India's current geopolitical free agent status also foreshadows where the EU is heading if/when Russian ceases to be such an acute threat and if/when the US continues down a path of isolationist populism or even internal armed conflict set by Donald Trump
What Europe and Canada does next is the question that interests me most. Canada seems to be at the acceptance stage. Europeans are still in denial.
Russia ceasing to be an acute threat = russia doesnt exist as a unitary entity any more = the EU would become a major player. It's clear there's space for only one unifying entity in this continent.
I'd like to bet that the one unifying entity won't be "Upper Volta with rockets" and it's 125m vodka-sodden degenerates. But in my less optimistic moments, I fear "there was only space for one, so we achieved zero" would be a very European outcome. 😀
A Europe that is merely a free status agent and not an influencer of geopolitics in its own right is a Europe that will have failed in establishing itself
Which has, I think, an interesting rider: the incentive for the European far right is therefore *against* a RN/Lega/Fidesz anti-EU/wrecker strategy and towards Meloni’s more entryist/pragmatist style. Which in turn is a very powerful incentive for the likes of the Union to hold the line.
The likes of the Thuringian CDU need a clatter and to be told: they want what *you* have so you wait for them to move to *you* and tear chunks off *them*, you idiots. God help and forgive us all, but Soder may have it right.
Trump is creating an opening not just for China, but also for the EU to build closer ties with Brazil, India and South Africa. bsky.app/profile/chro...
We are being forced to look to ourselves and elsewhere in commerce and defence. We’re probably acting too slowly. I see an awful lot of attention being paid to the US as if we were not entirely external to it. That’s not very forward looking. We need to look away from the US culturally too.
Internal conflicts are, in my opinion, more likely than isolationism. Drumpf didn't prove to be an isolationist, and the technofascists that are in line to take over after him are definitely not isolationist. We all heard Vance in Munich, didn't we?
He has "ideas" for Europe. Notthat we have to accept any of that crap.