But the longer the current dynamic drags on then even in a best case scenario the more resources future US governments will need to rebuild state capacity that underpins great power status
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State *credibility* seems to be the main problem? Resources can rebuild capacity in time, but it will be much harder if everyone believes that a maniac will be elected in 4 yrs to trash it all again. As for diplomacy, clearly people who dealt in good faith with post-2016 US are credulous idiots.
aug 26, 2025, 6:56 am • 3 0 • view
What do you see as the possible source of a durable political consensus for rebuilding state capacity? Or an elite consensus for rebuilding independent institutions?
aug 26, 2025, 6:42 am • 0 0 • view
Where my pessimism kicks in is that my hunch is there needs to be a severe financial shock to the US system at a time when the GOP is in power to create space for comprehensive reform, debunk stale elite consensus and long term discredit the hard right. Like how 1929 led to the New Deal
aug 26, 2025, 6:47 am • 19 6 • view
Or perhaps better precedents would be how the crashes of the 1840s/50s (2008) created the basis for the much bigger shock of 1873
aug 26, 2025, 6:50 am • 5 0 • view
Much more than this is necessary. I find it obvious that the current regime is not willing to give up power anymore, no matter future election outcomes. The next transfer of power won‘t happen by peaceful means. Whether small scale violence or full civil war will depend on the US military.
aug 26, 2025, 6:55 am • 0 0 • view
That’s how l think as well, and the fact that you do as well makes me feel…better? Except it’s a terrible thing to think
aug 26, 2025, 6:51 am • 0 0 • view
Maybe the pope can help. The corrupt decision to vote for Trump and the failure to stand up now, indicates that there is a perversion of morality and that it is disconnected from action. A society will fail if people just optimise actions against their local oft manipulated utility gradient.
aug 26, 2025, 2:14 pm • 0 0 • view
The moral decay has spread. Alligator Alcatraz, remigration, anti-renewables,… these are all things which people babble out or accept which are immediately or by simple extension highly immoral. Instead of listening we should tar and feather these guys or at least make them watch ABBA musicals.
aug 26, 2025, 2:17 pm • 0 0 • view