FEDWATCH: Despite worries about the job market, some signals (PMI surveys and NFIB small-business indicators) now “point to an upturn .. a striking development considering Powell’s concerns ..” 👀 #NFP
Replies
Seems weird that Powell would not had access to these data before the Jackson Hole speech. No?
aug 25, 2025, 10:03 pm • 0 0 • view
*have had
aug 25, 2025, 10:10 pm • 0 0 • view
aug 25, 2025, 6:24 pm • 0 0 • view
So, no rate cuts then? Has anyone told the market about this?
aug 25, 2025, 6:44 pm • 0 0 • view
Is data reliable? I don’t believe anything coming out of this administration.
aug 25, 2025, 6:21 pm • 0 0 • view
The data is from private surveys done by PMI & NFIB. Do you all read?
aug 25, 2025, 6:35 pm • 1 0 • view
It’s not a striking development if you separate your politics from your economic and financial analysis.
aug 25, 2025, 6:31 pm • 0 0 • view
Carl, what is the source for these numbers? Who reports? Who compiles? I think that needs to be the MO from now on when reporting on statistics like this. Can we trust this good news? Thank you.
aug 25, 2025, 6:22 pm • 1 0 • view
I posted the links for PMI & NFIB. These are private surveys & not conducted by the Feds. See the links and judge for yourself whether ir not the data is trustworthy.
aug 25, 2025, 6:31 pm • 2 0 • view
Thank you! I appreciate that you took the time to share this with me.
aug 25, 2025, 8:44 pm • 1 0 • view
sorry, *how* many months ahead?
aug 25, 2025, 7:27 pm • 0 0 • view
#CookingTheBooks
aug 25, 2025, 6:29 pm • 2 1 • view
Summer is a seasonal time, yes?
aug 25, 2025, 6:21 pm • 1 0 • view
these numbers are dog shit and mean nothing
aug 25, 2025, 6:16 pm • 3 0 • view
They might get this one wrong. Won’t be the first time.
aug 25, 2025, 7:54 pm • 0 0 • view
If the data is sus, reporting on it is a choice. Make good choices Carl
aug 25, 2025, 6:16 pm • 6 1 • view
Did you check out PMI & NFIB to see if they are sus? Checking is a choice, so make good choices drdoofenschmirtz.
aug 25, 2025, 6:33 pm • 0 0 • view
Huh?
aug 25, 2025, 7:35 pm • 0 0 • view
House of cards
aug 25, 2025, 6:54 pm • 2 0 • view
Good!!
aug 25, 2025, 6:51 pm • 0 0 • view
Carl gave the source of the information as PMI and NFIB. Here is info for PMI. www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pmi....
aug 25, 2025, 6:27 pm • 2 0 • view
Info for NFIB. You can look these up on that hand-held thing you call a phone by using Google. www.nfib-sbet.org/About.html
aug 25, 2025, 6:27 pm • 2 0 • view
This chart is suspect with “Siz months ahead” and all of ‘25 has u-turned? Your links explain what the PMI should be, but I couldn’t find a link to the original source of this chart.
aug 25, 2025, 7:46 pm • 0 0 • view
If you understood business, you would know that business always lives in the future, & forecasting 6 months ahead is not unusual. The stock market lives on "futures". "Indicators" are for a u turn in 2025. Figure out what those Indicators are. People like you have forgotten how to work.
aug 25, 2025, 8:45 pm • 0 0 • view
I understand six. I don’t understand the chart saying “Siz months ahead” which makes me think the chart is AI generated and not real.
aug 25, 2025, 9:31 pm • 0 0 • view
Something else to research and find out if the chart is AI generated. Even if it were AI generated, that doesn't mean the chart is wrong or dubious. AI is only as good as the data fed into it.
aug 25, 2025, 9:36 pm • 0 0 • view
Research is all about finding the answers to your questions. Keep going.
aug 25, 2025, 8:40 pm • 0 0 • view
To what degree are we still trusting these numbers?
aug 25, 2025, 6:14 pm • 11 0 • view
Go to the sites and see how the data is gathered.
aug 25, 2025, 6:29 pm • 1 0 • view
Can we trust this reporting? The data, I mean.
aug 25, 2025, 8:07 pm • 1 0 • view
GOP tax transfer to the wealthy always gives a small bump at first, it also always ends in disaster as the piper needs paying. Yeah, no one thinks a significant upturn of any kind is happening. I look at the chocolate chip index
aug 25, 2025, 6:40 pm • 8 0 • view
Of course we can no longer trust data coming from this administration.
aug 25, 2025, 6:14 pm • 24 0 • view
Right?
aug 25, 2025, 6:16 pm • 2 0 • view
These are not Government Data but from private surveys.
aug 25, 2025, 6:18 pm • 9 0 • view
Who collected the surveys?
aug 25, 2025, 7:28 pm • 0 0 • view
Do we know the government has not affected their survey results in any way?
aug 25, 2025, 6:20 pm • 2 0 • view
You can go the sites yourself ( I posted the links) and educate yourself on how the data is gathered.
aug 25, 2025, 6:29 pm • 0 0 • view
That is a Gazillion Dollar question - we made it possibly for a very opaque administration which also can intimidate anyone and adjust numbers - Putinize America.
aug 25, 2025, 6:24 pm • 2 0 • view
So he should not cut?
aug 25, 2025, 6:15 pm • 2 0 • view
Are those real numbers or were there drawn on with a sharpie?
aug 25, 2025, 6:20 pm • 0 0 • view
Does anybody know which industries make up the survey participants?
aug 25, 2025, 6:19 pm • 1 0 • view
If you are seeing an upturn in the job market, it’s because the Felon is making people who work in the administration say what he wants them to say. Which means it will be a lie.
aug 25, 2025, 8:20 pm • 1 0 • view
“Regional PMI outlook siz months ahead” How many months is siz? And yeah I don’t trust a single number that comes out of anything like this because if anyone publishes a number Badgolf Trumpler doesn’t like he ends their career
aug 25, 2025, 6:21 pm • 0 0 • view
FAKE NEWS
aug 25, 2025, 6:31 pm • 0 0 • view