It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
Chief Analyst, Insights and Analysis, at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation working to solve UK Poverty
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It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
Without the security of affordable housing, a stable job & adequate social security, it's hard to take risks, invest in your future or be productive at work. Rising living standards aren’t just a desirable by-product of growth, they're an essential ingredient to a strong economy.
A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.
Thanks for picking this up. It's based on series A2FC in tab '6. Real AWE' in the spreadsheet at www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan.... We've waited a few months to be sure it's not a blip, but the earnings slowdown (mainly due to higher inflation) feels a real effect to us.
A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.
We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.
When coupled with above target rate inflation, falling vacancy numbers and rising unemployment, it how much shows the Chancellor needs to focus on tackling falling living standards there. See jrf.org.uk/news/new-jrf... our previous analysis. (5/5)
Lack of earnings growth is deeply worrying and should trends continue and the budget be after 11 November (when September earnings data comes out), the latest picture may well show no earnings growth in the latest year. (4/5)
What did the May Monetary Policy Report say? The Bank doesn’t look at whole economy regular wages or CPIH inflation, and were too high on private sector earnings and too low on CPI inflation. They had both series falling over the next six months. (3/5)
Latest annual figures are flattered by positive earnings growth between May and September 2024. Why this stagnation? It’s due to higher inflation since September 2024, with non-inflation adjusted (nominal) earnings growth very similar over both periods. (2/5)
Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)
Anyway, thanks for engaging with the report and material even if you remain a sceptic.
Thanks, I do think sequences of groups, each building on previous ones make it more objective. And I do think that thinking of what is needed for sufficiency rather than what people are having to go without is a good question. But we do have a range of data to look at, all with their pros and cons.
See www.jrf.org.uk/a-minimum-in... for the methodology (used consistently since 2008). You'll see from www.lboro.ac.uk/research/crs..., separate MIS's for London & for rural Scotland has been constructed. I do think a good way of determining a decent living standard is to ask people what they need.
Thanks. This isn't the first way we would recommend raising tax revenue. We'd first look at Capital Gains Tax and National Insurance Contributions on investment income which improve the fairness and efficiency of the tax system and raise revenue. See www.jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for our thinking.
Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...
See committees.parliament.uk/work/8675/pe... for the excellent Work and Pension Select Committee report and jrf.org.uk/households-l... for the latest Households Below a Minimum Income Standard report. (4/4)
The report says "a guiding principle should be [State Pension] provides the amount needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living. The Government should set a strategy to reduce ... the proportion of pensioners living below this level in future." (3/4)
As I told the committee, the proportion of pensioners not reaching MIS, which sets out what the public agree is needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living, has actually gone up even faster than the main poverty measure. (2/4)
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.
Come join @jrf-uk.bsky.social! These are really important roles, helping us to achieve real *positive* change.
Yes - to sugar-coat massive welfare cuts in that Budget: www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...
Indeed - huge kudos to @learnworkuk.bsky.social for their great work here.
It shows planned £1.8 billion extra investment in employment support over the next four years could help 45,000-95,000 more disabled people into work. 3.2 million people face benefit cuts, meaning maximum share expected to move into work is 3%
NB: this is the paper the stats in my quote comes from: learningandwork.org.uk/resources/re....
My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.
Well done to @rachelcasey.bsky.social and @jelliott94.bsky.social for their great work looking at how to unlock the potential of young people furthest from the labour market, which should definitely be a Govt top priority: www.jrf.org.uk/work/unlocki.... Give it a read!
See www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert... for some excellent work from @carlaonion.bsky.social looking at deep poverty in Scotland, which needed a lot of work to understand FRS data for Scotland.
The Office for Statistics Regulation say "We request that the press release is updated by Friday 4th April to remove reference to the 383% figure and that this figure is not used going forward." Thanks to them for the speedy resolution.
Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."
This is now being investigated by the Statistics Regulator, following three separate complaints, including from me. See issues log at osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/casework/.
Busy day of analysis ahead - sadly looks like we'll be adding extra loses to these example families (see itv.com/news/2025-03...). Follow @jrf-uk.bsky.social for our insights.
My partner currently gets PIP, so yes I know that fear.
Yes, I'm hoping the £5bn is gross and total savings, but with so few numbers, it's hard to be definitive. In last OBR report, the WCA descriptor changes were scored. Reversing those cuts and then cutting £5bn set out 'only' gets a £3bn spend reduction in 29/20. See obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl... for £2bn.
To put it another way, this is of the order of 15,000 people every month losing out once the cut comes in, in Nov 2026. We will have years of disabled people feeling fear of their next reassessment, knowing the goalposts have been moved to mean 100,000s more will lose out.
