College football & the NFL Draft @ Sharp Football Analysis | Previously: ESPN Stats & Info, Bleacher Report, numberFire https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/author/ryan-mccrystal/
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A&M is relying more on the quick passing game this year. And they have they weapons to do it: 👍KC Concepcion: 8.7 YAC per rec 👍Mario Craver: 10.5 YAC per rec They'll need big plays from those two to hang with Notre Dame on Saturday night. More stats like that in my matchup breakdown:
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DJ Lagway is trying to become the first Florida QB to beat LSU in consecutive seasons since Tebow
Tennessee is without both starting cornerbacks. But Gunner Stockton has completed just 25% of his his passes at 15+ yards downfield since the start of last season.. and 55% of those throws were uncatchable per @sportsinfosolutions.com More stats on this Georgia-Tennessee showdown here:
The Ravens are celebrating their 30th anniversary on Sunday... with the Browns in town. Terry Pluto has a good article on how callous that is.
haha. we've all been enjoying your work for a very long time now Bruce!
Take me back to when ESPN looks like this. (and check out those headlines! Imagine a CFB world were Rich Rod goes to Bama! Schiano to Miami! Paul Johnson to NC State!)
Tennessee is without both starting cornerbacks. But Gunner Stockton has completed just 25% of his his passes at 15+ yards downfield since the start of last season.. and 55% of those throws were uncatchable per @sportsinfosolutions.com More stats on this Georgia-Tennessee showdown here:
Virginia Tech has ended up in 3rd-and-long situations on 29% of its sets of downs (ranked 102nd). And has converted 0 of those 15 3rd-and-longs. This is not ending well for Brent Pry..
Either way, I think we'll know if Georgia is typical Georgia or not after this game. Because I'm confident Tennessee does not have the talent to be an SEC powerhouse this year, especially with the injuries on defense. If UGA is back to its old self, this game should be pretty easy.
Predicting the Georgia/Tennessee game this week feels incredibly hard. Maybe Georgia is settled now after two warm ups and just steamrolls them 38-10 like a few years ago. Or maybe UGA's struggles we've seen are real and these are just two 8 or 9 win teams, and someone pulls off a close 24-20 win
Indiana is favored by 48.5 points against Indiana State on Friday night. According to this database, that's the most points Indiana has been favored by going back at least 30 years www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/database
Adjusting from the first week of NFL action. Week 1 was up and down, but it was good to have football back. Breaking it all down with hundreds of facts, splits, trends, and player analysis for every NFL game in the Week 2 Worksheet.🔽 www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-...
My projected CFP Bracket entering Week 3 Am I crazy to have 3 Big 12 teams in the field? Maybe? But I think the schedule sets up well for the Big 12 to have at least three 10-win teams. And I don't know that any 9-3 SEC team is going to be so obviously deserving that they jump a 10-win team
Of course. And she did with KState/ISU the week before too. She's gotta take it more seriously. But those who run the AP Poll pay attention to stuff like that it will be taken care of. She'll figure out or she'll lose her vote. But it's unhinged fan behavior to bully her for it.
Looks like Haley Sawyer (the AP voter who forgot USF in her top 25) was bullied into deleting her Twitter account. If anyone knows her, invite her to Bluesky! We're much friendlier here and we'd love more CFB writers around. Maybe @jimalexander24.bsky.social @adamgrosbard.bsky.social know her?
A&M is relying more on the quick passing game this year. And they have they weapons to do it: 👍KC Concepcion: 8.7 YAC per rec 👍Mario Craver: 10.5 YAC per rec They'll need big plays from those two to hang with Notre Dame on Saturday night. More stats like that in my matchup breakdown:
ICYMI: here's my Georgia Tech-Clemson matchup breakdown
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Clemson ranked 110th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks last season. And we know what LaNorris Sellers did to that defense. Can Haynes King pull off a similar performance? Here's my breakdown and pick for the Georgia Tech/Clemson showdown on Saturday:
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Clemson ranked 110th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks last season. And we know what LaNorris Sellers did to that defense. Can Haynes King pull off a similar performance? Here's my breakdown and pick for the Georgia Tech/Clemson showdown on Saturday:
This is why I can’t muster empathy for Charlie Kirk. He worked hard at ensuring our children face as much gun violence as possible. My empathy is reserved for these kids and that community.
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) on the shooting of Charlie Kirk: "Political violence, unfortunately, has ramped up in this country ... I think there are people who are fomenting it in this country. I think the president's rhetoric often foments it."
I had not watch any of Texas A&M's first two games so I just went back to watch some in preparation for the A&M/Notre Dame... Marcel Reed! My goodness he is locked in right now.
