Meanwhile SNP and Plaid make hay out of the whole thing to present the case that independence/sovereignty association are the only way to escape authoritarianism and chaos unleashed by a Reform UK government. It gets messy very quickly in ways the UK security state can't handle
This arcs back a bit to what drove me nuts about so much EU/UK covid debate when too often the second question after the balance of public health/human rights implications were discussed should have been "but wait a minute does the state even have the capacity to enforce this"?
Reform will go into this thinking it has the will of the people on its side and walk straight into a massive policing crisis it does not have competent people to handle
LARPing Trump will look less attractive by 2028 anyway if Miller's dash for glory ends up with riots and gunfights in US cities
As a slight aside to this point, it is utterly inexplicable to me that ICE have not run full-on into a person standing their ground with an AR in the entrance hall of their own home yet.
There's apparently been a case of someone shooting some masked people *pretending* to be ICE who turned up on their doorstep, so it's probably going to happen sooner or later.
A reasonable chance that the currently very small pro-independence faction of Welsh Labour suddenly gets a lot bigger as a matter of political survival.
I guess I’ll believe in the viability of Indy as a political force when Plaid consistently poll better than Reform, who are equivocal at most on *devolution*
I just have an extremely strong prior that Welsh independence is the future and always will be when the collapse of support for Labour after a century of being a single party support is probably going to *still* a produce a Senedd that’s 2/3rds unionist or close to that
That's fair and would generally be my view normally, but with a scenario this chaotic all sorts of odd things might happen. The bit I'm not looking forward to as a Welsh speaker is the likely repoliticisation of language issues over the next few years.
the UK has neither mixage nor brassage in its policing and army functions with no UK/Federal police in Scotland apart from British Nuclear and MOD police and locally raised territorial army units Reading the papers in the National Archive about the NI crises of 1967-1975 highlighted the problem
Ethnic Irish Units were kept out of NI until the merger of the (Irish) Royal Irish Rangers and the (British) Ulster Defence Regiment in the 1980s. Liverpool Irish troops were turned back at the docks in the 1960s