The political problem Trump presents for Keir Starmer is that keeping the US on side now requires increasingly absurd performances of self-abasement which Starmer's rivals within the Labour Party and the wider UK Left will use to fuel growing anger and frustration with Starmer among Labour's base
Trump is rambling through his speech with lies, half-truths and fantasy. Meanwhile, I'm still feeling nauseous from Starmers fawning comments on a deal which it basically amounted to him selling out the UKs integrity to get. Money isn't everything - time politicians learned that.
It's a bit odd watching a lot of UK journalists on tv wax enthusiastically about a Trump state visit to the UK without considering the possibility that the way this visit is being conducted might accelerate Starmer's fall from power.
What’s Starmer’s alternative? No one likes the absurd abatement. But the UK is incredibly dependent on the US - especially where security is concerned. It might be satisfying to imagine being a student political calling Trump out, but a grown up government can’t really afford to
Macron I think strikes a better balance in terms of maintaining a minimum level of dignity. Starmer may have few choices, but how he engages with them will have domestic political consequences.
And operating on the assumption that Trump is a reliable partner who wouldn't turn around and stab the UK in the back on a dime is not really a sign of grown up government
tldr version bsky.app/profile/garv...
Again, don’t disagree. But it’s not a problem fixed overnight - and the benefits far outweigh the short term costs in security and fiscal terms.
Difficult to quantity how much of our predicament is down to Brexit, we certainly have defense dependencies that stretch before and beyond our years of EU membership, but it can't have helped.
Merz strikes a more independent tone too and Germany is arguably as dependent as the UK, certainly more than France. There's definitely a clearer steer for the bureaucracy from Merz.
Both Merz and Macron have access to EU resources, so they can afford to be more independent from the US. The UK doesn't have that luxury.
Trump stabs everyone in the back on a dime-the really newsworthy story would be when he didn’t do it
Trump cannot talk sensibly about any real matter of politics, economics or trade, he’s an idiot with no real comprehension. They’re relying of flattering his ego into making agreements which may never materialise.
problem is that starmer has is I really believe in the background trump and his allies and threatened the city as well as higher tariffs on steel and JLR ... it is blackmail and outside of the EU we donlt have the shield that france and more so Germany has
The thing is, previous choices by the French, often much-derided by the UK punditry, give Macron freedom to be able to strike that balance. Starmer is on the tail-end of nearly seventy years of doubling down on the USA as the essential, indispensable, keystone of UK foreign policy.
And for all Macron's troubles, for different structural reasons I suspect whether RN or PS future French Presidents will strike the same balance
In a sense Meloni is providing the lead on how to dodge and duck and dive and weave and play your cards shrewdly from the European hard right in that regard
meloni is on the nutters side. as a result, she gets some forgiveness...
To be fair, Italy and the pragmatically amoral management of chaos is a bit like South Africans and scrums; you occasionally wonder are just they deliberately creating the conditions to do more of what they’re very good at and so clearly do with enthusiasm.
Perfect analogy 🇮🇹 🏉
France and the UK both reacted rationally to US actions in Suez, but the rational reactions were different. The French distrust that the USA would always be a reliable ally if engaged with has proven the better bet because it retained freedom of action better. That, plus the weight of the EU.
There's also a psychological dimension in the UK towards the US that you don't get in other large European states (or not to the same extent.) Clingy, needy, constantly looking for validation about the Special Relationship, much of their identity bound up with being included in this alliance.
The EU proved to be an institutional space where post-imperial Euro countries could reinvent themselves & face up to changed realities. But the Special Relationship took that place for the UK - the EU was a necessary economic evil but was not regarded as a key part of the new post-imperial identity
Starmer didn't need to bring over Trump for this song and dance. Playing nice doesn't mean you have to bring the fucker into your country that by large hate him and already hates you too.
But that reiterates to me that I think Labour would have also won handily last year *had they not pledged to stay out of EU/SM/CU*. It's the rod he's made for his back that is the most palpable thing
Follow Canada's example? Trump isn't even invited to Canada nevermind given a state visit. Conversations between PM Carney and Trump are private and professional.
Everyone else is abasing themselves before our Dear Leader, so why not your PM?
Also, yes there is a European dilemma here but why should the UK shoulder the political burden for everyone else
The UK & EU becoming capable of full self defence + role wrt Ukraine encompasses timing questions. Equally, when, in the US domestic politics spiral, does UK government work to sustain the ‘special relationship’ fail a basic moral sniff test, if it hasn’t already? What should the UKG do (then)?
There’s an argument that the U.K. lacks the supply side capacity to cope with any radical, rapid re-orientation away from the USA. E.g. the recent reports on warship construction being shifted to Spain due to problems at H&W in Belfast.
Yep. The best plan may be to keep quiet and hope not to be noticed. But of course Westminster delusions of grandeur get in the way.
Or they've considered that possibility and are in favour of it. Journalists love drama, the world burning down around them is just more content.
Yep. bsky.app/profile/impl...
Thus clearly demonstrating Englands true character, unprincipled craven sucking up to whoever runs America, confirming post world war two we have always been Americas possession to do with as it pleases, and now by extension also Israel and Putin`s too.. So much for "sovereignty", it has none. 🤣
The moment Starmer stops kowtowing he invites reprisals from MAGA.
The fact they put performance before Starmer trying to keep Trump onside on security says more about his critics than it does about him.
What do you think the security implications would be if, instead of Starmer and the UK state shamelessly fawning to Trump, he just treated him with the kind of politeness and respect shown to other foreign leaders?
Perhaps fewer weapons to Ukraine?
That's a fair point. Personally I believe that Europe should further ramp up its support for Ukraine on the assumption that Trump has no commitment to UKR and may well screw her over whatever we do, but I appreciate that this is itself a, er, challenging plan.
And if they cared - also among floating left-ish voters who supported them last year but might not do so again.
Why can't they just understand & accept its geopolitical diplomacy. He'll be gone one day & the relationship with the US needs to be uninterrupted & longstanding. It's not pretty to some but, needs must, surely 🤷♀️
"The wider UK left" = the actual left. Labour aren't left. Starmer certainly isn't.
For the UK, sovereignty has become dependence à la carte
I can’t think of a single thing Starmer has done right since election except offer multiple proofs that he is & always has been a far right apologist-his Labour label was just a way to get elected-you Brits are so fucked by the elite system & by your pathetic FPTP voting system
Surely they did some sort of 'risk assessment'before the invitation was extended?
Starmer is doing a damn good job of fueling anger and frustration towards him all by himself.
What would be the fallout for the City of London if New York would stop being an international banking hub? Or would it benefit? If dollar lost its privilege (without any other currency taking mantle of global currency), how would that impact? Compare and contrast with Ireland (Pharma and Apple).
Especially as Trump will domestically do something that is objectively beyond the pale, and Starmer will have to contort himself to explain why it’s actually ok. But as you say, just a wide open goal for Burnham with the membership.