Mark Gronowski's average time to throw is the longest in all of CFB. That is clearly not the plan for the Iowa offense. He's holding the ball almost a full second longer per play than Cade McNamara last year
Big Noon really needs to go away. A 10am local kickoff in Utah?
It's a shame Georgia Tech/Clemson isn't a night game. The atmosphere in Bobby Dodd would be incredible. It's been a long time since they've hosted a game that felt like it matters as much as this one. I'm not even sure when the last time that would've been. Maybe 2014 when they hosted Clemson?
We have a Senior Sports Data Scientist role open on the ESPN Analytics team! www.disneycareers.com/en/job/-/-/3...
The Eric Dickerson of birds
No one knows how to scout kickers. They make no sense. Most of the best college kickers end up being terrible in the pros. Just look at the Lou Groza Award winners. A shockingly small number made any impact in the NFL.
Here's what I wrote in my rookie class review on the 49ers selection of Jake Moody in 2023. Since getting drafted, Moody hit 58% of his kicks of 35+ yards, ranked dead last among kickers with at least 25 att at that depth 🔗 www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/49e...
Gonna do a weekly thread to check in on some notable rookies around the NFL.. 🧵Week 1 rookie thread starting here
I watched The Long Goodbye last night. And all I could think about the whole movie was one of my favorite tweets of all time.
Florida edge-rusher LJ McCray broke his foot against USF. He was a 5⭐ recruit expected to make a big impact as a pass-rusher this season Gators have also been without DT Caleb Banks so far this year. Status uncertain for Saturday.
Lowest rate of facing 3rd-and-long situations (among teams with 2 FBS games) Indiana, 4% of sets of downs Nebraska, 8.7% USC, 11.5% Texas State, 11.9% Rutgers, 13.2% Ole Miss, 13.5%
Can't play quarterback with unblocked rushers coming through the A-gap. Frankly an incredible throw from Caleb given the rush.
Good conversation in this episode on Bill Belichick and banning the Patriots from the facility. 100% agree with @davidubben.bsky.social’s take that it doesn’t really matter but it does give an indication of how Belichick doesn’t fully understand the role of a college coach and recruiting.
Explosive play differential (plays of 20+ yards gained - allowed) ✅Top of P4: Arkansas +14 Oregon +13 Ole Miss +12 USC +11 Texas Tech +11 ❌Bottom: OK State -7 Kentucky -7 VT -5 UNC - 5 Rutgers -4 Stanford -4 SMU -4
Auburn's upcoming schedule: vs South Alabama @ Oklahoma @ A&M vs Georgia Arnold has to figure this out quickly, or it's not likely to go well
Nice start to the year for Auburn, so apologies for this dose of reality: Jackson Arnold took a sack on 30% of his dropbacks vs pressure last year, ranked 134th. So far this year, he's taken a sack on 36% of his dropbacks vs pressure. via @sportsinfosolutions.com
File this under "probably nothing, but worth keeping an eye on": Oregon's defense has contacted opposing RBs at or behind the LOS on just 30% of carries. That would have ranked 129th last year per @sportsinfosolutions.com If that's a real flaw, it probably won't be exposed until Penn State game
An interesting game on Cal's schedule: @ Virginia Tech for a Friday night game on Oct 24. I'd be very nervous about that one if I were Brent Pry. A loss to Cal under the lights in Lane Stadium... probably not gonna survive that one.
I took the under on Cal's win total this year and I'm gonna lose that one. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is legit. Cal was an easy win on the schedule for the rest of the ACC before the season, and it now looks like they're gonna win a few conference games.
Also... that Clemson pass rush😧 I tried to warn you👇
Bill Belchick. Defensive coaching genius.
VERY different. No other coach is trying to flip the roster every single year like Deion. He's taken on 128 transfers since he got there, far and away the most. He's taken over 30 each season. Only one other school has taken 30+ even twice in than span (ASU, and their 3-year total is still only 78)
Because Deion has been actively forcing players out of the program. And then also getting mad at the players who leave on their own accord.
Colorado's upcoming games: @ Houston Wyoming BYU Good time for a QB change. All winnable (though also losable) But then.. at TCU Iowa State @ Utah All very likely losses. I'll be stunned if Staub makes it through.
Staub looks good in a few snaps against Delaware and now he's the starter over Kaidon Salter and their 5-star freshman. Feels like Deion is trying to make a point about sticking around and not entering the portal... which, given the messenger, is just plain funny.
And I don't want to see anyone dismissing this because it was just Grambling... he's far from the first freshman to play against an FCS opponent. And they certainly don't all light them up like that.
