I cannot understand why Trump keeps pushing for rate cuts when (according to official numbers) job growth is holding up, while the CPI is starting to tick up a bit. Particularly because with mass deportations, we'll have plenty of job openings, shortly. Does he want to have 9% inflation again?
Absent rate cuts the US economy is a ticking time bomb. This was true prior to trump and it is more true now.
Capitalism is nearly always one banking crisis away from a stunning and rapid collapse. Particularly given how much of it is built on speculative bubbles. That said, Trump has been trying to lance the bubble with rebar since inauguration.
he can only hold 3-4 thoughts and one of them Rate cuts go brrrrr
tariffs go brrr rate cuts go brrrr inflation go HEY CUT IT OUT
Probably tied to his long-time history as a debtor and a property investor. Sort of shifts the perception of interest rates and inflation.
He wants cheap money for real estate development it’s the only thing developers care about
because under the hood its beginning to actually crack and if you dont see that you are blind and rates cuts can only go so far and only help ...rich short term and once exhausted to 0% the pain really starts
Private sector job growth isn't "holding up," & government numbers are unreliable after DOGE nazification. Mass deportations don't open up jobs. For example, the most common requirement workers can't meet is native-language level ability (speaking, reading, writing) Korean, Spanish, German, French.
I'm also concerned the BLS has gotten unreliable. But if Trump's DOL was cooking the books, they should make the job growth look weaker (and inflation look lower) in order to provide the rationale for rate cuts.
Yeah, they're crooked, not smart. If they knew how to cook the books without getting caught, they probably wouldn't have needed Musky or Russian hackers.
Same reason he keeps pushing for tariffs. Cheap debt is good in his book, & that's all there is to it
Yeah he has no idea what “inflation” even is
Stop trying to determine a logic or some form of strategy to anything #Trump does; he thinks barely one step ahead at a time and cannot make the connection between cause and effect. All he thinks is interest rates go down = Trump debt payments go down.
He doesn't care about consequences, monetary theory or cause and effect. He just wants cheaper stuff, trade-offs be damned.
Yes, actually. His whole administration is a series of active sabotage operations aimed at utterly ruining American society. They're not operating in good faith. They want America to collapse so they can rule the ruins.
“Reducing the number of immigrants will increase job availability for US citizens” is an economic fallacy.
Oh, it's going to crash the economy worse than the tariffs. Cutting 5% of the labor force will cause a steep recession by definition. That said, it will create conditions where there's tons of job openings even in a recession, because it's caused by artificially restricting the supply of labor.
It’s artificially decreasing the demand for labor, too. Immigrants spend money too, and at a high proportion of their paychecks.
True enough. But my understanding of the economic analyses is the primary impact beyond the direct removal of folks from the labor force is inflationary. Worker shortages in food production + construction raises the cost for almost everything tariffs didn't touch.
Do you actually believe his MAGA are going to go work in the fields picking veg? Because that’s the sector he’s destroying, which destroys the farmers, which destroys the markets, which … follow it on down.
Of course not. But the point is free/easy credit with low interest is supposed to juice up job growth, but businesses can't expand if they can't find anyone to hire, and we're creating the conditions for a labor market shortage. So we'll have a steep recession + plenty of open jobs .
He doesn’t understand the link between monetary policy and inflation, all he thinks is that lower rates mean smaller interest payments on the loans his personal company depends on.