—sample noise, well characterized, etc.—with the delta between VC value “projections” and realized value?
aug 4, 2025, 8:19 pm • 42 1 • view
Not to mention VCs can impact the success rate of their investments yet their investments still fail the vast majority of time. BLS is just a passive data consumer with, in theory, prior to Trump, no skin in the game. Bad job numbers are just as useful bec they shine light on policy needs.
aug 4, 2025, 8:45 pm • 6 0 • view
How much was the metaverse going to be worth today again?
aug 4, 2025, 8:19 pm • 31 0 • view
What the hell even is the metaverse?
aug 4, 2025, 8:24 pm • 2 0 • view
Are we adding 'labor analyst' to the long line of 'look at me, I'm now an experts in....'? Things are pretty 'efd up' considering all the experts we have running around.
aug 4, 2025, 9:49 pm • 1 0 • view
how many times do we have to tell these people that you can't run this government like a business?
aug 4, 2025, 8:18 pm • 0 1 • view
The point here is these are POLITICAL comments, not financial science. They are feeding talking points to the Trumpists. In authoritarian regimes what's important isn't the truth, but what you can get passed off as truish enough to give people an excuse to lose interest.
aug 4, 2025, 8:57 pm • 6 0 • view
Venture capital, an industry known for its absence of uncertainty, where assessments are never revised. Of course. The contempt these people have for their followers has no bounds.
aug 4, 2025, 8:30 pm • 17 1 • view
VC investments fail 90% of the time. The 10% big winners are what supports them.
aug 4, 2025, 8:38 pm • 5 0 • view
This tweet might be some of the most efficient proof that VCs have absolutely no fucking clue what they're doing.
aug 4, 2025, 8:20 pm • 8 1 • view
Feels like David Sacks made a much bigger error by thinking Bird scooters was a viable business
aug 4, 2025, 8:21 pm • 13 1 • view
it's not like there's ever been a prominent example within living memory of every major investment bank catastrophically missing its risk assessment because they were all fucking up in the same way at the same time
aug 4, 2025, 8:58 pm • 8 0 • view
"So. David Sacks. What trades did you make today so we can include them in our up to the minute economic data?" OHHHH You'd rather not say 🙃
aug 4, 2025, 8:24 pm • 4 1 • view
My PE friends have always warned about just how f*cking stupid the general VC community is and how their sense of self worth was tied into making way to much money on a lucky pick leading them to think they are very smart because they won the lottery.
aug 4, 2025, 8:18 pm • 25 2 • view
Ask David Sacks how drug prices are going to go down by 1500%. Pretty sure that would actually get an associate fired.
aug 4, 2025, 8:55 pm • 4 0 • view
Sacks and Hasett: two among many in government who don't know what they're talking about. A consistent theme in the Trump admin.
aug 4, 2025, 8:35 pm • 2 0 • view
Good comments here, MAGA has lost its mind, and you'll all pay a high price for this idiocy.
aug 4, 2025, 10:13 pm • 0 0 • view
Naturally it's nonsense. It's David Sacks and Hasset. What else do people expect? 🤷♂️
aug 4, 2025, 8:53 pm • 3 0 • view
Oh - and did they give her a chance to explain?
aug 4, 2025, 10:00 pm • 0 0 • view
Says the Beastie Group leader whose podcast team includes (1) the guy whose SPAC companies lost 99% of their value in 3 years, (2) the guy who claimed to know more about real estate than anyone ever and subsequently went bankrupt in real estate.
aug 4, 2025, 10:17 pm • 0 0 • view
The BLS looks like fucking time travelers compared to the accuracy of his Bestie Group’s track record
aug 4, 2025, 10:17 pm • 1 0 • view
Excellent points. I would also note the scale of the ‘error’ is quite small all things considered. Given iirc about 10 million jobs created and destroyed on a gross basis every month, it’s a miracle that a mere 100k revision for net job creation is considered large.
aug 4, 2025, 8:36 pm • 0 0 • view
VCs have a very high error rate. 21.5% of Craft Ventures exit via IPO or acquisition and a good number of those die on the vine. Overall tech startups have about a 90% failure rate.
aug 4, 2025, 8:35 pm • 8 1 • view
These grifters are predators, preying on the vast majority of people who do not have statistical or scientific literacy. If there was such a superior method, why don't they cite the academic paper that gives it? Because they can't. Narcissistic frauds, all of them.
aug 4, 2025, 9:38 pm • 1 0 • view
VCs and private CEOs often keep their positions, with big bonuses despite committing fraud, which is essentially using bogus numbers. Trump is a convicted repeat fraudster, who has gone bankrupt 6X (so far), and famously adjusted his net worth by $billions based on his mood.
aug 4, 2025, 10:18 pm • 1 0 • view
All these hacks *who damn well know better* screaming “Nothing like [this thing] ever happened before Trump”... as they blame everyone and everything *except* Trump. So damn predictable, and so incredibly tiresome.
aug 4, 2025, 8:39 pm • 0 0 • view
As I understand it, the scale of the adjustment for the previous months is explained by two key things: a) DOGE cutting staff b) The scale of the hiring freezes occurring You get large adjustments when abrupt changes in the market are afoot. Next step is likely to be widespread layoffs.
aug 4, 2025, 8:30 pm • 2 0 • view
They either underestimate how sloppy things are in the private sector and in the finance sector in particular or they don’t really care but are ideological zealots with talking points used to do their MAGA Lord’s business of misleading the American public.
aug 4, 2025, 9:32 pm • 2 0 • view
2008 was much bigger, the final September payroll was 244,000 lower than the initial. Hassett is really not being honest with the "biggest in 50 years" stuff. www.bls.gov/web/empsit/c...
aug 5, 2025, 4:03 am • 0 0 • view
The guy never worked in finance. Government employees are not HF managers. Payroll numbers are closely watched by actual HF managers as they are. They understand why they need to be revised. It's part of the process.
aug 4, 2025, 8:48 pm • 5 0 • view
David Sacks is a well-known arsehole, who sticks his nose into any subject and gives his unsolicited opinion on things he knows nothing about
aug 4, 2025, 8:28 pm • 1 1 • view
Are you implying that David Sacks is full of shit?!?!?
aug 4, 2025, 8:22 pm • 3 0 • view
Sacks calling these revisions errors should disqualify him from any "leadership" (LOL) position ever again. I'd ask whether he's stupid or evil, but it's a clear case of "why not both?"
aug 4, 2025, 10:14 pm • 2 0 • view
And the assumptions in models even banks use to base lending decisions are often erroneous.
aug 4, 2025, 8:18 pm • 1 0 • view
David Sacks needs to be ignored and/or mocked at every opportunity.
aug 4, 2025, 8:25 pm • 0 0 • view
You're missing the point. It's not necessarily that BLS is bad, its just that hedge fund managers (even associates) are very, very, very smart. And important. Cant help but think a lot of the investor class would be less bitter and detrimental to society if they had a better daily affirmation.
aug 4, 2025, 8:32 pm • 1 0 • view
It’s David Sacks. If VCs were originally backer of whaling ships and their crew, picking competent ones, he exemplifies the decent into being mindless bigoted cheerleaders
aug 4, 2025, 8:48 pm • 0 0 • view