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Jack Scrambo @scrambojambo.bsky.social

that’s more like a proof of concept than anything remotely viable for NASA missions, and it’s long in the past. None have ever managed to take up even a fraction of their needed payload, and the fail rate keeps getting worse and worse.

jun 21, 2025, 2:51 pm • 0 0

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Kimmo Kannala @kimmok.bsky.social

Where do you get that payload info from? So far I have not seen a test for payload capability.

jun 21, 2025, 2:59 pm • 0 0 • view
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Jack Scrambo @scrambojambo.bsky.social

The January launch had an 8 ton payload representing the weight of 10 Starlink satellites. SpaceX says they expect payloads to run 100-150 tons, maybe even 150-200 to be viable. Given that, it’s pretty dumb that v2 is both bigger and heavier than v1

jun 21, 2025, 3:08 pm • 0 0 • view
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Kimmo Kannala @kimmok.bsky.social

Best info about v1 capability is Elon stating that v1 could lift 45 tons. That seems reasonable, even though it is from an unreliable mouth. v3(or v4) will have 50% more engines and more fuel. It was/is planned to be the first one that try to carry other than test equipments.

jun 21, 2025, 4:06 pm • 0 0 • view
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Jack Scrambo @scrambojambo.bsky.social

Elon is a liar, so let’s stop right there. Any statement directly out of his mouth regarding the capabilities of any of his products are at best puffery, and often cross into blatant fraud. Did v1 ever successfully lift off with a 45 ton payload? Or did “Elon say” it could?

jun 21, 2025, 4:08 pm • 0 0 • view
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Kimmo Kannala @kimmok.bsky.social

So, you have no clue what Starship capability is. Just as I thought.

jun 21, 2025, 4:13 pm • 0 0 • view
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Jack Scrambo @scrambojambo.bsky.social

I asked you a genuine question about the v1 launches, I wasn’t attacking you. Don’t take an uncomfortable truth about Elon Musk personally, even his employees knot it. Did v1 take up a 45 ton payload? Or did Elon just say it could? This isn’t a gotcha, I do not know the answer.

jun 21, 2025, 4:16 pm • 0 0 • view
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Kimmo Kannala @kimmok.bsky.social

They load it with equipment they think they can bring down. bsky.app/profile/kimm... If we ignore what Elon stated, we must believe what the industry leader SpaceX states. I see no need to test payload capability before v3 or v4 is robust. (100t is less than 6% of stage2 total mass)

jun 21, 2025, 4:22 pm • 0 0 • view
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Kimmo Kannala @kimmok.bsky.social

V1 (and v2) have only tested with weight it is estimated to be able to bring down and land. So it is futile to align the test equipment as cargo/cargo capability. SpaceX can do the math, I cannot, neither can Elon. But I trust the best rocket manufacturer for rocket math (not Elon).

jun 21, 2025, 4:06 pm • 0 0 • view
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Kimmo Kannala @kimmok.bsky.social

If it is be able to lift only 100t in expendable mode, it anyway would be a cheap replacement for SLS.

jun 21, 2025, 4:06 pm • 0 0 • view