Freshman with 300 yards, 4 TD and a 90% completion rate over last 20 years Saturday - Julian Sayin, OSU 2021 - CJ Stroud, OSU 2018 - Zach Wilson, BYU 2013 - Jameis Winston, FSU That's Julian Sayin and three first or second-overall draft picks.
Nebraska's defense has allowed 10+ yards on 18% of rush attempts, ranked 127th. Better figure that out before hosting Michigan in 2 weeks.
Kansas State's post-game win expectancy from SP+ vs ISU - 78% vs ND - 89% vs ARMY - 68% They're 1-2. I wouldn't assume they bounce back, bc bad early results can easily snowball in CFB. But I wouldn't count them out in the Big 12 just yet either.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed was knocked out of last week's game and did not return. Elko said he's fine and could have continued playing if he were needed. LT Trey Zuhn also hurt in the game, but he's expected to be back this week.
South Carolina LT Josiah Thompson and starting CBs Vicari Swain and Brandon Cisse were also knocked out of last week's game. Status unclear for all of them. But potentially a devastating blow if they remain out vs Vandy.
South Carolina TE Brady Hunt was injured on Saturday. He had some "testing" after the game but status is unclear. Gamecocks host Vandy on Saturday night in a must-win game if they want to remain a playoff darkhorse
Notre Dame RG Charles Jagusah remains out vs A&M. Irish used Sullivan Absher and Guerby Lambert at RG in his absence vs Miami. ND yads before contact per att when running behind: LT/LG - 2.7 RT/RG - 0.6
⬆️updating previous note Jaheim White is out for the year. As is starting WR Jaden Bray. Gonna be a struggle for Rich Rod's team to put points on the board this season.
Will Johnson (ARZ CB) allowed 4 catches or 32 yards with 3 pass breakups.
Andrew Mukuba (PHI S) started and allowed just one catch in coverage. Also made 4 tackles, 0 missed tackles.
Jahdae Barron (DEN CB) failed to win a starting job but got on the field for 15 coverage snaps, primarily in the slot, and did not allowed a catch.
Jacob Parrish (TB CB) allowed just one catch in 36 snaps in coverage against ATL
Malaki Starks (BAL S) played 98% of the Ravens defensive snaps, allowing 2 completions in coverage
Adding some stats from rookie DBs from Sports Info Solutions today..
Kinda sounds like a lot to give up 2 picks for Tanks Bigsby, but Eagles had 12 picks (including expected comp picks) in the 2026 draft. That's excessive given the state of their roster, so easy to part with more if they felt it was needed to get a deal done.
Here's my post Week 2 Top 25 I'm much higher on Auburn, USF and TCU than the AP Poll
South Florida playoff odds have gone for +2500 to +450 in two weeks.
Ouch. Rich Rod’s offense had nothing going for it except Jaheim White. That’s a devastating blow. Id be shocked if WVU made a bowl game.
On Sept. 20, Utah will play at home at 10 am local time, and Michigan State will play a conference game at USC at 11 pm ET, both on FOX. This stuff ain't good for fans, man.
Explosive play differential (plays of 20+ yards gained - allowed) ✅Top of P4: Arkansas +14 Oregon +13 Ole Miss +12 USC +11 Texas Tech +11 ❌Bottom: OK State -7 Kentucky -7 VT -5 UNC - 5 Rutgers -4 Stanford -4 SMU -4
UNC also ranks 134th in pace of play 🤦♂️ They're trying to run an NFL offense from 2007 in college football in the year 2025.
Fewest offensive plays per game Miami OH, 42.5 Ball State, 50.5 La Tech, 53.0 👣North Carolina, 53.5 Old Dominion, 54.0 Cincinnati, 54.0 UNC ran 49 plays vs TCU, 58 vs Charlotte. Not gonna beat many good teams in college football like that.
