IMV it's worse than that. It's a huge distraction in generating hopes for some new hegemon that shows up to make it all better rather than facing the more likely reality that the EU needs to prepare for a long era of geopolitical chaos.
Replies
Hopes where, do you mean? Not in the EU presumably?
sep 1, 2025, 10:19 am • 5 0 • view
Even in the EU. What I find so telling about the "OMG China" stuff is that while it reflects deep fears, it also operates on the assumption that if the US impales itself on its own internal contradictions there will inevitably see some other actor (AKA China) that will step in to create order..but..
sep 1, 2025, 10:20 am • 15 2 • view
...but I view that tendency to assume that hegemony is the default state of the global political economy or military environment to reflect a fundamental failure of strategic imagination in a lot of econ and IR coded analysis in academic traditions shaped by a century of US dominance
sep 1, 2025, 10:22 am • 17 1 • view
So to arc back to what the sentiment in the EU about "rising China" stuff, I think in worrying about China as the next hegemon it risks becoming a distraction from an IMV more likely outcome where neither China, India or the EU, or anyone else has the capacity to create global order.
sep 1, 2025, 10:23 am • 9 0 • view
tbh, it's a take that needs 4000 words rather than a social media thread.
sep 1, 2025, 10:24 am • 8 0 • view
I get the impression the EU actually fears the rise of a concerted Brics or other EM bloc (remember this ghastly thing? www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKN6...) but I guess it depends whom you talk to.
sep 1, 2025, 10:25 am • 1 0 • view
Lol, that's so retro
sep 1, 2025, 10:27 am • 2 0 • view
But the crux of my view is that the EU Commission as well as Member State governments have too many people that both fear the emergence of a new hegemon aka China and in the process assume that this next hegemon will emerge by default once the US collapses as a geopolitical actor. But..
sep 1, 2025, 10:29 am • 7 0 • view
...but my view is that global chaos is the default state and the last 80 or so years of a global system (more or less) was the exception not the rule. If you think surviving global disorder is the challenge, that then requires different preparation than what you'd do to handle a future hegemon
sep 1, 2025, 10:30 am • 17 0 • view
One thing that is horrifyingly obvious is the amount of people who assume whatever they do, the world will continue to be a place governed by rules A quick glance of history tells you just how unusual that is, and we should be fighting tooth and nail to keep it
sep 1, 2025, 10:32 am • 10 1 • view
The longer this order functions the less people are connected to the underlying system and how it works.
sep 1, 2025, 10:59 am • 1 0 • view
Someone watched Kill Bill Vol 1 and got very excited.
sep 1, 2025, 10:33 am • 0 0 • view
why fear something that is never going to happen though?
sep 1, 2025, 10:28 am • 0 0 • view
That's the crux of my point in terms of how the last 80 years of US dominance shaped not just intellectual outlook of scholars but how entire academic disciplines from IR to economics to Global History are structurally coded. Hegemony is assumed to be a default state in ways I think are flat wrong
sep 1, 2025, 10:32 am • 6 0 • view
it takes only a few minutes of thought to realise that the self-interest of major EMs - Turkey, Russia, China; India, Venezuela, Brazil etc etc etc are rarely if ever aligned
sep 1, 2025, 10:36 am • 1 0 • view
That's more thought given than a lot of colleagues shaped in particular, often US-coded, sub-disciplines
sep 1, 2025, 10:44 am • 5 0 • view
Alliances of convenience last as long as they are convenient. You can be best friends with a personalist dictator today and a bitter enemy tomorrow. And the Russia/India/China relationship in particular has a lot of historical baggage hidden under the surface that can erupt if circumstances change.
sep 1, 2025, 11:29 am • 0 0 • view
Right and China and India are only ever a misguided dam project away from open conflict.
sep 1, 2025, 10:46 am • 1 0 • view
Partly they big it up because it gives them an excuse to do things domestically - in this case "you have to do what DG Trade says or you'll all be speaking Chinese".
sep 1, 2025, 10:38 am • 2 0 • view
But most of the global south isn’t really in fear of speaking Chinese (Fwiw I think China clearly has its eye on & will succeed in imposing order on its own near abroad but they won’t replace the US elsewhere in part because they don’t want to - they think Russia is crackers for getting into MENA)
sep 1, 2025, 9:12 pm • 0 0 • view
The won't replace the US but they're already all over Turkey, Africa and South America (I assume)
sep 1, 2025, 9:21 pm • 0 0 • view
That’s all driven by commerce, they’re not seeking any hegemonic role there
sep 1, 2025, 9:23 pm • 0 0 • view
ownership of ports and the like is possibly a bit more than commerce (to be clear they won't replace the US)
sep 1, 2025, 9:41 pm • 1 0 • view