We don't know how much of the cut of £5bn is from PIP or even if it is net or gross of the £2bn scored from previous Conservative changes. If say £3bn comes from the PIP cuts, this would mean 600,000-700,000 disabled people in these situations missing out by 2029/30.
You need a score of 12 for enhanced rates. This means those newly missing out will have difficulties in at least 6 areas. Thus both groups have significant difficulties across a range of activities. See benefitsandwork.co.uk/personal-ind... points system.
In terms of PIP cuts, I have been thinking about the basic maths of needing a 4 within a score of 8 for standard daily living PIP component. Given there is only one 3pt score, those newly missing out will have difficulties in at least 4 areas.
Great thread from @iainkporter.bsky.social.
We excluded Scotland cases and looked at working-age recipients only.
Thanks - overall caseload grows broadly linearly from 2021 according to DWP Benefit Expenditure tables, as do growth rates by PIP / DLA levels on Stat-Xplore. Extrapolating growth rate by PIP/DLA element for 2021-23 to 2029/30 matches expenditure tables very well and is the basis of the calculation.
Thanks to @theguardian.com for covering @jrf-uk.bsky.social work (see www.theguardian.com/society/2025...). “A government that came to office pledging to end the moral scar of food bank use clearly should not be taking steps that could leave disabled people at greater risk of needing to use one.”
Spend on recipients entitled to a single standard rate of PIP, either mobility or daily living element, is less than £5bn, so savings would have to be made from recipients of enhanced rates or both elements of PIP to achieve a £5bn cut, amount reported earlier by ITV
Around 80% of the forecast caseload growth and around 90% of the spending growth in PIP for working-age recipients between 2025/26 and 2029/30 is likely to be for people who get both the 'mobility' and 'daily living' components of PIP.
@jrf-uk.bsky.social has analysed caseload data and can see much of the forecast growth in PIP spending is directed at people with significant difficulties across a range of areas. Over half of the growth in spending is from people in receipt of the higher rate in both PIP elements.
The fact I had to look at 400 rows for welfare changes in last 30 fiscal events (i.e. >10 per event) shows the "absolute lack of stability" for recipients @RattusMalumus describes here x.com/RattusMalumu..., with 20 of the 30 resulting in less money being spent on welfare.
In terms of our methodology, we looked at impact on spending of welfare policies scored by the OBR at end of forecast window for each fiscal using the Policy Measures database at obr.uk/data/ & converted these into real terms using GDP deflator, so they're comparable.
Overall £6bn cut would be largest welfare cut since summer Budget after 2015 election & 5th highest the OBR has 'scored.' £5bn cut to PIP would be the 4th highest working-age benefit cut and most targeted cut of that scale, with other higher amount cuts coming from wider groups.
See jrf.org.uk/social-secur... for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis from me looking at the c400 welfare changes (mostly cuts) scored the OBR since 2010. A £6bn cut containing a £5bn PIP cut is unprecedented - and I use that word advisedly.
The Times today: £5bn/1m = £5,000/disabled person, i.e. greater than 3 of 4 PIP rates. Unless 1 of 2 numbers in headline is wrong, this has to take money away from severely disabled people on PIP higher rate, as lower rate recipients don't get £5,000/yr. Obscene to consider this!
This is particularly egregious as a similar number in a Press Release was corrected earlier this week: disabilitynewsservice.com/dwp-refuses-....
The figure Iain refers to is one of the most misleading statistics I have seen in 25 years as a professional statistician. It focuses on the rise in UC (dark blue) and ignores existing ESA cases (light blue), when both groups are on sickness benefit.
Plus I recommend listening to @helenbarnard.bsky.social and @frasernelson.bsky.social. Remember there is a huge difference between reform with additional support, and arbitrary cuts: thetimes.com/radio/show/2....
Thanks to @alexisconran.bsky.social for having my on his @listentotimesradio.bsky.social show with Damian Green to discuss the mooted disability and sickness benefit cuts and why cuts shouldn't be countenanced. Listen from 36mins in at thetimes.com/radio/show/2....
Thanks so much to Lisa Aziz for having me on her @lbcnews.bsky.social show. You can listen back at 00:44 here: globalplayer.com/catchup/lbcn.... [Warning that I am still recovering from a cold so am rather nasal!]
I did say we had some great visualisations! Here are the headlines from the UK Poverty. Read the full report at www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-2... and our examination of what future poverty levels could be here www.jrf.org.uk/work/economi....
Start by catching me on LBC News at 6:40am!
Big day tomorrow with the launch of @jrf-uk.bsky.social's #UKPoverty2025 report. We'll hopefully be on a range of TV, radio and print media. Do follow our main channel to see some brilliant material bringing the statistics to life, as well as hearing why we need change NOW.
