Raise your hand if your bingo card for the past seven days had: 1. US takes 10% stake in intel 2. Trump fires Fed Reserve Governor 3. US appeals court declares emergency tariffs illegal You win.
CNBC senior economics reporter. Husband, father, journalist, guitarist and fly fisherman. (The Lies-man joke has been made. It’s not fresh. It’s my father’s father’s name, bastardized at Ellis Island. Move along.)
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Raise your hand if your bingo card for the past seven days had: 1. US takes 10% stake in intel 2. Trump fires Fed Reserve Governor 3. US appeals court declares emergency tariffs illegal You win.
Ftr. I said when Trump started doing tariffs, he should do it thru congress. (Ftr, so did some others). Now, we have MONTHS of additional uncertainty waiting for the USSC. If you’re an importer, what do you do now? You wait. Just in time for Xmas. Goods shortages? Maybe..
More volatility in trade, GDP and inflation data ahead so we less clarity on the economy. Hey @justinwolfers.bsky.social , what’s ur “intraday tariff chart” look like now?
Ftr. I said when Trump started doing tariffs, he should do it thru congress. (Ftr, so did some others). Now, we have MONTHS of additional uncertainty waiting for the USSC. If you’re an importer, what do you do now? You wait. Just in time for Xmas. Goods shortages? Maybe..
Holy wow. Many tariffs struck down by appeals court www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
MOVING FAST: Senate Banking announces Sept 4 confirmation hearing for CEA Director Stephen Miran for the vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board. Don’t know if he can be confirmed by the full Senate and sworn in in time for Sept 16 meeting but you have to believe that’s the objective.
Statement from Abbe David Lowell, attorney for Fed Gov Lisa Cook (Part 2): “…We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent his attempted illegal action.”
Statement from Abbe David Lowell, attorney for Fed Gov Lisa Cook: “President Trump has taken to social media to once again “fire by tweet” and once again his reflex to bully is flawed and his demands lack any proper process, basis or legal authority...
Statement from Fed Gov Lisa Cook: “President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”
Mordor coming to life here in Jackson Hole.
Hassett likely to be Trump's pick for Fed chief, though Warsh is more qualified, CNBC survey finds www.cnbc.com/2025/08/20/h...
Trump approval rating still negative while the public sours further on Democrats www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/t...
No doubt the system can and should be improved. But you have to identify the problem and if you’re starting with politics, you’re starting in the wrong place. Also probably not optimal to be proposing 9% staff and budget cuts at the bls, as contained in Trump’s FY26 budget.
The President also suggested there were other post election revisions. But the next revisions came out Dec 5, when Sept and Oct were revised UP by a combined 148k. So there remains not a single piece of data supporting the president’s assertion that the data is rigged politically.
President Trump claimed again in a @cnbc.com interview today that the -818k annual benchmark revisions to jobs came out after the election in Nov, showing the data was rigged to hurt him. But he was fact-checked on air by Joe Kernen who pointed out the report was actually released in Aug 24.
The other irony is that it has been left to the more liberal economists to point this out.
The decline in jobs and growth should be seen as proof of what economists have been saying all along. Instead, economists supporting the administration suggest what I call the idea of “immaculate taxation” that somehow this money is being collected and no one is paying it and it has no effect.
The irony of denying the impact of tariffs on job creation is that all economists, but especially conservative ones, have long held that when you tax something, you get less of it. So tariff revenue running at a $350b annual rate in July is a major tax on consumption.
7. So the evidence is clear: Biden appointed a secret Republican operative who issued negative job and inflation reports to help Trump get elected. And Trump appointed a secret Democratic operative who bolstered Biden’s numbers. 8. Either that, or the president’s assertions are simply ridiculous.
6. The revisions are standard practice, done when the BLS gets actual payroll and tax data from the states. From 2014 to 2023 they ranged from -0.4% to +0.3%. The 2024 final revision was large but within the range at -0.4%.
4. The Aug number was preliminary. The final number released in Feb 25 was -598k. So, in fact, under McEntarfer, a more negative number was released before the election than turned out to be the case.
3. If there was any politics being played (which there wasn’t) it means it was… done largely by Trump’s appointee overstating biden’s job growth over 9 months. (Which he didn’t).
2. The revisions cover the period from April 23 to March 24. But McEntarfer took office in Jan 24. So the data being revised was collected largely under her predecessor William Beach, who was appointed in 2019 by Trump.