West Virginia RB Jahiem White was injured in loss to Ohio. No official update yet, but Rich Rod said "it didn't look good." White is WVU's entire offense right now. Backyard Brawl is on Saturday. Then at Kansas, home vs Utah, @ BYU... gonna get ugly if White is out awhile
Texas RB Tre Wisner and DL Alex January missed game vs SJSU. There was no reporting about the injuries prior to the game. Sounds like they might have been able to play if it were a bigger game. TEX likely won't be challenged again until Week 6 at Florida
Michigan TE Marlin Klein did not play vs Oklahoma due to a foot injury. He led MICH in receiving in Wk1. Max Bredeson started in his place and Zack Marshall saw increased action. Hogan Hansen also returned from injury but didnt play much. MICH plays CMU in W3 followed by a road trip to Nebraska
GT QB Haynes King did not play vs Gardner-Webb with "lower body injury" r-Fr Aaron Philo made first career start. Would be shocking if King doesn't play Saturday vs Clemson, but sounds like he might not be 100%
Auburn RB Damari Alston did not play on Saturday due to a shoulder injury. Had 16 att for 84 yards vs Baylor in Wk1. AUB has South Alabama this week but they'll want Alson back by Wk4 when they visit Oklahoma
Minnesota RB Darius Taylor injured last week (looked like a potential hamstring injured, which caused him to miss games in both 2023 and 2024). A.J. Turner, transfer from Marshall, is probably next man up. Big game @ Cal for the Gophers on Saturday
LSU C Braelin Moore sprained his ankle vs La Tech. Questionable vs Florida on Saturday. He was replaced by DJ Chester, last year's starter at center. Moore is a transfer from VT brough in to upgrade the position, but at least there's experienced depth behind him.
LSU TE Trey'Dez Green injured vs La Tech and was on crutches. Potentially a critical loss as LSU hosts Florida on Saturday.
Gonna do weekly threads rounding up the notable injuries from around college football Week 2 thread🧵
That's all for today. All these stats are from TruMedia. I don't have access to great coverage stats from them. So I'll add more tomorrow for rookie DBs from another source.
Abdul Carter (NYG) 3 pressures on 22 pass-rush snaps (13.6%) For context, Brian Burns generated a 14% pressure rate last season
Mason Graham (CLE): 1 pressure on 23 pass-rush snaps (4.3% pressure rate)... not ideal against a Bengals OL with very low expectations
James Pearce Jr. generated 4 pressures and a 27% pressure rate 73% of his snaps came when the dropback probability was 80% or higher. He's definitely being used as a pass-rush specialist (and it worked)
Jared Wilson (NE LG): 11.3% pressure rate allowed plus a holding penalty (yikes) Last season, guards across the league allowed a double-digit pressure rate in just 12% of their games They did that while also committing a penalty in just 5% of games
Armand Membou (NYJ RT): 0 pressures allowed in 25 snaps in pass pro Rookie OTs with 0 pressures allowed in debut since 2020 (min 25 pass pro snaps: Taliese Fuaga Paris Johnson Nicholas Petit-Frere Rashawn Slater Austin Jackson
Josh Simmons (KC left tackle): 8.7% pressure rate allowed on 46 snaps in pass pro That rate would have ranked 34th out of 35 qualified LTs last season (Wanya Morris last year: 8.5%)
Kelvin Banks (NO left tackle): 4.3% pressure rate allowed on 53 snaps in pass pro That rate would have ranked 8th out of 35 qualified LTs last season (Fuaga's rate was 6.4% at LT last year)
Will Campbell (NE left tackle): 7.5% pressure rate allowed on 53 snaps in pass pro That rate would have ranked 31st out of 35 qualified LTs last season
Travis Hunter: 6 rec, 8 tgt, 33 yards 0 rec on 2 targets at 10+ yards downfield
Mason Taylor: 1 catch for 20 yards Not a big role so far, but only 8 rookies ran more routes than his 21.
Tyler Warren: 7 rec, 9 tgt, 76 yards Targeted on 38% of his routes, 6th highest among any player with 20+ routes in Week 1 (before MNF)
yeah his vision was a concern I had as a prospect. I did not think he was a special prospect, but the athletic traits could allow him to be productive behind a strong OL
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 10 att, 82 yards 4 att, 0 yards when hit att or behind LOS 6 att, 82 yds when crossing LOS without contact
Omarion Hampton: 15 att, 48 yards 10 att for 26 yards with 7+ defenders in box (NFL RB average last year was 4.1 yds/att)
Dylan Sampson 12 carries, 29 yards, 8 rec, 64 yards Browns rookie record 8 catches. Hit at or behind LOS on 7 of his 12 rush attempts
Ashton Jeanty: 19 att for 38 yards He was hit at or behind the LOS on 15 of those 19 carries (gained 14 yards on those plays) 4 att for 24 yards crossing LOS without contact
Cam Ward was 12-28 (42.9%) in his debut 2-13 on throws 10+ yards downfield Took a sack on 6 of his 18 dropbacks vs pressure
Gonna do a weekly thread to check in on some notable rookies around the NFL.. 🧵Week 1 rookie thread starting here
Some good background on those “Saving College Sports” commercials in this article. The article lays out the facts without getting too political. But here’s the unfiltered version: don’t buy into propaganda funded by a billionaire who is close to Trump. www.nytimes.com/athletic/660...