Final session at #UKStatisticsAssembly2025 on international perspectives. Things that resonated was the strength of a system is how well it responds to a crisis and that the UK stats system is held in high regard across the world, but needs to "hardwire agility." Looking forward to improvements!
This is a crucial post. Do apply if you feel you can make a difference and good luck with your application!
Excellent other panel members too. Jabeer Butt from the Race Equality Foundation on the need for strong action as well as strong analysis, while Celestin Okoroji spoke about inconsistencies between levels of ethnic categories, as well as looking at outcomes and ensuring comparability.
Third session of the day on Equalities data at #UKStatisticsAssembly2025, featuring Aleks Collingwood from @jrf-uk.bsky.social Insight infrastructure team, describing some important work on paucity of quality data. See insightinfrastructure.co.uk for details.
This might mean breaks in the series and needs to be done safely but we are struggling to know how key social phenomena are changing, including on poverty, employment or even economic growth.
At very interestingdata linking session at @UKSTATISTICSASSEMBLY2025. My thoughts are the importance of generating momentum in using data linking to improve statistics, especially given business as usual social surveys are actually and quickly getting worse on a number of fronts.
In terms of discussion, lots of talk about getting basics right and building confidence back in sources like LFS and measuring the tails of distribution. Top 1% and very lowest incomes where @jrf-uk.bsky.social destitution study helps.
Also important points on household unit of measurement disguising hardship for women and how stats just on the value of unpaid care aren't helpful in generating improvements.
At #UKStatisticsAssembly2025. Great contribution from Liz Hind @womensbudgetgrp.bsky.social in economic statistics session including reference to economic progress being measured as being able to afford essentials chiming with @jrf-uk.bsky.social work.
Mon 27th: - Some interesting DWP research evaluations, on the Cost of Living Payments and on the Household Support Fund
Fri: - ONS's wealth and assets survey is finally out after quite a delay
Thurs - A methodological paper on private rents methodology from ONS - DWP's Below Average Resources publication, updating their work on the measure developed by the Social Metrics Commission
Some interesting stats out this week, which will be accessible from www.gov.uk/search/resea... once out: Weds: - DWP Annual Abstract of Stats. Want to know the benefit rates all the way back to the 1940s. This is where you look!
Currently hard at work finishing our @jrf-uk.bsky.social UK Poverty report. Do look out for the report the week after next and join our launch webinar at 10.30am on the 30th if you are around: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....
Thanks to the Work and Pensions Committee for inviting me to give evidence on rising pensioner poverty. Even though risks remain lowest for this group, we definitely don't want this social policy success story to be unwound! See parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/... for full session.
Makes sense, but need to be clear with users what series is best for what purpose, given country / regional poverty levels will no longer align with small area stats totals.
Update from DWP on methodology for their Children in low income families small area stats: www.gov.uk/government/c.... They are moving away from constraining to HBAI country / regional poverty totals and will include imputed Scottish Child Payments. Changes mean they will need to revise back series.
Do apply if you want to work on the economics of what we think is one of the key phenomena of the current age, increasing household economic insecurity.
Data, AI and hats! What more can you ask for? Excellent presentation from @mjhibbett.bsky.social at figshare.com/articles/med... on issues of cataloguing a *lot* of hats. The only thing it lacks is more of a punny title. I'd suggest 'Off with their hats: The Piaggi Collection's Journey to Figshare'
Today’s ‘Get Britain Working’ white paper indicates a fundamental reset in approach to supporting disabled people into work. It's the right approach, but at the moment mostly words, and Govt needs to follow through on good intentions.🧵1/7 www.gov.uk/government/p...
Reminds me of previous work from Adam that showed the 2004/05 interim child poverty target might have been said to have been met with a lower undercount of benefit on the survey used to measure progress relative to admin totals. All this shows the critical importance of robust statistics.
Excellent paper from @adamcorlett.bsky.social. Worrying and agree that "ONS or government departments should be capable of more sophisticated work than we have undertaken here (given that they have access to micro-data on personal taxes, benefits and more." This work should be prioritised.
Good thread from @rachelleearwaker.bsky.social. Another way of looking at this, is that UK rents have gone up by almost a quarter in the last three years, since rents started rocketing, but only went up by 5% over the three years before that. In London, the increase over the last three years is 27%!
Not quite back to 1937, but you can see the gradual decline over 60 years here from @jrf-uk.bsky.social's Guarantee our Essentials Full Report at www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...
This is really important work from @jrf-uk.bsky.social and Scope.
Looking for someone with quantitative analysis superpowers & a good head for policy & politics to join my team & help us make the case for a more adequate & supportive social security system & better quality jobs. Please share with others & let me know if you'd like to have a chat about the role
Come and join my team! This is a really exciting time to join @jrf_uk, and apply your skills to some of the biggest questions facing the UK today - and generate some answers too!