Trump says the -818k 2024 benchmark payroll revisions show BLS commissioner McEntarfer was political and incompetent. Let’s look at the facts. 1. The revisions were released in Aug 2024, not Nov 15 as the president said. So the BLS release showing far less job growth came 3 mos. BEFORE the election
“The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemns the removal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the unfounded accusations leveled against the work of the agency… A totally apolitical group. files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/...
Goldman estimated today the economy has only felt about half of the increase from tariffs already in place. The stock market has moved on from tariffs. Not sure the economy has.
All the new tariff stuff is before whatever happens Aug 1. The fed seems right to be cautious here on inflation. Powell’s response to me, “…yes, we are learning more and more. It doesn't feel like we are very close to the end of that process.” Market didn’t like that much and maybe it shouldn’t. 2
On a day when I put a potential argument from the administration to chair Powell — that perhaps the tariff situation was more certain so rates could be lowered —- the president threatens 50% tariffs on Brazil, placed 25% tariffs on India and ended the de minimis exemption. 1
Just when you thought they had done all they could do to promote a single product ….
Has anyone established if Nabisco is paying a promotional fee to The NY Times crossword? I think some disclosure is warranted here.
Bessent, Warsh, Hassett are the leading Fed chair contenders, CNBC survey finds www.cnbc.com/2025/07/29/b...
Ok, so it’s also anti-Canadian but it’s true that the company harvesting a lot of our menhaden is Canadian owned. And yanking its permit would be a major step in reducing the harvest.
Truth (social) stranger than fiction? Pres. Trump just posted a pro-environmental video advocating for an end to reduction fishing for menhaden (a vital, overfished forage species.) The action supported in the video would be a major advance to save our fisheries. truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
I would personally prefer to see how the govt can work with private enterprise to solve the problem. But the problem is real and his proposal is a step toward addressing it. I believe govt needs to step in where the private sector fails and higher food prices for poor people is a market failure.
Before everyone gets so bent out of shape about “city-owned grocery stores” from Mamdani, it’s well to understand that the reality of food deserts in poor neighborhoods, raising the cost of being poor, is well documented. I’m not convinced that “city-owned” is the best or only solution.
Such partisanship becomes too much of a distraction to the institution. Yet leaving cedes control to the executive and undermines independence. All because Powell wants to wait a couple months before cutting rates. This is now a very real story.
Powell was basically accused of partisanship in the senate today. He’s been tough so far but you have to wonder just how much criticism a human being can take from the President of the United States. And he has to begin wondering whether staying around after a successor is appointed and amid
You have to wonder tonight how long Fed Char Powell can stay on the job and what that means for the dollar, the bond market and Fed independence. Pres Trump’s withering and boorish criticism of Powell steering rates to hurt Republicans and help Dems is now firmly embedded in the GOP and
Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/f...
Please tune into @cnbc.com Squawk Box at 830 am for my exclusive interview with Fed Governor Chris Waller.
If only past presidents had deployed the National Guard as forcefully as Pres Trump we could still: Have no workers’ rights Be in Vietnam Have segregation laws Abuse coal miners Have no women’s suffrage And that’s just off the top of my head. Assume many others.
Costs you nothing. Don’t even have to wait longer. Does good=free lunch.
I could be more clear and redundant if I said “fiction novel.”
Please welcome my wife @karendukess.bsky.social to Bluesky. She just published her second novel “Welcome to Murder Week” to great reviews. Available on Amazon, of course, but here’s a link to order from an independent bookstore. bookshop.org/p/books/welc... Bookshop.org US
A slightly better outlook in the @cnbc.com fed survey but slowdown still forecast. www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/i...
History teaches us to be very wary of promises of ideal outcomes like regime change from military ventures. Most times when the bomb drops the rubble settles in unpredictable ways.
Looking forward to being on @11thhourmsnbc.bsky.social with @stephruhle.bsky.social tonight.
These people are so stupid it hurts. @politico.com: US scrambles to bring back VOA’s Persian service amid Iran-Israel conflict
Good to hear. Thx
So proud of my amazing wife Karen Dukess and her new novel Welcome to Murder Week on sale today! Amazon calls it one of June’s best mystery, suspense and thriller books.
Stan Fischer, RIP. on.ft.com/43OI7ua #econsky
Notice that ICE keeps raiding work places to find these freeloading, illegal gang members.
Is this a Taco Tantrum? A reminder that for every one US worker who makes steel, 80 fabricate steel products. The result will be to raise steel prices domestically to the tariffed price. And there will likely be net job losses. Trump will likely have to raise car tariffs.
