I doubt global US dollar and bond market dominance will last that long once you get shootouts in American cities between blue state National Guard units and federal forces
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The foundations of American global economic and military hegemony are based on assumptions about the stability of the US political system that look increasingly out of date
sep 2, 2025, 9:24 pm • 62 7 • view
The US is not going to have a civil war. There is zero appetite among the citizenry to actually do anything other than make whiny posts, and that's for both sides.
sep 2, 2025, 9:39 pm • 0 0 • view
A civil war wouldn’t start with involvement of the citizenry. You can easily see scenarios where the National Guard refuses Trump orders in certain states, effectively mutinying, giving Trump a reason to send in the Army. A State v Federal clash is not completely unimaginable.
sep 2, 2025, 10:40 pm • 0 0 • view
And on the independence of the US legal system. Put it this way: where would you be happier storing your IP and/or your assets right now, the USA or the EU?
sep 2, 2025, 9:32 pm • 8 0 • view
Why do you think there will any blue state Guard units shooting at anyone except those whom the president commands them to?
sep 2, 2025, 10:09 pm • 2 0 • view
I think things will feel (confusingly) normal until suddenly they don’t.
sep 2, 2025, 9:29 pm • 2 0 • view
If I'm Pritzker, I deploy in advance and dare him. GOP caucus goes ape.
sep 2, 2025, 9:29 pm • 4 0 • view
Certainly not if they blow up the CME.😅
sep 2, 2025, 9:54 pm • 0 0 • view
A fantasy. Blue state politicians and MAGA politicians serve the same interests and these interests want those markets strong. A lot of chaos and violence can happen, but the scenario you are talking about can never happen. When corporations start making anti-MAGA commercials, then this can happen.
sep 2, 2025, 10:32 pm • 0 0 • view
And if there is a run on stablecoins, then a run on T bills will ensue, and then...
sep 2, 2025, 9:47 pm • 0 0 • view
sep 2, 2025, 9:52 pm • 2 0 • view
sep 2, 2025, 9:51 pm • 0 0 • view
sep 2, 2025, 9:49 pm • 1 0 • view
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sep 2, 2025, 9:46 pm • 0 0 • view