Trump is assuming that Europe (inc UK) wrings their hands and abandons Ukraine in a vain hope to keep US “on side” (whatever that means in the current context) Alternatively it finally forces Europe to accept that we need to declare independence from US, with all of the short term disruption

The Least Worst case scenario would see the US in a very precarious position, both on trade and wrt foreign policy elsewhere - China, for instance…

Don't dream. Europe won't move, they are as Trump. Look how much Russian gas is purchased by Europe now. And Europe will finance the rearment of Russia like the west did in the 30s in Germany.(Sorry for m'y english)

You may well be right

Not sure that a new Churchill exists.

I know what you mean… Carney and Macron could, perhaps, provide the necessary leadership, but I’m just glad it’s not me having to navigate this mess

Macron will do nothing. He is not De Gaulle. He prepared France to accept fascism.