So there are allegedly 11m undocumented immigrants, and Trump goes after the half million we let in who are here legally and documented as part of his effort to go after undocumented criminal gang members ? I got it. Or may he just doesn’t like people with any color in their skin.
Maybe it’s best that international students don’t come to America now so they don’t take back home with them current American versions of democracy, pluralism and rule of law—you know, those things that when we do them right, make America great.
Read that story. Scary stuff.
If tariffs keep the fed from cutting, Trump should scrap them and take the rate cuts. US would save $280b annually w/ a 1 pp decline in its avg rate. Stocks could soar and cap gains taxes could kick in. Foreigners would really “pay” about 1/3rd, unlike the fake claim of their tariff payments.
Court strikes down trump reciprocal tariffs www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
Yes, the fed recently abided inflation but there was a pandemic going on and it then reversed course sharply to bring inflation under control. It’s holding the line now on cuts because of the tariff inflation threat.
…so long as the fed has an inflation mandate, the fiscal authority has limited capacity to inflate away the debt problem. You’d have to alter the fed mandate or come up w/ a new fed/treasury accord. And default is constitutionally prohibited. Worth thinking about, but we’re a long from either.
I keep thinking about this and I’m pretty sure Dalio is wrong here. You wouldn’t both default and inflate your way out of a debt problem. You’d do one or the other (I don’t think either happens). But they are not “separate” risks to debt holders. And I don’t think there’s an existing mechanism…
Watch Atlanta Fed president and CEO Raphael Bostic's interview with @steveliesman.bsky.social on @cnbc.com. They talked about rate cuts, tariffs, and the Fed's dual mandate, including current risks in employment and inflation. Watch the full clip here: www.cnbc.com/video/2025/0... #FedFMC
When the US president sources his tweet “according to news reports” he’s using a lesser standard than would be used by an average community newspaper. Or your Uncle Jack. He then opens the door for the charge to be reported by reputable news organizations who wouldn’t touch the story.
It doesn’t make sense to assert such a level of executive authority unless you believed the opposition will NEVER again hold the presidency. Congressional Republicans might want to consider that.
Come on down to Central Park today at 4:30 for my band’s annual benefit for @riverkeeper.org to help clean up the Hudson. Two sets of Grateful Dead music from the Stella Blue’s Band and lots of fun people dancing for a great cause.
JPMORGAN: “.. The trade war shock is still material. .. we now estimate an effective ex-ante tariff rate of 14.4%. This is akin to a $475bn tax hike on US households and businesses, worth 1.6% of GDP (still sitting close to the largest tax hike in the post WWII period).”
…market reaction and predictions of economic doom along with the outcry from businesses. So, does that now make extreme policies more likely? You can’t afford not to react and you can’t afford to react.
Imagine the next time the president puts in place a crazy policy like 145% tariffs on China. What if the market is convinced it’s just a bluff and doesn’t sell off, so he doesn’t back off? Believing the president would blink was the right strategy this time, but only because of the...
I think that's a smart way to look at it.
What’s weird is you could argue the tariff reductions make cuts MORE likely. Though there is still a tariff-related inflation issue for the Fed, it would appear to be at least somewhat reduced. The Fed could react now more to the actual inflation data, which has been good.
The agreement with China has not only cut tariffs, it has also restored summer vacation for Fed watchers. The first cut, which had been priced in for July, has now moved to September. July had been priced with a 69% cut probability, which now 42%. All subsequent cuts have been pushed ahead.
I was in the right place, @chrishayesg.bsky.social. Always enjoy our conversations, and it was soooo cute when you talked about old ideas like congressional approval of trade deals and following the Constitution. And sad.
More soft data on a hard landing. Upper income Americans (>$100k income) are more worried about their jobs and income and paying debts than they've been since the pandemic. (From the NY Fed). These worries still haven't shown up in much real spending or jobs data.
Call me old-fashioned, but I think it’s inappropriate for the president to call the fed chair a fool, whatever he thinks of Fed policy. Note that all FOMC voters, including the 2 Trump nominees, approved of yesterday’s decision. 77% of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey had agreed w/ no rate change.
Some people seem to embrace the political angle on fed policy, which sees only economics weakness and not the inflation threat. Kind of like closing one eye and arguing you see the world with greater clarity than everyone else.
It simply isn’t clear which side of the Fed’s inflation/employment mandate will need more urgent care. One danger is a faster reaction in jobs, eg a surge in claims, that is followed by tariff-induced inflation in later months.
