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thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social

@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social

I'm not a data scientist and don't have the credentials to be. However, I'm an intellectually curious football guy who prefers empirical data to vibes.

created November 10, 2024

31 followers 121 following 43 posts

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Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Max Brosner sounds like a fictional QB in an unrealistic football movie about a former star high school QB overcomes alcoholism to take a team that started 0-8 to the Superbowl where his ex-wife is a sideline reporter and they get back together in the end.

9/8/2025, 11:06:51 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Nerds! We won! Playing Madden against the CPU, I was up 14 in the 4th QTR, and they scored a TD, and they went for 2. #Madden #Analytics #NFL

9/8/2025, 1:31:29 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

No doubt there are schematic similarities, but the QB position is objectively better. Diva WRs, like fans, judge good play calling on whether the play works or not, lol.

23/7/2025, 1:15:51 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Maybe my Google-fu is off, or Google is just garbage now, but what did Herbert say? I'm genuinely just curious.

10/7/2025, 10:48:31 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Why are the racist so obsessed with genitals? If it ain't trans people (or people the THINK are trans), it's Black men's.

9/7/2025, 9:13:00 PM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

What is with you clowns and being infatuated with triggering people.

2/7/2025, 1:05:09 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Glad baseball is moving past the unwritten rule BS. Love that celebration. I'm an Orioles fan.

1/7/2025, 10:25:40 AM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

My expectations for these people are so low that simply having a different opinion than Trump on anything earns them a victory lap.

23/6/2025, 4:33:01 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

I'm a Black man. I self-censor at work because there are things you shouldn't say in a work environment. I thought this was normal behavior. Apparently, it's oppression?

21/6/2025, 11:16:09 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

I use AI all the time. Google AI (any LLM for that matter) is not a reputable source of information.

15/6/2025, 3:09:36 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Dan is one of the few internet personalities that if he's on something, I'm watching it no matter the subject matter. He's a national treasure and should be protected at all costs.

29/5/2025, 11:34:21 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

It isn't distinguishable from parody. This can't be real.

4/5/2025, 11:42:38 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

This game is drunk.

19/1/2025, 2:35:06 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

In fairness, he was also playing against one of the greatest defenses of all time. By traditional stats, at least.

14/1/2025, 3:00:18 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

My guy saw the Herbert hot takes and was like, "Hold my beer."

14/1/2025, 2:56:24 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Darnold looks like he reverted to 2019 Darnold vs the Patriots.

14/1/2025, 2:48:54 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Feel bad for Sam Darnold. His last game and a half has been rough, and now his great season might just be remembered for these two bad games instead of 17 weeks of solid QB play.

14/1/2025, 2:27:50 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Jacson A. Bevens (@jacsonbevens.bsky.social) reposted

the Justin Herbert* discourse is in danger of getting VERY loud *who I think is awesome

12/1/2025, 12:02:37 AM | 35 1 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

People are going to overreact about a 2 game sample size with Justin Herbert if the chargers don't come back.

12/1/2025, 12:06:42 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Have no idea who Tim Boyle knows. Like you can't even go back to college to see that he was ever good. He was bad against bad competition.

15/12/2024, 7:43:41 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

I have no idea what Tim Boyle has done at any level to be on an NFL roster. He needs to be studied.

15/12/2024, 7:36:58 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

I think guys in the booth get way too much hate. But when I listen to Romo he seems to completely lack situational awareness. It's honestly shocking how bad he is.

2/12/2024, 12:12:54 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

That was such a Raiders way to lose a game.

29/11/2024, 11:19:03 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Malik Nabers is right. Drops are overblown. They suck because they're visible. The WR got open, and the QB delivered the pass, but it was dropped. The thing is, I want WRs that can get open. A WR that can't consistently get open won't drop many passes because they won't be targeted.

29/11/2024, 5:00:53 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Looks like Ben Johnson did not come up with this. x.com/FB_FilmAnaly...

28/11/2024, 6:13:38 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

I don't think the Bears have either, and that's not a shot at the Bears. That's just some Ben Johnson stuff right there.

28/11/2024, 6:09:43 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

I think the two clear best offenses in the NFL are the Ravens and the Lions. However, the Lions offense seems to be a lot more consistent. Where the Ravens have stretches where they're either unstoppable or they're just meandering.

28/11/2024, 6:08:37 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Punting there was horrible

26/11/2024, 3:52:32 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

"And we probably won't hear about it again." We never do. It was the right decision whether they got it or not.

26/11/2024, 2:30:30 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

#Analytics

26/11/2024, 2:28:27 AM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Analytics won't get credit for that...and that's the problem with people who have a problem with it.

26/11/2024, 2:28:01 AM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

What's frustrating is that they keep doing this to themselves. It's been a huge problem since the Bengal's game.

26/11/2024, 1:32:31 AM | 3 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

What is happening today? What a way to lose a game!?!??

24/11/2024, 9:19:04 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

OMG, what just happened on Washington???

24/11/2024, 9:17:59 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

I think you're purposely missing the point I was trying to convey. You have a good Sunday.

24/11/2024, 9:16:27 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

A safety was the most appropriate way to close out that Texans/Titans game.

24/11/2024, 9:13:38 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

Let's take data out of this for a second. Why would it be a better decision as an inferior team to expect to drive the field, score twice, and hope you win a coin toss or get a stop then score again? Most of the arguments against "analytics" support it.

24/11/2024, 9:09:46 PM | 2 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

So, the problem is this if you are a "mid" to bad team, your chances of winning in overtime would be less too. You're best served trying to maximize win probability if you're the inferior team.

24/11/2024, 8:55:44 PM | 4 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Kliff Kingsbury isn't escaping the allegations.

image
24/11/2024, 8:52:40 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Bears passed the going for 2 once your score down 14 challenge. Just didn't convert.

24/11/2024, 8:46:02 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

Prophetic

24/11/2024, 8:41:58 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social) reply parent

So far, he's been sacked on 23% of his dropbacks today.

24/11/2024, 7:47:23 PM | 0 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

I totally understand why the Giants moved on from Daniel Jones. I'm not quite sure why Tommy Davito is getting a chance to start unless they are just trying to get the best possible draft pick. He is clearly not an NFL caliber QB. Before today, he has been sacked on 17.6% of his dropbacks.

24/11/2024, 7:43:26 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture Aaron Schatz (@aaronschatz.com) reposted

Articles ignore the fact that a lot of us just want to mostly talk about sports without dealing with bots and trolls.

22/11/2024, 9:10:16 PM | 457 37 | View on Bluesky | view

Profile picture thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social (@thetolkienblackguy.bsky.social)

1 of the most frustrating things about football people that are anti-analytics is the belief that for data to provide value, it must lead to a good result 100% of the time. Data science is a science it's not perfect and will continue to evolve. It's about improving the probability of good results.

20/11/2024, 3:39:34 PM | 1 0 | View on Bluesky | view