I think this quote from @jasonfurman.bsky.social does a good job of explaining why the Fed will remain on hold for at least a few months: “The best thing for the Fed over the next few months is to be behind the curve, because the alternative is to risk being ahead of the wrong curve”
Brilliant to eliminate Energy Star, a program that costs $32m but delivered $40b in annual savings. None other than the US chamber of commerce tried to save it as a model of business/government partnership. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/c...
But no auction is better or worse for the Fed’s involvement. It’s entirely separate from the competitor auction.
ahead of time to markets at the rate set by the auction. This takes place after the auction.There is no effect on the public debt outstanding at the particular auction. There is, however, a general decline in the amount of bonds that need to be auctioned off over time because of the reduction in QT…
The fed’s larger involvement in the recent bond auctions is not new QE. It results in part from the reduction in QT aka the slowing of the rolloff of treasurys from its balance sheet. The fed does not participate in the competitive auction. It purchases a special allotment that is known …
“Even without further escalation of tariffs, the policies already in effect threaten to offset the benefits of the promised tax cuts,” according to a new post released today by the Tax Foundation.” taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-t...
New CNBC Fed Survey: Recession probability surges to 53%, inflation and unemployment forecasts rise. GDP outlook craters www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/w...
Torsten Slok of Apollo graphs how the earnings outlook has deteriorated since Liberation Day April 2.
Don’t drill, baby, don’t drill. Diamondback reduces drilling because of low oil prices and tariffs. “…the cost of our largest drilling input cost, casing, has increased over 10% in the last quarter due to steel tariffs.” Wonder what oil execs, who backed Trump strongly, thought would happen?
RFK Jr and Statistics:
CNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' with a look at the $8 trillion of U.S. 'exports' you may have never heard of. "American multinational corporations dominate the global trading system." "America is not being ripped off. We are dominant." youtu.be/nLCTtOb_g_w?...
Thank you. Just doing my job best way I know how. Nothing more or less.
It also ignores whether the market is too sanguine about macro tariff effects. And, now that markets have recovered, does it embolden the president to revisit his more extreme proposals? If so, is the best strategy then to ignore them cause he’ll reverse course? Tragedy of the commons. Head spinning
There’s revisionist history developing about tariffs and markets over the past several weeks. Now that the market has recovered, some seem to be saying, “See, everything worked out and the tariffs aren’t that bad.” But that ignores that the extreme market reaction specifically led Trump to back down
Retail at -2k and manufacturing at -1k may also have considerably more adjustments to make. 3/3 Can’t rule out that other areas of growth will emerge. Or that decent earnings keep stock buoyant. But it’s not hard to foresee trouble ahead in those industries that were sources of strength in April.
11k private education: cutbacks in research grants to universities 10k state and local govts: not sure on this one as it’s unclear to me if the admin is cutting back or maybe increasing some grants to states. And that’s with just a -10k on federal government which is sure to accelerate. 2/3
Here’s 70% of the April job growth and how it could be at risk in May and beyond: 51k healthcare: potential cutbacks in Medicare 29k transp & warehousing: empty ships mean job cuts 24k leisure and hospitality: the industry already reporting declines in foreign tourism 1/3
Remarkable how tariff supporters embrace what I call “immaculate taxation” —-that one of the biggest tax increases in decades could be enacted with no effect on jobs, growth or inflation. I believe many of those same folks forecast Armegeddon if the top 39% tax rate was restored.
If you know anything about how the newsroom of a major credible publication like the WSJ works. you know that the story about Tesla’s board exploring replacing Musk doesn’t see the light of day without 100% credible and backup sourcing. That can only mean one thing about Tesla’s and Musk’s denial.
Two economists argue that Harvard should give up federal funding to free itself from the shackles of government. www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
One more paragraph from Lincicome: "But there’s another, more incriminating way to make sense of the chaos: Uncertainty is the point. An unpredictable tariff regime concentrates power in one man’s hands. It rewards cronyism and punishes those without political connections." 3/3
Lincicome continues "...Their justifications contradict one another. One throughline? Trump doesn’t understand how tariffs work—and he seems to believe, quite literally, that 'trade is bad.'" 2/3
Scott Lincicome, a great trade economist from CATO, titles his latest piece: "By the time you read this, Trump's tariff policies will have probably changed." "President Trump’s tariff talk is all over the map—and so are the White House aides and media surrogates trying to explain it.... 1/3
Looks great danny. Long been an advocate of getting survey info from people who should know about their lives. Which is why all the job survey data now is worrisome. Look forward to a careful read of the paper.